We’re in the final days of Screen Actors Guild Awards voting, and the nominating committee members are watching screeners and making their selections of their acting peers. Some films are surging, like Sian Heder’s “CODA” and Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza,” which could continue their momentum with nominations for cast ensemble or for their leading ladies, Emilia Jones and Alana Haim.
Other movies look to be losing steam like Guillermo del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley,” Reinaldo Marcus Green’s “King Richard” and Aaron Sorkin’s “Being the Ricardos,” all of which can get a second wind just weeks before Oscar voting opens up.
Looking to other surprising inclusions and shocking snubs, many wonder if Lady Gaga’s place in best actress for “House of Gucci” is as sure as it seemed weeks ago, following her New York Film Critics win. Her co-star Jared Leto also looks to be losing some heat, but the SAG noms can reflect the race from weeks ago, not necessarily the moment.
The SAG Awards have become one of the most critical barometers in the acting categories and best picture race for the Oscars. Snubs can either catapult or terminally damage an awards campaign. Since the cast ensemble category debuted in 1995 (the first year of the SAG Awards in 1994 didn’t have the category), getting a nom was crucial to winning the Academy’s top prize. However, three of the last four best picture winners — “The Shape of Water” (2017), “Green Book” (2018) and the reigning champ “Nomadland” (2020) — were still able to win without a mention from their peers. Does that make SAG less significant? Not exactly.
When it comes to acting winners, they’re much more reliable. Since the inaugural year, only three actors have won the Oscar without a SAG mention: Marcia Gay Harden in “Pollock” (2001), Christoph Waltz in “Django Unchained” (2012) and Regina King in “If Beale Street Could Talk” (2018).
So what can we expect this time around?
Besides Cate Blanchett having two shots at supporting actress in Guillermo del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley” and Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up,” she’s currently tied for the record for most film ensembles nominations with six (the others are Russell Crowe and Brad Pitt). If one or both films picks up the top category, she’ll surpass them.
Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast,” Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” or Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” has the best shot at being the most nominated films of the lot. All feasibly have an opportunity to either tie or surpass “Chicago” (2002), “Doubt” (2008) and “Shakespeare in Love” (1998) as the most nominated films in the history of the SAG Awards with five each. Of course, any would have to overperform and include dark horses like Jude Hill and Jesse Plemons or land in the stunts race.
Fourteen films have received a nom in the ensemble category, without any other mentions. So if you don’t buy into Troy Kotsur’s momentum for “CODA,” or are expecting precursor ensemble leaders like “The French Dispatch” or “The Harder They Fall” to break through, we could see that number increase.
Voting for the SAG Awards will close Sunday, Jan. 9 at 5:00 pm PT. The 28th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards is scheduled for Sunday, Feb. 27.
Check out the latest predictions, with the awards commentary, down below.
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UPDATED: Jan 6, 2022
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)
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Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Image Credit: Sundance - “CODA” (Apple Original Films)***
Emilia Jones, Eugenio Derbez, Troy Kotsur, Ferdia Walsh-Peelo, Daniel Durant, Marlee Matlin - “Belfast” (Focus Features)
Caitríona Balfe, Judi Dench, Jamie Dornan, Ciarán Hinds, Colin Morgan, Jude Hill - “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Thomasin McKenzie, Genevieve Lemon, Keith Carradine, Frances Conroy - “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Rachel Zegler. Ansel Elgort, Ariana DeBose, David Alvarez, Mike Faist, Josh Andrés Rivera, Corey Stoll, Brian d’Arcy James, Rita Moreno - “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Rob Morgan, Jonah Hill, Mark Rylance, Tyler Perry, Timothée Chalamet, Ron Perlman, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi, Cate Blanchett, Meryl Streep
Also in contention: “King Richard” (Warner Bros); “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix); “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures); “Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing); “Mass” (Bleecker Street); “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios); “Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix); “Dune” (Warner Bros); “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures); “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
Commentary: The push and love for Sian Heder’s “CODA” and its adoring cast have been significant coming from the Apple Original Films team. Not only do they stand a decent shot of making the final five, but they could be a serious threat to win, falling in line with past winners like “Black Panther” (2018) and “Parasite” (2019). But does that mean it can win the best picture prize at the Oscars? That’s a more significant hurdle to clear.
That’s mostly because Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” and Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” are still the favorites for the Academy. Even the dynamic ensemble of Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” is keeping it afloat in a substantial manner.
It’s fair to assume that Jeymes Samuel’s “The Harder They Fall” and Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza” have the goods to slip into the fray, especially after claiming so many critics’ prizes for best ensemble so far.
Significant boosts could be given to films like Fran Kranz’s “Mass,” which lives by its four principal actors, and Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune,” which could accomplish what action juggernauts like “Gravity” and “Mad Max: Fury Road” failed to achieve.
