Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: March 9, 2023
Weekly Commentary: It’s “Everything Everywhere’s” world — we just live in it.
We’ve watched all the movies and seen all the precursor ceremonies that have provided all the necessary hints and clues on which films will emerge victorious at the 95th annual Academy Awards on March 12.
A24’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is forecast to be the evening’s biggest winner, including best picture and two historic acting wins. Among them are Michelle Yeoh (the first Asian and second woman of color to win best actress) and Ke Huy Quan (the second Asian winner in supporting actor).
“It saved the movies” has been the motto echoed on the circuit for Paramount’s “Top Gun: Maverick” with Tom Cruise. While it’s closer to winning the top category than people think, we should still expect some love for it in places like editing and sound. And there’s still a chance for the movie to upset in the Academy’s top category, giving Cruise his first Academy Award.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
Malte Grunert
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
James Cameron and Jon Landau
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) ***
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
“Tár” (Focus Features)
Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand -
Best Director
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Todd Field
“Tár” (Focus Features)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert ***
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Martin McDonagh
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ruben Östlund
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
Steven Spielberg
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) -
Best Actor
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection Austin Butler ***
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
Colin Farrell
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Brendan Fraser
“The Whale” (A24)
Paul Mescal
“Aftersun” (A24)
Bill Nighy
“Living” (Sony Pictures Classics) -
Best Actress
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Cate Blanchett
“Tár” (Focus Features)
Ana De Armas
“Blonde” (Netflix)
Andrea Riseborough
“To Leslie” (Momentum Pictures)
Michelle Williams
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Michelle Yeoh ***
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) -
Best Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Brendan Gleeson
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Brian Tyree Henry
“Causeway” (A24/Apple Original Films)
Judd Hirsch
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Barry Keoghan
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ke Huy Quan ***
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) -
Best Supporting Actress
Image Credit: ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection Angela Bassett
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
Hong Chau
“The Whale” (A24)
Kerry Condon ***
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jamie Lee Curtis
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Stephanie Hsu
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) -
Best Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Martin McDonagh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) ***
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg
“Tár” (Focus Features)
Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
Ruben Östlund -
Best Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: ©Orion Pictures Corp/Courtesy Everett Collection “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell (based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque)
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
Rian Johnson (based on characters created by Rian Johnson)
“Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Kazuo Ishiguro (based on “Ikiru” by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto and Hideo Oguni)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie (based on characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.)
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) ***
Sarah Polley (based on the book by Miriam Toews) -
Best Animated Feature
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) ***
Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)
Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks Animation)
Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
“The Sea Beast” (Netflix)
Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
“Turning Red” (Pixar)
Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins -
Best Production Design
Image Credit: ©Paramount/Courtesy Everett Collection “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
Christian M. Goldbeck (production designer), Ernestine Hipper (set decorator)
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
Dylan Cole, Ben Procter (production designer), Vanessa Cole (set decorator)
“Babylon” (Paramount Pictures) ***
Florencia Martin (production designer), Anthony Carlino (set decorator)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros)
Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy (production designer), Bev Dunn (set decorator)
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Rick Carter (production designer), Karen O’Hara (set decorator) -
Best Cinematography
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix) ***
James Friend
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” (Netflix)
Darius Khondji
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
Mandy Walker
“Empire of Light” (Searchlight Pictures)
Roger Deakins
“Tár” (Focus Features)
Florian Hoffmeister -
Best Costume Design
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection “Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)
Mary Zophres
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
Ruth E. Carter
“Elvis” (Warner Bros) ***
Catherine Martin
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Shirley Kurata
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” (Focus Features)
Jenny Beaven -
Best Film Editing
Image Credit: ©Paramount/Courtesy Everett Collection “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
Jonathan Redmond, Matt Villa
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Paul Rogers
“Tár” (Focus Features)
Monika Willi
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) ***
Eddie Hamilton -
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Warner Bros “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)
Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.) ***
Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
“The Whale” (A24)
Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley -
Best Sound
Image Credit: ©Paramount/Courtesy Everett Collection “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)
Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) ***
Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor -
Best Visual Effects
Image Credit: ©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios) ***
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)
Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher -
Best Original Score
Image Credit: Everett Collection “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
Volker Bertelmann
“Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)
Justin Hurwitz
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Carter Burwell
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Son Lux
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) ***
John Williams -
Best Original Song
Image Credit: Everett Collection “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“This is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” (Variance Films) ***
Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
“Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman” (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop -
Best Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “All That Breathes” (HBO Documentary Films)
Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (Neon)
Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
“Fire of Love” (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon)
Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
“A House Made of Splinters” (Madman Entertainment)
Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
“Navalny” (CNN/Warner Bros.) ***
Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris -
Best International Feature
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany) ***
dir. Edward Berger
“Argentina, 1985” (Argentina)
dir. Santiago Mitre
“Close” (Belgium)
dir. Lukas Dhont
“EO” (Poland)
dir. Jerzy Skolimowski
“The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)
dir. Colm Bairéad -
Best Animated Short
Image Credit: Apple TV+ “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse” (Apple TV+) ***
Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
“The Flying Sailor” (The Animation Showcase)
Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
“Ice Merchants” (MTV Documentary Films)
João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
“My Year of Dicks” (The Animation Showcase)
Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It” (Griffith Film School)
Lachlan Pendragon -
Best Documentary Short
Image Credit: Netflix “The Elephant Whisperers” (Netflix) ***
Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
“Haulout” (Albireo Films)
Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
“How Do You Measure a Year?” (Jay Rosenblatt Films)
Jay Rosenblatt
“The Martha Mitchell Effect” (Netflix)
Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
“Stranger at the Gate” (The New Yorker)
Frank Chi (director), Trayvon Free, Samir Hernandez (producers) -
Best Live Action Short
Image Credit: Disney+ “An Irish Goodbye” (Floodlight Pictures) ***
Tom Berkeley and Ross White
“Ivalu” (M&M Productions)
Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le Pupille” (Disney+)
Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
“Night Ride” (Cylinder Production)
Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
“The Red Suitcase” (Cynefilms)
Cyrus Neshvad