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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

To see all the latest FILM predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE OSCARS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE OSCARS HUB (coming soon)
To see old predictions and commentary, click the OSCARS PREDICTIONS ARCHIVES
Link to TV awards is atTHE EMMYS HUB

UPDATED: July 28, 2022

2023 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:

Could The Daniels’ whimsical “Everything Everywhere All at Once” go the way of Charlie Kaufman of “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” or Spike Jonze of “Her?”

Read moreVariety’s Awards Circuit Oscars Predictions Hub

More to come.

Read moreVariety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub

2022 category winner: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Branagh


ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank Film Writer(s) Distributor
1 “The Fabelmans” Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
2 “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
3 “Triangle of Sadness” Ruben Östlund Neon
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
4 “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro González Iñárritu Netflix
The film explores the political and social modernity of Mexico.
5 “TÁR” Todd Field Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
Next in Line
6 “Till” Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly Orion/United Artists Releasing
The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son.
7 “Empire of Light” Sam Mendes Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
8 “Babylon” Damien Chazelle Paramount Pictures
Set in Hollywood during the transition from silent films to talkies, focusing on a mixture of historical & fictional characters.
9 “The Inspection” Elegance Bratton A24
Based on the life of filmmaker and Marine Corps veteran Elegance Bratton.
10 “Elvis” Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce Warner Bros.
Baz Luhrmann’s biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11 “Bros” Billy Eichner, Nicholas Stoller Universal Pictures
12 “The Woman King” Maria Bello, Dana Stevens TriStar Pictures
13 “Don’t Worry Darling” Katie Silberman, Carey Van Dyke, Shane Van Dyke Warner Bros
14 “Decision to Leave” Park Chan-wook, Seo-kyeong Jeong Mubi
15 “Amsterdam” David O. Russell 20th Century Studios
16 “A Jazzman’s Blues” Tyler Perry Netflix
17 “Cha Cha Real Smooth” Cooper Raiff Apple Original Films
18 “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Pete Jones Apple Original Films
19 “Argentina, 1985” Mariano Llinás, Santiago Mitre Amazon Studios
20 “Armageddon Time” James Gray Focus Features
Also In Contention
21 “Holy Spider” Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran Bahrami Utopia
22 “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” Anthony McCarten Sony Pictures
23 “Master Gardener” Paul Schrader No U.S. Distribution
24 “The Menu” Seth Reiss, Will Tracy Searchlight Pictures
25 “The Lost King” Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope Warner Bros.
26 “Wendell & Wild” Clay McLeod Chapman, Jordan Peele, Henry Selick Netflix
27 “Golda” Nicholas Martin Bleecker Street
28 “Aftersun” Charlotte Wells A24
29 “Broker” Hirokazu Koreeda Neon
30 “Chevalier” Stefani Robinson Searchlight Pictures
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
“A Jazzman’s Blues” Tyler Perry Netflix
“About My Father” Austen Earl, Sebastian Maniscalco Lionsgate
“Aftersun” Charlotte Wells A24
“Alice, Darling” Alanna Francis Lionsgate
“Am I OK?” Lauren Pomerantz HBO Max
“Amsterdam” David O. Russell 20th Century Studios
“Argentina, 1985” Mariano Llinás, Santiago Mitre Amazon Studios
“Armageddon Time” James Gray Focus Features
“As They Made Us” Mayim Bialik Quiver
“Athena” Elias Belkeddar, Romain Gavras, Ladj Ly Netflix
“Babylon” Damien Chazelle Paramount Pictures
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro González Iñárritu Netflix
“Beyond the Wall” Vahid Jalilvand No U.S. Distribution
“Blueback” Robert Connolly No U.S. Distribution
“Bodies Bodies Bodies” Sarah DeLappe, Kristen Roupenian A24
“Broker” Hirokazu Koreeda Neon
“Bros” Billy Eichner, Nicholas Stoller Universal Pictures
“Call Jane” Hayley Schore, Roshan Sethi Roadside Attractions
“Causeway” Luke Goebel, Ottessa Moshfegh A24/Apple Original Films
“Cha Cha Real Smooth” Cooper Raiff Apple Original Films
“Chevalier” Stefani Robinson Searchlight Pictures
“Chevalier” Stefani Robinson Searchlight Pictures
“Close” Lukas Dhont, Angelo Tijssens A24
“Corsage” Marie Kreutzer IFC Films
“Crimes of the Future” David Cronenberg Neon
“Decision to Leave” Jeong Seo-kyeong, Park Chan-wook Mubi
“Don’t Worry Darling” Katie Silberman, Carey Van Dyke, Shane Van Dyke Warner Bros
“Easter Sunday” “Easter Sunday” Universal Pictures
“Elvis” Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce Warner Bros.
“Emily the Criminal” John Patton Ford Roadside Attractions
“Empire of Light” Sam Mendes Searchlight Pictures
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert A24
“God’s Country” Julian Higgins, Shaye Ogbonna IFC Films
“Golda” Nicholas Martin Bleecker Street
“Holy Spider” Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran Bahrami Utopia
“Hustle” Taylor Materne, Will Fetters Netflix
“I Love My Dad” James Morosini Magnolia Pictures
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody” Anthony McCarten Sony Pictures
“Il Signore Delle Formiche” To be added No U.S. Distribution
“Master Gardener” Paul Schrader No U.S. Distribution
“Montana Story” Scott McGehee, David Siegel, Mike Spreter Bleecker Street
“Moving On” Paul Weitz No U.S. Distribution
“Nitram” To be added IFC Films
“Nope” Jordan Peele Universal Pictures
“Prisoner’s Daughter” Mark Bacci No U.S. Distribution
“R.M.N.” To be added IFC Films
“Raymond & Ray” To be added Apple Original Films
“RRR” To be added Raftar Creations
“TÁR” Todd Field Focus Features
“The Blue Caftan” To be added No U.S. Distribution
“The Fabelmans” Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg Universal Pictures
“The Greatest Beer Run Ever” Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Pete Jones Apple Original Films
“The Inspection” Elegance Bratton A24
“The Lost King” Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope Warner Bros.
“The Menu” Seth Reiss, Will Tracy Searchlight Pictures
“The Northman” Robert Eggers Focus Features
“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” Tom Gormican, Kevin Etten Lionsgate
“The Woman King” Maria Bello, Dana Stevens TriStar Pictures
“The Worst Ones” To be added No U.S. Distribution
“Ticket to Paradise” Ol Prker, Daniel Pipski Universal Pictures
“Till” Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly Orion/United Artists Releasing
“Tori and Lokita” The Dardenne Brothers Janus Films
“Triangle of Sadness” Ruben Östlund Neon
“Wendell & Wild” Clay McLeod Chapman, Jordan Peele, Henry Selick Netflix
“What’s Love Got to Do With It?” Jemima Khan No U.S. Distribution
“When You Finish Saving the World” To be added A24
“X” To be added A24

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The 95th Oscars ceremony at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC