Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.
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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
UPDATED: March 24, 2022
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:
Troy Kotsur, supporting actor nominee for “CODA,” is the second deaf actor to be nominated after his co-star Marlee Matlin won an Oscar for lead actress for “Children of a Lesser God” (1986), the first film directed by a woman to be nominated for best picture. He’s won BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice Awards, and that’s powerful heading into the evening, especially with “CODA” headed towards a possible Oscar statuette.
Kodi Smit-McPhee is the 16th performer to win both supporting actor honors from both the New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. He’s also the youngest person to ever achieve the feat. The others are: Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project” (2017), Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” (2016), J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash” (2014), Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club” (2013), Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds” (2009), William Hurt, “A History of Violence” (2005), Bill Murray, “Rushmore” (1998), Burt Reynolds, “Boogie Nights” (1997), Martin Landau, “Ed Wood” (1994), Gene Hackman, “Unforgiven” (1992), Morgan Freeman, “Street Smart” (1987), Jack Nicholson, “Terms of Endearment” (1983), John Lithgow, “The World According to Garp” (1982), John Gielgud, “Arthur” (1981) and Melvin Douglas, “Being There” (1979). He may have some of his votes siphoned by his co-star Jesse Plemons, who was also nominated, which may have paved the way for Kotsur.
Belfast native Ciarán Hinds finally received the recognition he’s deserved with an Oscar nomination for his role in the Focus Features picture “Belfast.” Hinds has been a character actor for decades with memorable performances in films like “Munich” (2005), “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” (2011) and the “Harry Potter” and “Game of Thrones” series.
On paper, J.K. Simmons’ casting as William Frawley, who played neighbor-sidekick Fred Mertz on “I Love Lucy,” is absolutely perfect. It’s been seven years since Simmons ran away with best supporting actor for “Whiplash” (2014), and gets the film’s biggest chuckles but his inclusion seems to be the reward here.
It’s Kotsur’s to lose.
Will win: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
Could win: Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
Should win: Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Should have been here: Vincent Lindon, “Titane” (Neon)
Precursor Awards Leader: Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Awards Season Calendar
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Supporting Actor)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most prominent Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Walter Brennan has the most wins in this category with three, while Mahershala Ali, Michael Caine, Melvyn Douglas, Anthony Quinn, Jason Robards, Peter Ustinov and Christoph Waltz have two. With four apiece, the most nominations in this category are shared between Brennan, Jeff Bridges, Robert Duvall, Arthur Kennedy, Jack Nicholson, Al Pacino, and Claude Rains. Christopher Plummer distinguishes being the oldest winner ever at 82 for “Beginners” and nominee for “All the Money in the World” at 88. The youngest winner is Timothy Hutton for his debut performance at 20 for “Ordinary People,” while Justin Henry is the youngest nominee ever at eight for “Kramer vs. Kramer.”.
2022 Academy Awards Predictions
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Actor
- Best Actress
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Supporting Actress
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Adapted Screenplay
- Best Animated Feature
- Best Production Design
- Best Cinematography
- Best Costume Design
- Best Film Editing
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Best Sound
- Best Visual Effects
- Best Original Score
- Best Original Song
- Best Documentary Feature
- Best International Feature
- Best Animated Short
- Best Documentary Short
- Best Live-Action Short
2021 Oscars predictions are here.
About the Academy Awards (Oscars)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
- The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022