Oscar Predictions: Best Actress – Cate Blanchett Has a Third Statuette In Her Sights for ‘Tár’

Other contenders include Viola Davis, Danielle Deadwyler, Jennifer Lawrence, Michelle Williams and Michelle Yeoh

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Dec. 2, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actress

Causeway Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Cate Blanchett won her second NYFCC prize for her work in “Tár” from Focus Features. Her first was for “Blue Jasmine” (2013), for which she won her second Academy Award, following her first for “The Aviator” (2004).

By no means does this guarantee her to win as Danielle Deadwyler picked up the Gotham Award for lead performance for “Till.” Though a tiny group of five voters, she got past Blanchett, in addition to Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and even Brendan Fraser (the group went non-gender for its acting categories in 2021).

Also at the Gothams, Michelle Williams received a tribute for her career, which was highlighted by her four previous noms for “Brokeback Mountain” and “Manchester by the Sea.” Her turn as Mitzy, the mother of Sammy in Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” could still factor into the discussion.

Jennifer Lawrence also attended the Gothams, presenting the best feature prize to “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which only helps her presence on the circuit. A previous Oscar winner for “Silver Linings Playbook” and with three other nominations for “Winter’s Bone,” “Joy” and “American Hustle,” Hollywood loves her, and she has been charming voters and audiences everywhere to promote “Causeway.” Her, alongside Brian Tyree Henry, could be a surprise contender for their work.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

Find the SAG Awards predictions for film and Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories on their respective pages.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

Lynsey Weatherspoon / Orion Pict

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankNameFilmDistributor
1Cate Blanchett“Tár”Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
2Michelle Yeoh“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
3Danielle Deadwyler“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son.
4Michelle Williams“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
5Jennifer Lawrence“Causeway”A24/Apple Original Films
A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home.
Next in Line
6Viola Davis“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
A historical epic inspired by the true events that happened in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.
7Olivia Colman“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
8Margot Robbie“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
A tale of outsized ambition and outrageous excess, it traces the rise and fall of multiple characters during an era of unbridled decadence and depravity in early Hollywood.
9Rooney Mara“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
In 2010, the women of an isolated religious community grapple with reconciling their reality with their faith. Based on the novel by Miriam Toews.
10Ana de Armas“Blonde”Netflix
A fictionalized chronicle of the inner life of Marilyn Monroe.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11Taylor Russell“Bones & All”Amazon Studios
12Emma Thompson“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”Searchlight Pictures
13Frankie Corio“Aftersun”A24
14Zar Amir Ebrahimi“Holy Spider”Utopia
15Zoe Kazan“She Said”Universal Pictures
16Dale Dickey“A Love Song”Bleecker Street
17Emma Corrin“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”Netflix
18Vicky Krieps“Corsage”IFC Films
19Jessica Chastain“The Good Nurse”Netflix
20Letitia Wright“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Also In Contention
21Florence Pugh“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros.
22Florence Pugh“The Wonder”Netflix
23Mia Goth“Pearl”A24
24Anna Diop“Nanny”Amazon Studios
25Aubrey Plaza“Emily the Criminal”Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment
26Elizabeth Banks“Call Jane”Roadside Attractions
27Zoe Saldaña“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
28Sally Hawkins“The Lost King”IFC Films
29Naomi Ackie“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
30Thandiwe Newton“God’s Country”IFC Films
Unranked Possible Contenders
Alisha Weir“Matilda”Netflix
Amandla Stenberg“Bodies Bodies Bodies”A24
Sara Klimoska“You Won’t Be Alone”Focus Features
Ana de Armas“Blonde”Netflix
Anamaria Vartolomei“Happening”IFC Films
Andrea Riseborough“To Leslie”Momentum Pictures
Anna Kendrick“Alice, Darling”Lionsgate
Anya Taylor-Joy“The Northman”Focus Features
Anya Taylor-Joy“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Aubrey Plaza“Emily the Criminal”Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment
Bella Ramsey“Catherine Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
Cate Blanchett“Tár”Focus Features
Charibi Dean“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
Constance Wu“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”Sony Pictures
Da’Vine Joy Randolph“On the Come Up”Paramount Pictures
Daisy Edgar-Jones“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Dakota Johnson“Am I OK?”HBO Max
Dakota Johnson“Persuasion”Netflix
Dale Dickey“A Love Song”Bleecker Street
Danielle Deadwyler“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
Dianna Agron“As They Made Us”Quiver
Elizabeth Banks“Call Jane”Roadside Attractions
Elizabeth Olsen*“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”Marvel Studios
Emma Corrin“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”Netflix
Emma Thompson“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”Hulu/Searchlight Pictures
Florence Pugh“The Wonder”Netflix
Florence Pugh“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Frankie Corio“Aftersun”A24
Freida Pinto“Mr. Malcolm’s List”Bleecker Street
Garcija Filipovic“Murina”Kino Lorber
Haley Lu Richardson“Montana Story”Bleecker Street
Jane Fonda“Moving On”No U.S. Distribution
Janelle Monáe*“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Jennifer Lawrence“Causeway”A24/Apple Original Films
Jenny Slate“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”A24
Jessica Chastain“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Jessica Chastain*“The Forgiven”Roadside Attractions
Jessie Buckley“Men”A24
Jodie Turner-Smith“After Yang”A24
Julia Roberts“Ticket to Paradise”Universal Pictures
Juliette Binoche“Both Sides of the Blade”IFC Films
Léa Seydoux“One Fine Morning”Sony Pictures Classics
Léa Seydoux*“Crimes of the Future”Neon
Lesley Manville“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Letitia Wright“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Letitia Wright“The Silent Twins”Focus Features
Lyric Ross“Wendell and Wild”Netflix
Manal Issa“The Swimmers”Netflix
Margaret Qualley“Stars at Noon”A24
Margot Robbie“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Margot Robbie“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Mia Goth“Pearl”A24
Michelle Dockery“Downton Abbey: A New Era”Focus Features
Michelle Williams“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Michelle Yeoh“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
Naomi Ackie“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
Natalie Portman*“Thor: Love and Thunder”Marvel Studios
Nathalie Issa“The Swimmers”Netflix
Olivia Colman“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Penélope Cruz“Official Competition”IFC Films
Regina Hall“Master”Amazon Studios
Regina Hall“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul”Universal Pictures
Rooney Mara*“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Sally Hawkins“The Lost King”IFC Films
Sandra Drzymalska“EO”Janus Films and Sideshow
Saoirse Ronan“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
Sigourney Weaver“The Good House”Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions
Sosie Bacon“Smile”Paramount Pictures
Tamara Lawrance“The Silent Twins”Focus Features
Tang Wei“Decision to Leave”Mubi
Taylor Russell“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Tessa Thompson“The Listener”No U.S. Distribution
Thandiwe Newton“All the Old Knives”Amazon Studios
Thandiwe Newton“God’s Country”IFC Films
Tilda Swinton“Three Thousand Years of Longing”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Vicky Krieps“Corsage”IFC Films
Viola Davis“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
Virginie Efira“Paris Memories”Pathé
Zar Amir Ebrahimi“Holy Spider”Utopia
Zaris-Angel Hator“The Sea Beast”Netflix
Zoe Kazan“She Said”Universal Pictures
Zoe Saldaña“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)

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