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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

To see all the latest FILM predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE OSCARS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE OSCARS HUB (coming soon)
To see old predictions and commentary, click the OSCARS PREDICTIONS ARCHIVES
Link to TV awards is atTHE EMMYS HUB

UPDATED: July 28, 2022

2023 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST DIRECTOR

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:

Todd Field is making his return to the director’s chair 16 years after “Little Children” (2006), with Cate Blanchett in the leading role. We’re excited.

Read moreVariety’s Awards Circuit Oscars Predictions Hub

More to come.

Read moreVariety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub

2022 category winner: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)


ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank Name Film Distributor
1 Steven Spielberg “The Fabelmans” Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
2 Alejandro González Iñárritu “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix
The film explores the political and social modernity of Mexico.
3 Todd Field “TÁR” Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
4 Sarah Polley “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
9 Ruben Östlund “Triangle of Sadness” Neon
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
Next in Line
6 Florian Zeller “The Son” Sony Pictures Classics
Peter as his busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into disarray when his ex-wife Kate turns up with their teenage son, Nicholas.
7 Sam Mendes “Empire of Light” Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
8 Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert “Everything Everywhere All at Once” A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
9 Park Chan-wook “Decision to Leave” Mubi
A detective investigating a man’s death in the mountains meets the dead man’s mysterious wife in the course of his dogged sleuthing.
10 Chinonye Chukwu “Till” Orion/United Artists Releasing
The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11 Noah Baumbach “White Noise” Netflix
12 Martin McDonagh “The Banshees of Inisherin” Searchlight Pictures
13 Baz Luhrmann “Elvis” Warner Bros.
14 Joseph Kosinski “Top Gun: Maverick” Paramount Pictures
15 Damien Chazelle “Babylon” Paramount Pictures
16 Gina Prince-Bythewood “The Woman King” Sony Pictures
17 Oliver Hermanus “Living” Sony Pictures Classics
18 Maria Schrader “She Said” Universal Pictures
19 Ryan Coogler “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
24 Olivia Wilde “Don’t Worry Darling” Warner Bros
Also In Contention
21 Darren Aronofsky “The Whale” A24
22 Elegance Bratton “The Inspection” A24
23 Scott Cooper “The Pale Blue Eye” Netflix
24 Rian Johnson “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix
25 David O. Russell “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studios
26 Sebastián Lelio “The Wonder” Netflix
27 James Cameron “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios
28 Mark Mylod “The Menu” Searchlight Pictures
29 Michael Showalter “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” Focus Features
30 Marc Forster “A Man Called Otto” Sony Pictures
Other Awards Possibilities
31 Tyler Perry “A Jazzman’s Blues” Netflix
32 George Miller “Three Thousand Years of Longing” MGM/United Artists Releasing
33 Santiago Mitre “Argentina, 1985” Amazon Studios
34 Ali Abbasi “Holy Spider” Utopia
35 James Gray “Armageddon Time” Focus Features
36 Peter Farrelly “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” Apple Original Films
37 Guy Nattiv “Golda” Bleecker Street
38 Nicholas Stoller “Bros” Universal Pictures