Read the current predictions for best picture at the Oscars here>>>
- “CODA” (Apple Original Films)***
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Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Image Credit: Warner Bros. - Will Smith***
“King Richard” (Warner Bros) - Benedict Cumberbatch
“The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) - Andrew Garfield
“Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix) - Denzel Washington
“The Tragedy of Macbeth” (Apple Original Films) - Nicolas Cage
“Pig” (Neon)
Also in contention: Peter Dinklage (“Cyrano”); Jude Hill (“Belfast”); Leonardo DiCaprio (“Don’t Look Up”); Clifton Collins, Jr. (“Jockey”); Bradley Cooper (“Nightmare Alley”); Joaquin Phoenix (“C’mon C’mon”); Cooper Hoffman (“Licorice Pizza”); Simon Rex (“Red Rocket”); Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”); Daniel Craig (“No Time to Die”)
Commentary: Predicting a Denzel Washington miss with this group may not be wise if you are still predicting him to receive an Oscar nomination for “The Tragedy of Macbeth.” Besides being the most nominated person in the category (which he shares with Leonardo DiCaprio for “Don’t Look Up”), and the oldest winner (he was 62 at the time of his win for “Fences” in 2017), every one of his Academy noms had a stop with this group.
The heat for Nicolas Cage in “Pig” has been pronounced the last few weeks, and he could muscle his way to his third nom since “Adaptation” (2002). A fun fact is Cage holds the record as the youngest winner in this category (he was 32 when he won for “Leaving Las Vegas” in 1996).
Again, along with their love for child actors, this group was unafraid to recognize Jamie Bell’s debut turn in “Billy Elliot” when he was 14. That bodes well for Jude Hill from “Belfast” (who would become the youngest nominee ever) or Cooper Hoffman from “Licorice Pizza.”
Benedict Cumberbatch from “The Power of the Dog” and Andrew Garfield from “Tick, Tick … Boom,” which are both Netflix features, feel like assured spots. If Will Smith’s frontrunner status for “King Richard” is to be justified, there can be no hiccups in his campaign when it comes to the televised award ceremonies. That’s where past winners like DiCaprio in “The Revenant” nabbed their statuette.
Read the current predictions for best actor at the Oscars here>>>
- Will Smith***
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Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Image Credit: Courtesy of NEON/Everett Collection - Kristen Stewart***
“Spencer” (Neon/Topic Studios) - Olivia Colman
“The Lost Daughter” (Netflix) - Jessica Chastain
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures) - Rachel Zegler
“West Side Story” (20th Century Studios) - Halle Berry
“Bruised” (Netflix)
Also in contention: Alana Haim (“Licorice Pizza”); Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”); Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”); Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”); Emilia Jones (“CODA”); Jennifer Hudson (“Respect”); Jennifer Lawrence (“Don’t Look Up”); Frances McDormand (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”); Sandra Bullock (“The Unforgivable”); Tessa Thompson (“Passing”)
Commentary: This category has yielded a few jaw-droppers in the last few years. Actors presumed to be nowhere near Oscar’s attention managed to pop up (i.e., Emily Blunt in “The Girl on the Train” and Sarah Silverman in “I Smile Back”). It’s hard to gauge who seems “out of it” this time around, but we should prepare for a shock or two. Could that be Lady Gaga for “House of Gucci”? Awards season is a marathon, not a sprint, and what looks certain at one point unravels and becomes questionable the next. See Amy Adams’ snub for “Arrival” (2016).
Kristen Stewart has been the critical darling for her performance in Pablo Larrain’s “Spencer,” who leads in best actress prizes. This is the real test to see if she’s just a “Film Twitter” thing or if she can go the distance.
Olivia Colman is quite beloved within the acting community and feels like a safe bet, and there’s a similar aura surrounding Jessica Chastain. So their chances for Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Lost Daughter” and Michael Showalter’s “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” could find their way into the lineup.
Rachel Zegler’s work in “West Side Story” is a trickier call because her movie should be immensely popular with the committee, and she could be along for that ride. What’s going against her in entering the field is that SAG has only ever nominated one debut leading actress in its tenure — Catalina Sandino Moreno for “Maria Full of Grace” (2004). For context, Quvenzhané Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”) and Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”) all managed Oscar noms for their first film outings.
Halle Berry has a lot of support in the community, and many in the industry are excited for her venture as a director with “Bruised,” with her performance standing as her best since her Oscar and SAG-winning role in “Monster’s Ball” (2001). Finally, she could make a play.
If there is an Amy Adams-level surprise nomination, like she was for last year’s “Hillbilly Elegy,” could Sandra Bullock fit that bill for “The Unforgivable,” which is now one of the most-viewed films in Netflix history? In this unknown season, why not?
Read the current predictions for best actress at the Oscars here>>>
- Kristen Stewart***
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Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Image Credit: Credit : Rob Youngson / Focus Features - Ciarán Hinds***
“Belfast” (Focus Features) - Kodi Smit-McPhee
“The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) - Troy Kotsur
“CODA” (Apple Original Films) - Jamie Dornan
“Belfast” (Focus Features) - Woody Norman
“C’mon C’mon” (A24)
Also in contention: Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”); J.K. Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”); Jared Leto (“House of Gucci”); Colman Domingo (“Zola”); Jeffrey Wright (“The French Dispatch”); Mark Rylance (“Don’t Look Up”); Idris Elba (“The Harder They Fall”); Bradley Cooper (“Licorice Pizza”); Ben Affleck (“The Tender Bar”)
Commentary: The SAG supporting actor category has averaged four out of five nominees translating to Academy attention since 2015. That year also marked the first time the committee awarded an actor (Idris Elba for “Beasts of No Nation”), who was not nominated for the Oscar.
