Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 2, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actress
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Cate Blanchett won her second NYFCC prize for her work in “Tár” from Focus Features. Her first was for “Blue Jasmine” (2013), for which she won her second Academy Award, following her first for “The Aviator” (2004).
By no means does this guarantee her to win as Danielle Deadwyler picked up the Gotham Award for lead performance for “Till.” Though a tiny group of five voters, she got past Blanchett, in addition to Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and even Brendan Fraser (the group went non-gender for its acting categories in 2021).
Also at the Gothams, Michelle Williams received a tribute for her career, which was highlighted by her four previous noms for “Brokeback Mountain” and “Manchester by the Sea.” Her turn as Mitzy, the mother of Sammy in Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” could still factor into the discussion.
Jennifer Lawrence also attended the Gothams, presenting the best feature prize to “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which only helps her presence on the circuit. A previous Oscar winner for “Silver Linings Playbook” and with three other nominations for “Winter’s Bone,” “Joy” and “American Hustle,” Hollywood loves her, and she has been charming voters and audiences everywhere to promote “Causeway.” Her, alongside Brian Tyree Henry, could be a surprise contender for their work.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.