Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress – What Do We Make of Keke Palmer’s NYFCC Win for ‘Nope?’

Other contenders include Angela Bassett, Jessie Buckley, Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss and Stephanie Hsu

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Dec. 2, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, Jamie Lee Curtis, 2022. © A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection Allyson Riggs/Courtesy of A24

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: One of the surprises during the New York Film Critics Circle winners announcement was the naming of Keke Palmer for best supporting actress for her turn as the UFO-chasing, wise-cracking sister in Universal Pictures’ “Nope.” The sci-fi horror flick from Oscar winner Jordan Peele has been bubbling on the circuit since its July release, making stops at TIFF with a special screening and Palmer being singled out in reviews. While her performance is more in line with a lead performer, this recognition could give her campaign the boost it needs heading into voting for SAG nominations, which begin on Monday, Dec. 5.

It’s worth noting the NYFCC winners for best supporting actress haven’t faired too well when translating to Oscar nominees. While you can point to Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) and Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) as success stories, critical favorites like Kristen Stewart (“Clouds of Sils Maria”), Tiffany Haddish (“Girls Trip”) and last year’s Kathryn Hunter (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”) never really took off when the major noms were announced, including at the Oscars.

The entire category is still in a state of flux. While there are many beating the drum for Angela Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” or any women from “Women Talking” notably Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy and Judith Ivey, we simply don’t know which way the race will swing.

There are also the multiple women from “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu), “Glass Onion” (Kate Hudson and Janelle Monáe), “The Whale” (Hong Chau and Sadie Sink) and “The Woman King” (Thuso Mbedu and Lashana Lynch).

Nina Hoss is hopefully headed for an “attachment” vote to her co-star Cate Blanchett in “Tár” but make no mistake, her performance is precisely calculated and executed and is one of the best of the year.

After premiering this week, “Emancipation” received mixed reviews from the first drop of critics’ takes. However, Charmaine Bingwa (on the Variety Awards Circuit Podcast this week), demonstrates how to make the most of limited screen time.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

Find the SAG Awards predictions for film and Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories on their respective pages.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

(L to R) Nina Hoss stars as Sharin Goodnow and Cate Blanchett stars as Lydia Tár in director Todd Field’s TÁR, a Focus Features release. Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features Courtesy of Focus Features
And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankNameFilmDistributor
1Angela Bassett“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa.
2Jamie Lee Curtis“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
3Kerry Condon“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
4Jessie Buckley“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
5Nina Hoss“Tár”Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
Next in Line
6Stephanie Hsu“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
7Keke Palmer“Nope”Universal Pictures
The residents of a lonely gulch in inland California bear witness to an uncanny and chilling discovery.
8Carey Mulligan“She Said”Universal Pictures
New York Times reporters Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor break one of the most important stories in a generation – a story that helped ignite a movement and shattered decades of silence around the subject of sexual assault in Hollywood.
9Claire Foy“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.

