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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Jan. 19, 2023

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Visual Effects

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The same visual effects team nominated for “Deepwater Horizon” is on Ron Howard’s well-respected “Thirteen Lives.”

NOTE: All credited nominees are ultimately determined by the Academy.

You can read the final Variety Awards Circuit column before nominations here. Nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Jan. 24.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

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And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankFilmVisual effects teamDistributor
1Avatar: The Way of WaterJoe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett20th Century Studios
Jake Sully lives with his newfound family formed on the planet of Pandora. Once a familiar threat returns to finish what was previously started, Jake must work with Neytiri and the army of the Na’vi race to protect their planet.
2“Top Gun: Maverick”Ryan Tudhope (visual effects supervisor), Scott R. Fisher (special effects coordinator), Seth Hill (visual effects supervisor), Bryan Litson (visual effects supervisor)Paramount Pictures
After thirty years, Maverick is still pushing the envelope as a top naval aviator, but must confront ghosts of his past when he leads TOP GUN’s elite graduates on a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those chosen to fly it.
3“Nope”Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert (visual effects supervisor), Sreejith Venugopalan (DFX supervisor), Scott R. Fisher (special effects coordinator)Universal Pictures
The residents of a lonely gulch in inland California bear witness to an uncanny and chilling discovery.
4“Thirteen Lives”Jason Billington (visual effects supervisor), Brian Cox (special effects supervisor), Bruce Bright (special effects assistant supervisor)Amazon Studios/MGM
A rescue mission is assembled in Thailand where a group of young boys and their soccer coach are trapped in a system of underground caves that are flooding.
5“The Batman”Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands (visual effects supervisors), Dominic Tuohy (special effects supervisor)Warner Bros.
When a sadistic serial killer begins murdering key political figures in Gotham, Batman is forced to investigate the city’s hidden corruption and question his family’s involvement.
Next in Line
6“Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore”Christian Manz, Benjamin Loch, Stephane Naze (visual effects supervisor), Alistair Williams (special effects supervisor)Warner Bros.
Professor Albus Dumbledore must assist Newt Scamander and his partners as Grindelwald begins to lead an army to eliminate all Muggles.
7“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang (vfx supervisors), Dan Sudick (sfx supervisor)Marvel Studios
The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa.
8“All Quiet on the Western Front”Markus Frank, Viktor Muller, Frank Petzold (vfx supervisor), Kamil Jafar (sfx supervisor) Netflix
A young German soldier’s terrifying experiences and distress on the western front during World War I.
9“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”Janek Sirrs, Theo Bialek, Erik Winquist (VFX supervisors), Chris Corbould (SFX supervisor)Marvel Studios
Doctor Strange teams up with a mysterious teenage girl from his dreams who can travel across multiverses, to battle multiple threats, including other-universe versions of himself, which threaten to wipe out millions across the multiverse. They seek help from Wanda the Scarlet Witch, Wong and others.
10“Jurassic World: Dominion”David Vickery, Alex Wuttke (visual effects supervisor), Paul Corbould (SFX supervisor), Neal Scanlan (creature FX creative supervisor)Universal Pictures
Four years after the destruction of Isla Nublar, Biosyn operatives attempt to track down Maisie Lockwood, while Dr Ellie Sattler investigates a genetically engineered swarm of giant insects.
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2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.