Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 2, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The lovefest for comeback star Ke Huy Quan continues after adding two supporting trophies to his mantle this week from the Gothams and the prestigious New York Film Critics Circle. Looking destined to be the critical darling of the season, he’ll be hard to root against as more awards are handed out, and he delivers moving speeches. Nine of the last 10 NYFCC winners for supporting actor received Oscar noms, with only Chadwick Boseman missing out for “Da 5 Bloods” (2020). However, he was still recognized posthumously by the Academy the same year for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Four of the nine NYFCC winners – Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”) and Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”) – took home the Oscar.
With “The Banshees of Inisherin” picking up steam for best picture and best actor for Colin Farrell, his co-stars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan could come along for the ride. Let’s see how far the Martin McDonagh dramedy can go on the awards circuit.
Brian Tyree Henry has been making the rounds at various Q&As and industry events. The 40-year-old Emmy nominee should already have an Oscar nomination by now (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), and he could be a packaged deal with his Oscar-winning co-star Jennifer Lawrence.
There are lots more nominations and precursors to be announced. We’ll see what shakes out next.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.