Netflix Oscars Odds: 2022 Edition 

Netflix Oscars Odds: 2022 Edition 
Yinchen Niu/Variety Intelligence Platform

When “Tick, Tick … Boom!” hits theaters today, it could represent Netflix’s best hopes for taking its annual push for Oscar glory to new heights. 

A musical drama starring Andrew Garfield and directed by Lin Manuel-Miranda, “Tick, Tick … Boom!” is currently seen by Variety film awards editor Clayton Davis as having a high chance at being nominated for the 2022 Best Picture award. And as of this writing, the film garnered just about an 80% critic score on Rotten Tomatoes. 

Davis also currently views Garfield as a having a high chance of winning the Best Actor Oscar.  

Some other awards predictors may not currently be as bullish on “Tick, Tick ... Boom!” but Netflix has many other films releasing in the weeks ahead that could help it rack up Oscar nominations. 

Out next week will be Netflix’s “Power of the Dog,” a drama starring Benedict Cumberbatch that Davis as well as other film awards watchers have called a frontrunner for the 2022 Best Picture award. 

Moreover, December will see Netflix drop drama films “Don’t Look Up” and “The Lost Daughter,” which Davis views as having mid- and high-level chances at the Best Actress Oscar, respectively. VIP+ included “Don’t Look Up” as one of its most anticipated streaming titles of Q4 2021. 

While Netflix will be happy with any Oscars it wins at next year’s awards, nothing will make the company more joyful than a Best Picture award, which is something no video streaming service has yet to accomplish.  

Amazon was the first streaming service to land a Best Picture Oscar nomination with “Manchester by the Sea” in 2017, but it’s really felt like Netflix would be the streaming service that would be first to secure the top Oscar win these past couple of years. 

2020 saw Netflix’s mega-budgeted Mafia epic “The Irishman” as a Best Picture nominee, while earlier this year the streamer had its films “Mank” and “Trial of the Chicago 7” contend for the same top Oscar award. 

Awards season is far from over, so it’s possible that “Tick, Tick ... Boom!” or “The Power of the Dog” may lose critical buzz leading up to the Academy Awards in 2022.  

But even if those two films fall short of Best Picture hopes, it’s not the end of the world for Netflix.  

Just from the sheer tonnage of Netflix films being thrown around currently in Oscar predictions, it seems possible for Netflix to again be the streaming service with the most Oscar nominations and wins in 2022.   

The significance of Netflix again nabbing the most Oscar wins and nominations is that it will further boost the credibility of the streaming service’s film studio. More actors and directors would take notice of Netflix’s prestige dominance and may become more likely to work with the streaming service on a future project.  

We’ve seen that talent pays attention to what goes on with streamers’ films before. For example, Eddie Murphy became more comfortable with bringing “Coming 2 America” to Amazon after seeing how well “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” performed, the NYT reported in late February.