10Janelle Monáe“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Famed Southern detective Benoit Blanc travels to Greece for his latest case.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11Kate Hudson“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story”Netflix
12Gabrielle Union“The Inspection”A24
13Hong Chau“The Whale”A24
14Charmaine Bingwa“Emancipation”Apple Original Films
15Dolly De Leon“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
16Thuso Mbedu“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
17Laura Dern“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
18Aimee Lou Wood“Living”Sony Pictures Classics
19Olivia DeJonge“Elvis”Warner Bros.
20Lashana Lynch“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
Also In Contention
21Judith Ivey“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
22Sadie Sink“The Whale”A24
23Jennifer Connelly“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
24Anne Hathaway“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
25Vanessa Kirby“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
26Whoopi Goldberg“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
27Emma Corrin“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
28Jennifer Ehle“She Said”Universal Pictures
29Jean Smart“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
30Sally Field“Spoiler Alert”Focus Features
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
Ahna O’Reilly“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Aimee Lou Wood“Living”Sony Pictures Classics
Alba Baptista“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Alejandra Flechner“Argentina, 1985”Amazon Studios
Alix West Leller“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Anamaria Marinca“You Won’t Be Alone”Focus Features
Alice Englert“You Won’t Be Alone”Focus Features
Noomi Rapace“You Won’t Be Alone”Focus Features
Amanda Bearse“Bros”Universal Pictures
Amber Grey“Master”Amazon Studios
Andrea Riseborough“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Andrea Riseborough“Matilda”Netflix
Angela Bassett“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Anne Hathaway“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
Anya Taylor-Joy“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Anya Taylor-Joy“The Northman”Focus Features
Ashely Park“Mr. Malcolm’s List”Bleecker Street
Avis Marie Barnes“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”Focus Features
Benja K. Thomas“A Love Song”Bleecker Street
Billie Piper“Catherine Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
BJÖRK
“The Northman”Focus Features
Bria Danielle Singleton“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
Candice Bergen“As They Made Us”Quiver
Carey Mulligan“She Said”Universal Pictures
CCH Pounder“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Charlotte Gainsbourg“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
Charmaine Bingwa“Emancipation”Apple Original Films
Chloë Sevigny“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Christina Jackson“Devotion”Sony Pictures
Claire Foy“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Connie Britton“Breaking”Bleecker Street
Crystal Clarke“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Dakota Johnson“Cha Cha Real Smooth”Apple Original Films
Danai Gurira“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Dolly De Leon“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
Dominique Thorne“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Doona Bae“Broker”Neon
Dot-Marie Jones“Bros”Universal Pictures
Edie Falco“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Ego Nwodim“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”Sony Pictures
Elaine Cassidy“The Wonder”Netflix
Elizabeth McGovern“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Elizabeth Olsen“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”Marvel Studios
Ellen Thomas“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Émilie Dequenne“Close”A24
Emily Mitchell“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Emma Corrin“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
Emma Thompson“Matilda”Netflix
Emma Thompson“What’s Love Got to Do With It?”No U.S. Distribution
Emmy Raver-Lampman“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Eve Lindley“Bros”Universal Pictures
Florence Kasumba“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Frances McDormand“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Gabrielle Union“Strange World”Walt Disney Pictures
Gabrielle Union“The Inspection”A24
Gemma Chan“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Gillian Anderson“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
Greta Gerwig“White Noise”Netflix
Griselda Sicillani“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”Netflix
Haley Bennett“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
Haley Lu Richardson“After Yang”A24
Hong Chau“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Hong Chau“The Whale”A24
Imelda Staunton“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Iris Berben“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
Isabella Rossellini“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”A24
Isabelle Huppert“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Jamie Lee Curtis“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
Jane Adams“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Janelle Monáe
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Janet McTeer“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Janet McTeer“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Jayme Lawson“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
Jayme Lawson“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
Jean Smart“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Jeannie Berlin“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Jennifer Connelly“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
Jennifer Ehle“She Said”Universal Pictures
Jessica Chastain“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
Jessica Hardwick“The Lost King”Warner Bros.
Jessica Harper“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Jessica Henwick“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Jessie Buckley“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Joanne Froggatt“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Jodhi May“The Silent Twins”Focus Features
Jodie Turner-Smith“After Yang”A24
Joely Richardson“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”Netflix
Jojo Regina“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Judi Dench“Allelujah”No U.S. Distribution