39 Audrey Diwan “Happening” IFC Films
40 Lila Neugebauer “Causeway” A24/Apple Original Films
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
Agnieszka Smoczynska “The Silent Twins” Focus Features
Alejandro González Iñárritu “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix
Alex Garland “Men” A24
Alex Lockwood “The End of Medicine” Gravitas Ventures
Ali Abbasi “Holy Spider” Utopia
Alice Diop “Saint Omer” No U.S. Distribution
Alice Winocour “Paris Memories” Pathé
Amy Redford “Roost” No U.S. Distribution
Andrea Pallaoro “Monica” No U.S. Distribution
Andrew Dominik “Blonde” Netflix
Angus MacLane “Lightyear” Pixar
Anthony Fabian “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” Focus Features
Anthony Russo, Joe Russo “The Gray Man” Netflix
Audrey Diwan “Happening” IFC Films
B.J. Novak “Vengeance” Focus Features
Baltasar Kormákur “Beast” Universal Pictures
Baz Luhrmann “Elvis” Warner Bros.
Benedetta Argentieri “The Matchmaker” No U.S. Distribution
Benjamin Millepied “Carmen” Sony Pictures Classics
Bill Pohlad “Dreamin’ Wild” No U.S. Distribution
Biyi Bandele “The King’s Horseman” No U.S. Distribution
Brandon Cronenberg “Infinity Pool” Neon
Carey Williams “Emergency” Amazon Studios
Carrie Cracknell “Persuasion” Netflix
Catherine Hardwicke “Prisoner’s Daughter” No U.S. Distribution
Cesc Gay “Stories Not to Be Told” No U.S. Distribution
Charlotte Wells “Aftersun” A24
Chinonye Chukwu “Till” Orion/United Artists Releasing
Chris Williams “The Sea Beast” Netflix
Christopher Sharp, Moses Bwayo “Bobi Wine Ghetto President” No U.S. Distribution
Christopher Winterbauer “Wyrm” Vertical Entertainment
Claire Denis “Both Sides of the Blade” IFC Films
Clement Virgo “Brother” No U.S. Distribution
Cooper Raiff “Cha Cha Real Smooth” Apple Original Films
Craig Roberts “The Phantom of the Open” Sony Pictures Classics
Cristian Mungiu “R.M.N.” IFC Films
Damien Chazelle “Babylon” Paramount Pictures
Daniel Adams “The Walk” Vertical Entertainment
Daniel Geller, Dayna Goldfine “Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song” Sony Pictures Classics
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert “Everything Everywhere All at Once” A24
Darren Aronofsky “The Whale” A24
David Cronenberg “Crimes of the Future” Neon
David F. Sandberg “Shazam! Fury of the Gods” Warner Bros.
David Leitch “Bullet Train” Sony Pictures
David O. Russell “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studios
Davy Chou “Return to Seoul” Sony Pictures Classics
Dean Fleischer-Camp “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” A24
Diego Lerman “El Suplente” No U.S. Distribution
Domee Shi “Turning Red” Pixar
Don Hall “Strange World” Walt Disney Pictures
Edward Berger “All Quiet on the Western Front” Netflix
Elegance Bratton “The Inspection” A24
Emanuele Crialese “L’Immensità” Pathé
Emelie Mahdavian “Bitterbrush” Magnolia Pictures
Emma Holly Jones “Mr. Malcolm’s List” Bleecker Street
Enrico Ghezzi, Alessandro Gagliardo “Gli Ultimi Giorni Dell’Umanità” No U.S. Distribution
Evgeny Afineevsky “Freedom on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” No U.S. Distribution
Felix van Groeningen, Charlotte Vandermeersch “The Eight Mountains” M2 Pictures
Florian Zeller “The Son” Sony Pictures Classics
Francesca Archibugi “The Hummingbird” No U.S. Distribution
Francesco Carrozzini “The Hanging Sun” No U.S. Distribution
Frederick Wiseman “A Couple” No U.S. Distribution
Gabe Polsky “Butcher’s Crossing” Saban Films
George Miller “Three Thousand Years of Longing” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Gianfranco Rosi “In Viaggio” No U.S. Distribution
Gianni Amelio “Il Signore Delle Formiche” No U.S. Distribution
Gina Gammell, Riley Keough “War Pony” Picturehouse Entertainment
Gina Prince-Bythewood “The Woman King” TriStar Pictures
Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson Guillermo del Toro, Lisa Henson, Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Gary Ungar Netflix
Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” Netflix
Guy Nattiv “Golda” Bleecker Street
Halina Reijn “Bodies Bodies Bodies” A24
Henry Selick “Wendell and Wild” Netflix
Hirokazu Koreeda “Broker” Neon
Hong Sang-soo “Walk Up” No U.S. Distribution
Hubert Davis “Black Ice” No U.S. Distribution
J.D. Dillard “Devotion” Sony Pictures
Jafar Panahi “No Bears” No U.S. Distribution
James Cameron “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios
James Gray “Armageddon Time” Focus Features
James Morosini “I Love My Dad” Magnolia Pictures
Jared Stern “DC League of Super Pets” Warner Bros
Jaume Collet-Serra “Black Adam” Warner Bros
Jay Chandrasekhar “Easter Sunday” Universal Pictures
Jean-Pierre Dardenne, Luc Dardenne “Tori and Lokita” Janus Films
Jeff Baena “Spin Me Round” IFC Films
Jeremiah Zagar “Hustle” Netflix
Jerzy Skolimowski “EO” Janus Films and Sideshow
Jesse Eisenberg “When You Finish Saving the World” A24
Jessica M. Thompson “The Invitation” Sony Pictures
Jim Archer “Brian and Charles” Focus Features
Joanna Hogg “The Eternal Daughter” A24
Joel Crawford, Januel Mercado “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” DreamWorks Animation
Johan Renck “Spaceman” Netflix
John McPhail “Dear David” Lionsgate
John Michael McDonagh “The Forgiven” Roadside Attractions
John Patton Ford “Emily the Criminal” Roadside Attractions
John Ridley “Shirley” Netflix
Jordan Peele “Nope” Universal Pictures
Jørgen Leth, Andreas Koefoed “Music for Black Pigeons” No U.S. Distribution
Joseph Kosinski “Top Gun: Maverick” Paramount Pictures
Josh Gordon, Will Speck “Lyle, Lyle Crocodile” Sony Pictures
Julian Higgins “God’s Country” IFC Films
Julie Cohen, Betsy West “Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down” Briarcliff Entertainment
Jung Woo-sung “A Man of Reason” No U.S. Distribution
Justin Kurzel “Nitram” IFC Films
Karen Maine “Rosaline” Hulu
Kasi Lemmons “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” Sony Pictures
Kathlyn Horan “The Return of Tanya Tucker: Featuring Brandi Carlile” Sony Pictures Classics
Kenneth Branagh “Death on the Nile” 20th Century Studios
Kim Ki-duk “Call of God” No U.S. Distribution
Kogonada “After Yang” A24
Kôji Fukada “Love Life” No U.S. Distribution
Kyle Balda “Minions: The Rise of Gru” Universal Pictures
Laura Poitras “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” No U.S. Distribution
Laura Terruso “About My Father” Lionsgate
Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” Netflix
Lav Diaz “When the Waves are Gone” No U.S. Distribution
Lee Jung-jae “Hunt” No U.S. Distribution
Lena Dunham “Catherine, Called Birdy” Amazon Studios
Lila Neugebauer “Causeway” A24/Apple Original Films
Lise Akoka, Romane Gueret “The Worst Ones” No U.S. Distribution
Lizzie Gottlieb “Turn Every Page” Sony Pictures Classics
Loren Bouchard, Bernard Derriman “The Bob’s Burgers Movie” 20th Century Studios
Luca Guadagnino “Bones & All” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Luca Guadagnino “Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams” Sony Pictures Classics
Lukas Dhont “Close” A24
Madeleine Christian Carion “Driving” No U.S. Distribution
Marc Forster “White Bird: A Wonder Story” Lionsgate
Marc Forster “A Man Called Otto” Sony Pictures
Margaret Brown “Descendant” Netflix
Maria Schrader “She Said” Universal Pictures
Mariama Diallo “Master” Amazon Studios
Mariano Cohn, Gastón Duprat “Official Competition” IFC Films
Marie Kreutzer “Corsage” IFC Films
Mark Mylod “The Menu” Searchlight Pictures
Martin McDonagh “The Banshees of Inisherin” Searchlight Pictures
Mary Nighy “Alice, Darling” Lionsgate
