Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Feb 2, 2023

Weekly Commentary: Now that we know Andrea Riseborough’s Oscar nomination for independent drama “To Leslie” will not be rescinded, we shift our focus back to the race overall.

This year, we have a cutthroat race for the Academy’s top award, where one of four films can presumably win the gold – Searchlight’s “The Banshees of Inisherin,” A24’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Universal’s “The Fabelmans” and Paramount’s “Top Gun: Maverick.” They all have pros and cons regarding why or why not they can win.

With 11 noms, the most of any film, “Everything Everywhere” presents an opportunity for AMPAS to show how “cool” they are, as well as the willingness to embrace a future of cinema that doesn’t look like one they’ve known. From conversations with older voters, the Daniels’ multiverse dramedy encompasses flying dildos and hotdog fingers, something that hasn’t generated a ton of excitement, but alas, it’s still a viable contender.

Seeing various statistics and surprises emerge at the ceremony in the last decade, we’ve seen three movies win best picture without a directing nom (“Argo,” “Green Book” and “CODA”), and the most recent without a single technical nom or a top award mention from BAFTA and DGA, a first in modern history. Anything is (sort of?) possible.

Coming up this week on the circuit — MUAHS final voting closes (Feb. 3), Grammy Awards (Feb. 5), ACE Eddie final voting opens (Feb. 6), Santa Barbara International Film Festival begins (Feb. 8) and final Cinema Audio Society voting kicks off (Feb. 9).

Updated winner predictions are below.

To see the ranked predictions for each category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.


About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.