Looking ahead, SAG goes beyond the Oscars in nominating child actors. This season has many in the conversation, but at the top of the list is Woody Norman in Mike Mills’ stunning “C’mon C’mon.” As a British kid doing an American accent (better than most adults who attempt it), it’s impressive what he accomplishes. In addition, the group has recognized past nominees like Jacob Tremblay (“Room”) and Freddie Highmore (“Finding Neverland”), who both failed at their Oscar bids.
The blend of TV and film actors might give slight edges to contenders like Colman Domingo, Jesse Plemons and Jeffrey Wright. But, I don’t know if it’ll be enough. An interesting note about Bradley Cooper is that only two of his four acting nominations from the Oscars were nominated at SAG. Missing out for “American Hustle” (2013) and “American Sniper” (2014) might show that he doesn’t fill their go-to checkboxes in the way Emily Blunt or Leonardo DiCaprio tend to.
The guys of “Belfast” seem likely, but Jamie Dornan could be the more vulnerable of the two if one were to miss. Only his co-star Ciarán Hinds and critics’ awards leader Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”) feel secure.
Read the current predictions for best supporting actor at the Oscars here>>>
- Ciarán Hinds***
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Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Image Credit: Courtesy of 20th Century Studios/Everett Collection - Ariana DeBose***
“West Side Story” (20th Century Studios) - Caitríona Balfe
“Belfast” (Focus Features) - Aunjanue Ellis
“King Richard” (Warner Bros) - Rita Moreno
“West Side Story” (20th Century Studios) - Ruth Negga
“Passing” (Netflix)
Also in contention: Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”); Marlee Matlin (“CODA”); Ruth Negga (“Passing”); Ann Dowd (“Mass”); Judi Dench (“Belfast”); Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”); Meryl Streep (“Don’t Look Up”); Cate Blanchett (“Nightmare Alley”); Nina Arianda (“Being the Ricardos”); Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place Part II”); Regina King (“The Harder They Fall”)
Commentary: This is the most competitive category this awards season. There are so many women vying for just five available spots, and the SAG nominees may not clear things up for us. This category is notorious for curveballs like Nicole Kidman in “Bombshell” (2019) and eventual SAG winner Emily Blunt in “A Quiet Place” (2018). There doesn’t seem to be too many contenders that can fit those bills unless someone like Rebecca Ferguson in “Dune” bubbles up.
The prediction of Kirsten Dunst’s bravura work in “The Power of the Dog” getting overlooked mirrors last year’s SAG snub, but still eventual Oscar nominee, Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”). That’s the hail mary of the category, but I sincerely hope I’m wrong about it.
SAG voters also love to retroactively recognize actors they were unable to before their ceremony debuted (i.e., Christopher Walken in “Catch Me If You Can”). That’s why Rita Moreno, a past recipient of the SAG Lifetime Achievement Award, is likely to drop into the five for “West Side Story” alongside her co-star Ariana DeBose.
A mention of Ruth Negga’s invigorating work in Rebecca Hall’s “Passing” wouldn’t just revitalize her campaign, but it would give her a fighting chance to land her second Oscar nom (following “Loving,” which was snubbed by SAG). The performance has been lauded but criminally ignored by multiple voting groups.
Read the current predictions for best supporting actress at the Oscars here>>>
- Ariana DeBose***
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Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sony/Everett Collection - “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (Sony Pictures)***
- “No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
- “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (Marvel Studios)
- “Dune” (Warner Bros)
- “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Also in contention: “Black Widow” (Marvel Studios); “The Suicide Squad” (Warner Bros); “The Matrix: Resurrections” (Warner Bros); “Eternals” (Marvel Studios); “Jungle Cruise” (Walt Disney Pictures); “The Last Duel” (20th Century Studios); “Mortal Kombat” (Warner Bros); “The Tomorrow War” (Amazon Studios); “Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix); “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
Commentary: Let’s start by putting out the annual disclaimer: Please SAG Awards, stop giving this prize out on the red carpet.
With that out of the way, this could be a fantastic opportunity to show love to the box office juggernaut that is Jon Watts’ “Spider-Man: No Way Home.” The final act and many entertaining action sequences feel like an excellent way to reward the Sony project.
The last outing of Daniel Craig’s James Bond could also find some wiggle room into the lineup with Cary Joji Fukanaga’s “No Time to Die,” while Marvel Studios will be juggling quite a few of their contenders, including Destin Daniel Cretton’s “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.”
This category has been active since 2007, with some musicals sneaking into the bunch like “Les Misérables” (2012) and “Get On Up” (2014). With all the dancing and fire escape climbing in “West Side Story,” perhaps that film has a fighting chance. The big action spectacle of “Dune” is sure to be considered, but this race looks more competitive than it has in previous years.
Note: all potential and eligible stunt performers are to be determined by the SAG Awards.