Maryan Touzani “The Blue Caftan” No U.S. Distribution
Matt Reeves “The Batman” Warner Bros.
Mayim Bialik “As They Made Us” Quiver
Mia Hansen-Løve “One Fine Morning” Sony Pictures Classics
Michael Bay “Ambulance” Universal Pictures
Michael Grandage “My Policeman” Amazon Studios
Michael Showalter “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” Focus Features
Michel Hazanavicius “Final Cut” No U.S. Distribution
Nicholas Stoller “Bros” Universal Pictures
Niki Caro “The Mother” Netflix
Noah Baumbach “White Noise” Netflix
Ol Parker “Ticket to Paradise” Universal Pictures
Oleh Malamuzh, Oleksandra Ruban “Mavka: The Forest Song” Feelgood Entertainment
Oliver Hermanus “Living” Sony Pictures Classics
Oliver Stone “Nuclear” No U.S. Distribution
Olivia Wilde “Don’t Worry Darling” Warner Bros
Paolo Virzì “Siccitá” No U.S. Distribution
Park Chan-wook “Decision to Leave” Mubi
Paul Schrader “Master Gardener” No U.S. Distribution
Paul Weitz “Moving On” No U.S. Distribution
Peggy Holmes “Luck” Apple Original Films
Peter Farrelly “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” Apple Original Films
Phyllis Nagy “Call Jane” Roadside Attractions
Pierre Perifel “The Bad Guys” Universal Pictures
Rebecca Zlotowski “Other People’s Children” No U.S. Distribution
Reginald Hudlin “Sidney” Apple Original Films
Rian Johnson “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix
Richard Eyre “Allelujah” No U.S. Distribution
Robert Connolly “Blueback” No U.S. Distribution
Robert Eggers “The Northman” Focus Features
Rodrigo García “Raymond & Ray” Apple Original Films
Romain Gavras “Athena” Netflix
Ron Howard “Thirteen Lives” Amazon Studios/MGM
Roschdy Zem “Our Ties” No U.S. Distribution
Ruben Östlund “Triangle of Sadness” Neon
Ryan Coogler “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
Ryan White “Good Night Oppy” Amazon Studios
S.S. Rajamouli “RRR” Raftar Creations
Saim Sadiq “Joyland” No U.S. Distribution
Sally El Hosaini “The Swimmers” Netflix
Sam Mendes “Empire of Light” Searchlight Pictures
Sam Raimi “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” Marvel Studios
Sanaa Lathan “On the Come Up” Paramount Pictures
Santiago Mitre “Argentina, 1985” Amazon Studios
Sarah Polley “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Scott Cooper “The Pale Blue Eye” Netflix
Scott McGehee, David Siegel “Montana Story” Bleecker Street
Sean Anders, John Morris “Spirited” Apple Original Films
Sebastián Lelio “The Wonder” Netflix
Sergei Loznitsa “The Kiev Trial” No U.S. Distribution
Shekhar Kapur “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” No U.S. Distribution
Shubham Yogi “Kacchey Limbu” No U.S. Distribution
Signe Baumane “My Love Affair with Marriage” No U.S. distribution
Stephanie Allynne, Tig Notaro “Am I OK?” HBO Max
Stephen Frears “The Lost King” Warner Bros.
Stephen Williams “Chevalier” Searchlight Pictures
Steve James “A Compassionate Spy” No U.S. Distribution
Steven Spielberg “The Fabelmans” Universal Pictures
Susanna Nicchiarelli “Chiara” No U.S. Distribution
Taika Waititi “Thor: Love and Thunder” Marvel Studios
Terrence Malick “The Way of the Wind” No U.S. Distribution
Thomas M. Wright “The Stranger” Transmission Films
Ti West “X” A24
Ti West “Pearl” No U.S. Distribution
Tobias Lindholm “The Good Nurse” Netflix
Todd Field “TÁR” Focus Features
Tom George “See How They Run” Searchlight Pictures
Tom Gormican “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” Lionsgate
Vahid Jalilvand “Beyond the Wall” No U.S. Distribution
Vicky Jenson “Spellbound” Apple Original Films
Walter Hill “Dead For a Dollar” No U.S. Distribution
Zachary Wigon “Sanctuary” No U.S. Distribution

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The 95th Oscars ceremony at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC