Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 2, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actor
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Colin Farrell is working his way up the rankings, taking the top spot for the first time on the prediction charts for his work in “The Banshees of Inisherin.” With the Volpi Cup out of Venice and now the New York Film Critics Circle, which was a shared prize with his other work in “After Yang,” he’s beaten frontrunner Brendan Fraser for “The Whale,’ on two occasions. While it’s still plenty early and anything can still happen. It’s worth noting the accomplishment of the Irish actor in a film that is also currently holding the number one spot in best picture.
That doesn’t mean Austin Butler can’t sneak in and take it for his work in Baz Luhrmann’s “Elvis,” which continues to screen like gangbusters for voters.
Also rising this week is Adam Sandler for “Hustle,” following an incredible Gotham Awards speech and Paul Mescal for “Aftersun,” who’s movie is still being discovered with love pouring in.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.