Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor – Ke Huy Quan Is a Story Worth Honoring This Season

Other contenders include Brendan Gleeson, Barry Keoghan, Eddie Redmayne and Brian Tyree Henry

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Dec. 2, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN, Barry Keoghan, 2022. © Searchlight Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The lovefest for comeback star Ke Huy Quan continues after adding two supporting trophies to his mantle this week from the Gothams and the prestigious New York Film Critics Circle. Looking destined to be the critical darling of the season, he’ll be hard to root against as more awards are handed out, and he delivers moving speeches. Nine of the last 10 NYFCC winners for supporting actor received Oscar noms, with only Chadwick Boseman missing out for “Da 5 Bloods” (2020). However, he was still recognized posthumously by the Academy the same year for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Four of the nine NYFCC winners – Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”) and Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”) – took home the Oscar.

With “The Banshees of Inisherin” picking up steam for best picture and best actor for Colin Farrell, his co-stars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan could come along for the ride. Let’s see how far the Martin McDonagh dramedy can go on the awards circuit.

Brian Tyree Henry has been making the rounds at various Q&As and industry events. The 40-year-old Emmy nominee should already have an Oscar nomination by now (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), and he could be a packaged deal with his Oscar-winning co-star Jennifer Lawrence.

There are lots more nominations and precursors to be announced. We’ll see what shakes out next.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

Find the SAG Awards predictions for film and Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories on their respective pages.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

WOMEN TALKING, from left: Ben Whishaw, Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, 2022. ph: Michael Gibson /© Orion Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection ©Orion Pictures Corp/Courtesy Everett Collection
And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankNameFilmDistributor
1Ke Huy Quan “Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
2Brendan Gleeson“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
3Barry Keoghan“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
4Eddie Redmayne“The Good Nurse”Netflix
An infamous caregiver is implicated in the deaths of hundreds of hospital patients.
5Brian Tyree Henry“Causeway”A24/Apple Original Films
A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home.
Next in Line
6Judd Hirsch“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
7Ben Foster“Emancipation”Apple Original Films
A runaway slave forges through the swamps of Louisiana on a tortuous journey to escape plantation owners that nearly killed him.
8Ben Whishaw“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
9Mark Rylance“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
10Jeremy Strong“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11Tom Hanks“Elvis”Warner Bros.
12Brad Pitt“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
13Paul Dano“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
14Woody Harrelson“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
15Toby Jones“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
16Micheal Ward“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
17Miles Teller“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
18Andre Braugher“She Said”Universal Pictures
19Glen Powell“Devotion”Sony Pictures
20Colin Farrell“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Also In Contention
21David Lynch“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
22Anthony Hopkins“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
23Don Cheadle“White Noise”Netflix
24Paul Dano“The Batman”Warner Bros.
25Harry Styles“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
26Raúl Castillo“The Inspection”A24
27Bokeem Woodbine“The Inspection”A24
28Viggo Mortensen“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
29Ben Aldridge“Spoiler Alert”Focus Features
30Edward Norton“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story”Netflix
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
Jim Carter“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Brendan Coyle“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Hugh Dancy“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Felix Maritaud“You Won’t Be Alone”Focus Features
Carloto Cotta“You Won’t Be Alone”Focus Features
Kevin Doyle“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Michael Fox“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Harry Hadden-Paton“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Robert James-Collier“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Allen Leech“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Dominic West“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Jonathan Zaccaï“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Aaron Hilmer“All Quiet on the Western Front”Netflix
Aaron Moten“Emancipation”Apple Original Films
Adrien Brody“Blonde”Netflix
Adrien Brody“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
Albrecht Schuch“All Quiet on the Western Front”Netflix
Aldis Hodge“Black Adam”Warner Bros
Alessandro Nivola“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Alex Livinalli“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Alex Sharp“Living”Sony Pictures Classics
Allan Corduner“Tár”Focus Features
Andre Braugher“She Said”Universal Pictures
André Holland“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Andrés Almeida“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”Netflix
Andrew Scott“Catherine Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
Andy Serkis“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Anthony Edwards“Hustle”Netflix
Anthony Hopkins“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
Ashton Sanders“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
Asivak Koostachin“Montana Story”Bleecker Street
Austin Crute“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”Focus Features
Barry Keoghan“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Barry Keoghan“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Ben Aldridge“Spoiler Alert”Focus Features
Ben Foster“Emancipation”Apple Original Films
Ben Foster“Hustle”Netflix
Ben Whishaw“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Benedict Wong“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”Marvel Studios
Bill Irwin“Spoiler Alert”Focus Features
Bill Murray“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”Apple Original Films
Bobby Cannavale“Blonde”Netflix
Bokeem Woodbine“The Inspection”A24
Brad Pitt“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Brandon Perea“Nope”Universal Pictures
Brendan Gleeson“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Brett Gelman“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”Sony Pictures
Brian D’Arcy James“The Cathedral”Hulu
Brian Tyree Henry“Causeway”A24/Apple Original Films
Britain Dalton“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Chris Pine“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros.
Chris Rock“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Claes Bang“The Northman”Focus Features
Clarke Peters“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
Cliff Curtis“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Colin Farrell“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Colin Farrell“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Colin Firth“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Conphidance“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”Focus Features
Dave Bautista“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
David Dawson“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
David Denham“Emancipation”Apple Original Films
David Oyelowo“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
David Strathairn“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
David Wenham“Elvis”Warner Bros.
Derek Jacobi“Allelujah”No U.S. Distribution
Devere Rogers“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”Focus Features
Devid Striesow“All Quiet on the Western Front”Netflix
Don Cheadle“White Noise”Netflix
Don Cheadle“White Noise”Netflix
Dustin Hoffman“As They Made Us”Quiver
Dylan O’Brien“The Outfit”Focus Features
Eddie Redmayne“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Edin Hasanovic“All Quiet on the Western Front”Netflix
Edward Norton“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Eric Ladin“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Ernie Hudson“Prisoner’s Daughter”No U.S. Distribution
Ethan Hawke*“Raymond & Ray”Apple Original Films
Ethan Suplee“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Evan Williams“Blonde”Netflix
Ewan McGregor*“Raymond & Ray”Apple Original Films
Frankie Faison“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
Garret Dillahunt“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Gilbert Owuor“Montana Story”Bleecker Street
Glen Powell“Devotion”Sony Pictures
Glen Powell“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
Grant Harvey“Emancipation”Apple Original Films
Gustav de Waele“Close”A24
Gustav Lindh“The Northman”Focus Features
Guy Branum“Bros”Universal Pictures
Harris Dickinson“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
Harris Dickinson“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Harry Lloyd“The Lost King”Warner Bros.
Harry Melling“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
Harry Styles“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Igor Van Dessel“Close”A24
Iker Solano“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”Netflix
Jalyn Hall“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
James Teeradon Supapunpinyo
“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Jared Harris“The Sea Beast”Netflix
Jason Kravits“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”Sony Pictures
Jaylin Webb“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
Lambert Wilson“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Lucas Bravo“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Jason Isaacs“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Jeffrey Donovan“Breaking”Bleecker Street
Jeffrey Wright“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Jeremy Strong“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
Jim Rash“Bros”Universal Pictures
Joe Alwyn“Catherine Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
Joe Alwyn“Stars at Noon”A24
Joe Jonas“Devotion”Sony Pictures
Joel Edgerton“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
John Boyega“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
John David Washington“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
John Leguizamo“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
John Patton Ford“Emily the Criminal”Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment
John Turturro“The Batman”Warner Bros.
John Way“A Love Song”Bleecker Street
Johnny Dlynn“The Outfit”Focus Features
Jon Hamm“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
Jonathan Pryce“All the Old Knives”Amazon Studios
Jonathan Tucker“Palm Trees and Power Lines”Momentum Pictures
Juancho Hernangómez“Hustle”Netflix
Julian Glover“Tár”Focus Features
Justin H. Min“After Yang”A24
Ke Huy Quan“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
Kelvin Harrison Jr.“Elvis”Warner Bros.
Kenny Smith“Hustle”Netflix
Kevin Nash“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Laurence Fishburne“All the Old Knives”Amazon Studios
Leslie Odom Jr.“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Luke David Blumm“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Luke Forbes“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Luke Macfarlane“Bros”Universal Pictures
Malcolm McDowell“Moving On”No U.S. Distribution
Malik Yoba“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Manuel Garcia-Rulfo“A Man Called Otto”Sony Pictures
Mark Rylance“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Mark Strong“Tár”Focus Features
Martin Freeman“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Matthew Duckett“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”Netflix
Matthias Schoenaerts“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Matthias Schweighöfer“The Swimmers”Netflix
Michael Kenneth Williams“Breaking”Bleecker Street
Michael Shannon“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Michael Smiley“The Silent Twins”Focus Features
Michael Stuhlbarg“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Micheal Ward“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Mike Myers“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Miles Teller“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
Miss Lawrence“Bros”Universal Pictures
Morgan Spector“Nanny”Amazon Studios
Mortiz Klaus“All Quiet on the Western Front”Netflix
Nicholas Hoult“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Nick Kroll“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros.
Nnamdi Asomugha“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Noah Emmerich“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Noah Jupe“Dreamin’ Wild”No U.S. Distribution
Norman Briski“Argentina, 1985”Amazon Studios
Oliver Jackson-Cohen“Mr. Malcolm’s List”Bleecker Street
Paul Dano“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Paul Dano“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Paul Gleeson“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Pedro Pascal“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”Lionsgate
Peter Lanzani“Argentina, 1985”Amazon Studios
Peter Sarsgaard“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Rami Malek“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Raúl Castillo“The Inspection”A24
Reece Shearsmith“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
Reed Birney“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Richard Roxburgh“Elvis”Warner Bros.
Robbie Gene Bevins“Dog”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Robert DeNiro“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Robert Duvall“Hustle”Netflix
Robert Duvall“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
Russell Crowe“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”Apple Original Films
Sahajak Boonthanakit
“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Sam Nivola“White Noise”Netflix
Scoot McNairy“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”Sony Pictures
Scott Speedman“Crimes of the Future”Neon
Sean Patrick Thomas“Till”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Sebastian Chacon“Emergency”Amazon Studios
Seth Rogen“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Shawn Mendes“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”Sony Pictures
Simon Russell Beale“The Outfit”Focus Features
Sinqua Walls“Nanny”Amazon Studios
Stanley Tucci“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
Stephen Graham“Matilda”Netflix
Stephen Lang“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Sterling Macer Jr.“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Steven Yeun“Nope”Universal Pictures
Taika Waititi“Thor: Love and Thunder”Marvel Studios
Taylor John Smith“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Tenoch Huerta Mejia“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Theo James“Mr. Malcolm’s List”Bleecker Street
Theo Rossi“Emily the Criminal”Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment
Thibault de Montlembert“All Quiet on the Western Front”Netflix
Thomas Sadoski“Devotion”Sony Pictures
Timothy Olyphant“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Tobey Maguire“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Toby Jones“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Toby Jones“The Wonder”Netflix
Tom Bateman“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Tom Burke“Living”Sony Pictures Classics
Tom Burke“The Wonder”Netflix
Tom Hanks“Elvis”Warner Bros.
Tom Pelphrey“She Said”Universal Pictures
Treva Etienne“The Silent Twins”Focus Features
Trevante Rhodes“Bruiser”Onyx Collective
Tui Thiraphat Sajakul
“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Viggo Mortensen“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Ving Rhames“Wendell and Wild”Netflix
Weir Sukollawat Kanaros“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Willem Dafoe“The Northman”Focus Features
Winslow Fegley“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”Sony Pictures
Winston Duke“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Woody Harrelson“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
Xavier Samuel“Blonde”Netflix
Zen McGrath“The Son”Sony

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.