Final Oscars Predictions: Live Action Short – ‘An Irish Goodbye’ is the Frontrunner, While Alfonso Cuarón Could Make History

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Jan. 19, 2023

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Live Action Short

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The Oscars shortlist provided all non-U.S. produced titles and only one non-English language, “An Irish Goodbye,” which seems safe. Disney’s “Le Pupille” from writer and director Alice Rohrwacher, and produced by four-time winner Alfonso Cuarón has made stops at various film festivals and should land soundly.

A nom for Cuarón would tie the record just broken by Kenneth Branagh last year. As one of the producers for the Disney short “Le Pupille,” he could receive a nom in the best live action short category. The mention would mark the seventh Oscar category in which the filmmaker’s been recognized. He would be the second person ever to achieve this following Branagh last year with “Belfast,” in addition to being the first Latino.

“The Red Suitcase,” which tells the story of a 16-year Iranian girl frightened to go through the arrival gate at Luxembourg Airport, is popular with branch members. Always guesswork in this arena, but I suspect we round the category out with the Brazilian film “Sideral” and Beirut’s critically acclaimed “Warsha.”

You can read the final Variety Awards Circuit column before nominations here. Nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Jan. 24.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank	Name	Director(s), Producer(s)	Distributor(s)
1	“An Irish Goodbye”	Tom Berkeley, Ross White (directors, producers), Pearce Cullen, Sean A. Murray (producers)	Floodlight Pictures
	In rural Northern Ireland, a pair of estranged brothers reunite following their mother’s untimely death.
2	“The Red Suitcase”	Cyrus Neshvad (director, producer)	Cynefilms
	Luxembourg Airport. Late in the evening. A veiled 16-year-old Iranian girl is frightened to take her red suitcase on the automatic carpet. She keeps pushing back the moment to go through the arrival gate and seems more and more terrified.
3	“Warsha”	Dania Bdeir (director, producer), Coralie Dias (producer)	The Criterion Channel
	Away from everyone’s eyes, a Beirut crane operator is able to live out his secret passion and find freedom.
4	“Le Pupille”	Alice Rohrwacher (director), Carlo Cresto-Dina, Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodriguez (producers)	Disney+
	Follow the rebellious girls of a Catholic boarding school before Christmas, a time of war and scarcity.
5	“Sideral”	Carlos Segundo (director, producer), Damien Megherbi, Justin Pecherty, Mariana Hardi, Pedro Fiuza (producers)	Les Valseurs
	In Natal, on the Brazilian coast, the country is preparing to launch its first manned space rocket into space. A couple lives with children near the space center, she is a cleaner and he is a mechanic, but she dreams of other horizons.
Next in Line
6	“Nakam”	Andreas Kessler	Filmakademie Baden-Württemberg
	Twelve year old violin player Mitka is supposed to execute an attack on several SS officers in the name of a Ukrainian partisan movement. But his attempt will also put his only friend in life danger.
7	“Ivalu”	Anders Walter	M&M Productions
	Ivalu is gone. Her little sister is desperate to find her. Her father does not care. The vast Greenlandic nature holds secrets. The search for Ivalu is on.
8	“The Right Words”	Adrian Moyse Dullin	Punchline Cinéma
	When naive and romantic Mahdi is peer-pressured into confessing his love to Jada, a girl who doesn’t know he exists, his declaration becomes a public spectacle.
9	“Almost Home”	Nils Keller	Le Hof Media
	When they learn of an outbreak of a dangerous virus shortly before their long-awaited return to Earth, a teenager and his mother struggle to decide whether to land or return to space aboard their confined spaceship.
10	“All in Favor”	Santiago Requejo	2:59 Films
	What begins as an ordinary meeting of neighbors to vote on the change of elevator, ends up becoming an unexpected debate on the limits of coexistence.
Also In Contention
—	“The Lone Wolf”	Filipe Melo	Força de Produção
—	“Night Ride”	Eirik Tveiten	Cylinder Production
—	“Plastic Killer”	Jose Pozo	Arlong Productions
—	“The Treatment”	Álvaro Carmona	Line Up Shorts
—	“Tula”	Beatriz Silva	Agencia Audiovisual Freak

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: “The Long Goodbye” (WePresent) – Aniel Karia, Riz Ahmed

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