Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay – Charlotte Wells’ ‘Aftersun’ Could be the Little Movie That Could

Other contenders include 'The Banshees of Inisherin,' 'The Fabelmans,' 'Tár' and 'Triangle of Sadness'

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Dec. 2, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

TRIANGLE OF SADNESS, Harris Dickinson (center), 2022. © Neon / Courtesy Everett Collection Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: (to be updated)

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

Find the SAG Awards predictions for film and Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories on their respective pages.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.


The Fabelmans Merie Weismiller Wallace/Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment
And The Predicted Nominees Are:
1The Banshees of InisherinMartin McDonaghSearchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
2“Tár”Todd FieldFocus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
3“Everything Everywhere All at Once”Daniel Kwan, Daniel ScheinertA24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
4“The Fabelmans”Tony Kushner, Steven SpielbergUniversal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
5“Aftersun”Charlotte WellsA24
Sophie reflects on the shared joy and private melancholy of a holiday she took with her father twenty years earlier. Memories real and imagined fill the gaps between as she tries to reconcile the father she knew with the man she didn’t.
Next in Line
6“Triangle of Sadness”Ruben ÖstlundNeon
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
7“Elvis”Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, Jeremy DonerWarner Bros.
Biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.
8“The Woman King”Maria Bello, Dana StevensTriStar Pictures
A historical epic inspired by true events that took place in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.
9“Emancipation”Bill CollageApple Original Films
A runaway slave forges through the swamps of Louisiana on a tortuous journey to escape plantation owners that nearly killed him.
10“The Inspection”Elegance BrattonA24
A young, gay Black man, rejected by his mother and with few options for his future, decides to join the Marines, doing whatever it takes to succeed in a system that would cast him aside.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11“Till”Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael ReillyOrion/United Artists Releasing
12“Babylon”Damien ChazelleParamount Pictures
13“Empire of Light”Sam MendesSearchlight Pictures
14“Close”Lukas Dhont, Angelo TijssensA24
15“Armageddon Time”James GrayFocus Features
16“RRR”S.S. Rajamouli, V. Vijayendra PrasadVariance Films
17“Nope”Jordan PeeleUniversal Pictures
18“The Menu”Seth Reiss, Will TracySearchlight Pictures
19“Cha Cha Real Smooth”Cooper RaiffApple Original Films
20“Nanny”Nikyatu JusuAmazon Studios
Also In Contention
21“Decision to Leave”Park Chan-wook, Seo-kyeong JeongMubi
22“Holy Spider”Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran BahramiUtopia
23“Turning Red”Domee Shi, Julia Cho, Sarah StreicherPixar
24“Call Jane”Hayley Schore, Roshan SethiRoadside Attractions
25“Thirteen Lives”William Nicholson, Don MacPhersonAmazon Studios/MGM
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
“A Jazzman’s Blues”Tyler PerryNetflix
“A Love Song”Max Walker-SilvermanBleecker Street
“Aftersun”Charlotte WellsA24
“Palm Trees and Power Lines”Jamie Dack, Audrey FindlayMomentum Pictures
“You Won’t Be Alone”Goran StolevskiFocus Features
“Alice, Darling”Alanna FrancisLionsgate
“Am I OK?”Lauren PomerantzHBO Max
“Amsterdam”David O. Russell20th Century Studios
“Argentina, 1985”Mariano Llinás, Santiago MitreAmazon Studios
“Armageddon Time”James GrayFocus Features
“As They Made Us”Mayim BialikQuiver
“Athena”Elias Belkeddar, Romain Gavras, Ladj LyNetflix
“Babylon”Damien ChazelleParamount Pictures
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro González IñárrituNetflix
“Bodies Bodies Bodies”Sarah DeLappe, Kristen RoupenianA24
“Broker”Hirokazu Kore-edaNeon
“Bros”Billy Eichner, Nicholas StollerUniversal Pictures
“Call Jane”Hayley Schore, Roshan SethiRoadside Attractions
“Causeway”Luke Goebel, Ottessa MoshfeghA24/Apple Original Films
“Cha Cha Real Smooth”Cooper RaiffApple Original Films
“Close”Lukas Dhont, Angelo TijssensA24
“Corsage”Marie KreutzerIFC Films
“Crimes of the Future”David CronenbergNeon
“Decision to Leave”Jeong Seo-kyeong, Park Chan-wookMubi
“Dog”Reid Carolin, Brett RodriguezMGM/United Artists Releasing
“Don’t Worry Darling”Katie Silberman, Carey Van Dyke, Shane Van DykeWarner Bros
“Elvis”Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, Jeremy DonerWarner Bros.
“Emancipation”William D. CollageApple Original Films
“Emily the Criminal”John Patton FordRoadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment
“Empire of Light”Sam MendesSearchlight Pictures
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”Daniel Kwan, Daniel ScheinertA24
“God’s Country”Julian Higgins, Shaye OgbonnaIFC Films
“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”Katy BrandSearchlight Pictures
“Good Night Oppy”Ryan White, Helen KearnsAmazon Studios
“Holy Spider”Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran BahramiUtopia
“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”Adamma EboFocus Features
“The Outfit”Graham Moore, Johnathan McClainFocus Features
“Hustle”Taylor Materne, Will FettersNetflix
“I Love My Dad”James MorosiniMagnolia Pictures
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Anthony McCartenSony Pictures
“Master”Mariama DialloAmazon Studios
“Montana Story”Scott McGehee, David Siegel, Mike SpreterBleecker Street
“Nanny”Nikyatu JusuAmazon Studios
“Nitram”To be addedIFC Films
“Nope”Jordan PeeleUniversal Pictures
“One Fine Morning”Mia Hansen-LøveSony Pictures Classics
“Piggy”Carlota PeredaMagnolia Pictures
“Raymond & Ray”To be addedApple Original Films
“Resurrection”Andrew SemansIFC Films
“RRR”Vijayendra Prasad, S.S. RajamouliVariance Films
“Saint Omer”Alice Diop, Amrita Davis, Zoé Galeron, Marie N’DiayeNeon/Super
“See How They Run”Mark ChappellA24
“Strange World”Qui NguyenWalt Disney Pictures
“Tár”Todd FieldFocus Features
“The Fabelmans”Tony Kushner, Steven SpielbergUniversal Pictures
“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Pete JonesApple Original Films
“The Inspection”Elegance BrattonA24
“The Lost King”Steve Coogan, Jeff PopeWarner Bros.
“The Menu”Seth Reiss, Will TracySearchlight Pictures
“The Northman”Robert Eggers, SjónFocus Features
“The Sea Beast”Chris Williams, Neil BenjaminNetflix
“The Swimmers”Sally El Hosaini, Jack ThorneNetflix
“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”Tom Gormican, Kevin EttenLionsgate
“The Woman King”Maria Bello, Dana StevensTriStar Pictures
“Thirteen Lives”William Nicholson, Don MacPhersonAmazon Studios/MGM
“Ticket to Paradise”Ol Prker, Daniel PipskiUniversal Pictures
“Till”Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael ReillyOrion/United Artists Releasing
“Tori and Lokita”The Dardenne BrothersJanus Films
“Triangle of Sadness”Ruben ÖstlundNeon
“Turning Red”Domee Shi, Julia Cho, Sarah StreicherPixar
“Vengeance”B.J. NovakFocus Features
“X”Ti WestA24

2023 Academy Awards Predictions


The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Lonergan

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.