Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Sept. 22, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, from left: Stephanie Hsu, Ke Huy Quan, Michelle Yeoh, James Hong, 2022. ph: Allyson Riggs /© A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Anointed a few years ago for best supporting actor for his work in “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood,” could Brad Pitt return to the race for “Babylon?” It’s said that Diego Calva is the lead of the movie and Pitt’s role is rumored to be strong. It’s one of the last films on the calendar that we’ve yet to see.

Many respected actors, with decades in Hollywood, will be seeking recognition. Judd Hirsch, if nominated for Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans,” would be the second oldest nominee in any acting category’s history behind Christopher Plummer, who was 88 when recognized for “All the Money in the World” (2017). If he managed to win, he would be the oldest winner of any category, beating out Anthony Hopkins’ best actor win for “The Father” (2020), when he was 83. He’s not the only industry vet angling for attention with Brendan Gleeson’s work in “The Banshees of Inisherin” getting acclaim, while Ke Huy Quan will hopefully continue to be a packaged deal with his co-star Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Toby Jones’ monologue about the working of a camera in Sam Mendes’ “Empire of Light” will surely get some interest from members while Ben Whishaw will benefit from being the only male actor in an impeccable female ensemble in Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking.”

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.

To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankNameFilmDistributor
1Brendan Gleeson*“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
2Judd Hirsch“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
3Ke Huy Quan “Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
4Ben Whishaw“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
5Woody Harrelson“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
Next in Line
6Toby Jones“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
7Jeremy Strong“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream.
8Brad Pitt“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Set in the ’30s, it follows three friends who witness a murder, become suspects themselves, and uncover one of the most outrageous plots in American history.
9Barry Keoghan“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
10Paul Dano*“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11Eddie Redmayne“The Good Nurse”Netflix
12Micheal Ward“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
13Brian Tyree Henry“Causeway”A24/Apple Original Films
14Don Cheadle“White Noise”Netflix
15David Lynch“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
16Paul Dano“The Batman”Warner Bros.
17Viggo Mortensen“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
18Edward Norton“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story”Netflix
19Anthony Hopkins“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
20Tom Hanks“Elvis”Warner Bros.
Also In Contention
21Sean Patrick Thomas“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
22Seth Rogen“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
23Pedro Pascal“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”Lionsgate
24Harry Styles*“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
25John David Washington“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
26Manuel Garcia-Rulfo“A Man Called Otto”Sony Pictures
27Ben Aldridge“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”Focus Features
28Rupert Everett“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
29Anthony Hopkins“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
30Glen Powell“Devotion”Sony Pictures
Other Awards Possibilities
31Zen McGrath“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
32Andre Braugher“She Said”Universal Pictures
33Andrés Almeida“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”Netflix
34Jalyn Hall“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
35Colin Firth“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
36Miles Teller“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
37Stephen Lang“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
38John Boyega“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
39Chris Pine“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros.
40Tobey Maguire“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
Adrien Brody“Blonde”Netflix
Adrien Brody“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
Aldis Hodge“Black Adam”Warner Bros
Alessandro Nivola“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Alessandro Nivola“White Noise”Netflix
Alex Sharp“Living”Sony Pictures Classics
Matthias Schweighöfer“The Swimmers”Netflix
Ali Suliman“The Swimmers”Netflix
André Benjamin“White Noise”Netflix
Andre Braugher“She Said”Universal Pictures
André Holland“Shirley”Netflix
Andrés Almeida“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”Netflix
Andrew Scott“Catherine, Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
Anthony Hopkins“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
Ashton Sanders“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
Barry Keoghan“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Ben Aldridge“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”Focus Features
Ben Foster“Emancipation”Apple Original Films
Ben Whishaw“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Benedict Wong“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”Marvel Studios
Bill Irwin“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”Focus Features
Bill Murray“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”Apple Original Films
Bobby Cannavale“Blonde”Netflix
Brad Pitt*“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Brandon Perea“Nope”Universal Pictures
Brendan Gleeson*“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Brian Tyree Henry“Causeway”A24/Apple Original Films
Chris Pine“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros.
Chris Rock“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Ciarán Hinds“The Wonder”Netflix
Claes Bang“The Northman”Focus Features
Clarke Peters“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
Cliff Curtis“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Colin Farrell“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Colin Farrell“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Colin Farrell*“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Colin Firth*“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Daniel Bruhl“All Quiet on the Western Front”Netflix
Dave Bautista“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
David Dawson“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
David F. Sandberg“Shazam! Fury of the Gods”Warner Bros.
David Oyelowo“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
David Wenham“Elvis”Warner Bros.
Derek Jacobi“Allelujah”No U.S. Distribution
Diego Calva*“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Djimon Hounsou“Shazam! Fury of the Gods”Warner Bros
Don Cheadle“White Noise”Netflix
Dustin Hoffman“As They Made Us”Quiver
Edward Norton“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Eric Bana“Blueback”No U.S. Distribution
Ernie Hudson“Prisoner’s Daughter”No U.S. Distribution
Ethan Hawke“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Ethan Hawke*“Raymond & Ray”Apple Original Films
Ewan McGregor*“Raymond & Ray”Apple Original Films
Frankie Faison“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
Harry Lloyd“The Lost King”Warner Bros.
Harry Melling“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
Harry Styles“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Jalyn Hall*“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
Jaylin Webb“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
Jeffrey Wright“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Jeremy Strong“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
Joe Alwyn“Catherine, Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
Joel Edgerton“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
John Boyega“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
John David Washington“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
John Glover“TÁR”Focus Features
Glen Powell“Devotion”Sony Pictures
Glen Powell“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
Jon Hamm“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
John Leguizamo“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
John Patton Ford“Emily the Criminal”Roadside Attractions
Juancho Hernangómez“Hustle”Netflix
Ke Huy Quan“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
Kelvin Harrison Jr.“Elvis”Warner Bros.
Lance Reddick“Shirley”Netflix
Leslie Odom Jr.“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Lucas Hedges“Shirley”Netflix
Luke Macfarlane“Bros”Universal Pictures
Malcolm McDowell“Moving On”No U.S. Distribution
Manuel Garcia-Rulfo“A Man Called Otto”Sony Pictures
Mark Rylance“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Mark Rylance“The Way of the Wind”No U.S. Distribution
Mark Strong“TÁR”Focus Features
Martin Freeman“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Matthias Schoenaerts“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Michael Shannon“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Michael Stuhlbarg“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Micheal Ward“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Mike Myers“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Miles Teller“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
Nicholas Hoult“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Noah Jupe“Dreamin’ Wild”No U.S. Distribution
Oh Kwang-rok“Return to Seoul”Sony Pictures Classics
Paul Dano“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Paul Dano“The Batman”Warner Bros.
Pedro Pascal“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”Lionsgate
Peter Lanzani“Argentina, 1985”Amazon Studios
Ralph Fiennes*“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Rami Malek“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Richard Roxburgh“Elvis”Warner Bros.
Robert DeNiro“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Robert Duvall“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
Russell Crowe“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”Apple Original Films
Scott Speedman“Crimes of the Future”Neon
Sean Patrick Thomas“Till”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Seth Rogen“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Stanley Tucci“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
Stephen Lang“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
Steven Yeun“Nope”Universal Pictures
Taika Waititi“Thor: Love and Thunder”Marvel Studios
Terrence Howard“Shirley”Netflix
Timothy Olyphant“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Tobey Maguire“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Toby Jones“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Tom Burke“Living”Sony Pictures Classics
Tom Hanks“Elvis”Warner Bros.
Tom Pelphrey“She Said”Universal Pictures
Viggo Mortensen“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
Winston Duke*“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Woody Harrelson“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
Zen McGrath*“The Son”Sony

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: Troy Kotsur, "CODA" (Apple Original Films)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.