Judith Ivey“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Judith Ivey“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Judith Light“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Julia Butters“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Julianne Nicholson“Blonde”Netflix
Kaitlyn Dever“Ticket to Paradise”Netflix
Kate Berlant“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Kate Hallett“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Kate Hudson“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Kate Winslet“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Kathryn Hahn“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Keke Palmer*“Nope”Universal Pictures
Kerry Condon“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Kiki Layne“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Kila Lord Cassidy“The Wonder”Netflix
Kim Dickens“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Kim Dickens“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Kimberly Guerrero“Montana Story”Bleecker Street
Kristen Stewart“Crimes of the Future”Neon
Lashana Lynch“Matilda”Netflix
Lashana Lynch“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
Laura Carmichael“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Laura Dern“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
Laura Haddock“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Léa Drucker“Close”A24
Léa Seydoux“Crimes of the Future”Neon
Lesley Nicol“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Lesley Sharp“Catherine Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
Leslie Uggams“Nanny”Amazon Studios
Li Jun Li“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Lily Fisher“Blonde”Netflix
Lucy Boynton“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
Lupita Nyong’o“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Lyric Hurd“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”Sony Pictures
Mabel Cadena“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Madelyn Cline“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Maggie Smith“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Malea Emma Tjandrawidjaja“After Yang”A24
Mar Carrera“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”Netflix
Margot Robbie*“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Maria Bakalova“Bodies Bodies Bodies”A24
Mariana Treviño“A Man Called Otto”Sony Pictures
Marianne Jean-Baptiste“The Sea Beast”Netflix
Marsha Stephanie Blake“Brother”No U.S. Distribution
May Nivola“White Noise”Netflix
Meteora Fontana“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”Netflix
Michael Hyatt“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Michaela Coel“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Michelle McLeod“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Michelle Monaghan“Nanny”Amazon Studios
Michelle Williams*“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Michelle Wilson“A Love Song”Bleecker Street
Michelle Yeoh“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Nadine Marshall“The Silent Twins”Focus Features
Nathalie Baye“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Niamh Algar“The Wonder”Netflix
Nicole Beharie“Breaking”Bleecker Street
Nicole Beharie“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”Focus Features
Nicole Kidman“The Northman”Focus Features
Nicole LaLiberté“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Nikki Amuka-Bird“The Outfit”Focus Features
Nina Hoss“Tár”Focus Features
Noémie Merlant“Tár”Focus Features
Octavia Spencer“Spirited”Apple Original Films
Olivia DeJonge“Elvis”Warner Bros.
Olivia Wilde“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Olivia Wilde“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Oona Chaplin“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Patricia Clarkson“Monica”No U.S. Distribution
Patricia Clarkson“She Said”Universal Pictures
Pattrakorn Tungsupakul“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Penelope Wilton“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Phyllis Logan“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Q’Orianka Kilcher“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Queen Latifah“Hustle”Netflix
Quintessa Swindell“Black Adam”Warner Bros
Rachel Keller“A Man Called Otto”Sony Pictures
Rachel Keller“Butcher’s Crossing”Saban Films
Raffey Cassidy“White Noise”Netflix
Raquel Cassidy“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Rose Decker“Nanny”Amazon Studios
Rose Williams“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Ruth Wilson“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
Sabrina Carpenter“Emergency”Amazon Studios
Sadie Sink“The Whale”A24
Sally Field“Spoiler Alert”Focus Features
Samantha Morton“She Said”Universal Pictures
Samantha Morton“The Whale”A24
Selenis Leyva“Breaking”Bleecker Street
Shayla Brown“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Sheila Atim“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
Sheila McCarthy“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Sigourney Weaver“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Sigourney Weaver“Call Jane”Roadside Attractions
Sophie Kauer“Tár”Focus Features
Sophie McShera“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Sophie Okonedo“Raymond & Ray”Apple Original Films
Stephanie Hsu“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
Sydney Chandler“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Tamara Tunie“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
Tanya Moodie“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Taylor Swift“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Tessa Thompson“Thor: Love and Thunder”Marvel Studios
Thuso Mbedu“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
Ts Madison“Bros”Universal Pictures
Tuppence Middleton“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Vanessa Kirby“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
Vicki Berlin“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
Whoopi Goldberg“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
Wunmi Mosaku“Alice, Darling”Lionsgate
Ximena Lamadrid“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”Netflix
Zawe Ashton“Mr. Malcolm’s List”Bleecker Street
Zoë Kravitz“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Zoe Renee“Master”Amazon Studios
Zoe Saldaña
“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Zoey Deutch“The Outfit”Focus Features
Zooey Deschanel“Dreamin’ Wild”No U.S. Distribution

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.