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Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor – Can Jesse Plemons Pull a Jennifer Tilly Oscar Morning Surprise?

Other supporting actor contenders include Ben Affleck, Jamie Dornan, Ciarán Hinds, Troy Kotsur, Jared Leto and J.K. Simmons

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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

UPDATED: Jan 27, 2022

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: With the “Belfast” boys out at SAG, could one or both of Ciarán Hinds or Jamie Dornan still make it? It’ll be close but we’ll see where BAFTA falls on the subject.

The race could be down to Troy Kotsur for “CODA” and Kodi Smit-McPhee for “The Power of the Dog.” Both have performed very well on the circuit, with the latter leading the charge and getting swept in with the love for Jane Campion. This could even lead to an additional surprise nomination for his co-star Jesse Plemons, mimicking a shock-like Jennifer Tilly, who was recognized alongside the eventual supporting actress winner Dianne Wiest for “Bullets over Broadway” (1994).

In Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age story, Bradley Cooper’s role is brief, with only about seven minutes of screen time. But he steals the movie as Jon Peters, the ex-boyfriend of Barbra Streisand. Only four actors have won with roles under 10 minutes in Oscar history — Gloria Grahame in “The Bad and the Beautiful” (1952), Ben Johnson in “The Last Picture Show” (1971), Beatrice Straight in “Network” (1976) and Judi Dench in “Shakespeare in Love” (1998). SAG came to his aid, so he may have secured his spot.

The BAFTA shortlist includes two Latinos: David Alvarez (“West Side Story”) and Oscar-winner Benicio del Toro (“The French Dispatch”). Does either of them have a shot? What about Colman Domingo (“Zola”), who may seem like a longshot but is well known and beloved in the acting community.

The additional love for “Being the Ricardos” has propelled it forward, likely to nab a spot for best picture. That has seemed to increase the chances for J.K. Simmons who was absent from Globe and SAG but did get Critics Choice. Also unsure if Ben Affleck could go the way of Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”) or Idris Elba (“The Harder They Fall”), who nabbed all necessary precursors, but fell off in the end.

Oscar voting is now open until Feb. 1.

Precursor Awards Leader: Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2021-2022) – coming soon
Awards Season Calendar


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Amazon Studios
AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
RANK ACTOR FILM DISTRIBUTOR
1 Kodi Smit-McPhee “The Power of the Dog” Netflix
2 Troy Kotsur “CODA” Apple Original Films
3 Bradley Cooper “Licorice Pizza” MGM/United Artists Releasing
4 Ciarán Hinds “Belfast” Focus Features
5 J.K. Simmons “Being the Ricardos” Amazon Studios
NEXT IN LINE
6 Jamie Dornan “Belfast” Focus Features
7 Jared Leto “House of Gucci” MGM/United Artists Releasing
8 Ben Affleck “The Tender Bar” Amazon Studios
9 Jesse Plemons “The Power of the Dog” Netflix
10 Benicio del Toro “The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun” Searchlight Pictures
OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS
11 Mark Rylance “Don’t Look Up” Netflix
12 Al Pacino “House of Gucci” MGM/United Artists Releasing
13 Vincent Lindon “Titane” Neon
14 Mike Faist “West Side Story” 20th Century Studios
15 Timothy Spall “Spencer” Neon/Topic Studios
16 Woody Norman “C’mon C’mon” A24
17 Robin de Jesús “Tick, Tick … Boom!” Netflix
18 Jonah Hill “Don’t Look Up” Netflix
19 Jason Isaacs “Mass” Bleecker Street
20 David Alvarez “West Side Story” 20th Century Studios
ALSO IN CONTENTION
21 Ben Affleck “The Last Duel” 20th Century Studios
22 Jeffrey Wright “The French Dispatch” Searchlight Pictures
23 Richard Jenkins “The Humans” A24/Showtime
24 Andrew Garfield “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” Searchlight Pictures
25 Colman Domingo “Zola” A24
26 Idris Elba “The Harder They Fall” Netflix
27 Jon Bernthal “King Richard” Warner Bros
28 Corey Hawkins “The Tragedy of Macbeth” Apple Original Films/A24
29 Terence Stamp “Last Night in Soho” Focus Features
30 Sean Penn “Licorice Pizza” MGM/United Artists Releasing
UNRANKED LISTING
Adam Beach “Swan Song” Apple Original Films
Aditya Geddada “Encounter” Amazon Studios
Adrien Brody “The French Dispatch” Searchlight Pictures
Alex Lawther “The Last Duel” 20th Century Studios
Alex Wolff “Pig” Neon
Alexander Skarsgård “Passing” Netflix
André Holland “Passing” Netflix
Andrew Garfield “Spider-Man: No Way Home” Sony Pictures
Arsenio Hall “Coming 2 America” Amazon Studios
Ben Kingsley “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” Marvel Studios
Ben Mendelsohn “Cyrano” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Benedict Wong “Nine Days” Sony Pictures Classics
Benedict Wong “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” Marvel Studios
Benicio del Toro “No Sudden Move” HBO Max
Benny Safdie “Licorice Pizza” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Bill Duke “No Sudden Move” HBO Max
Bill Murray “The French Dispatch” Searchlight Pictures
Billy Magnussen “The Many Saints of Newark” Warner Bros
Billy Magnussen “No Time to Die” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Billy Porter “Cinderella” Amazon Studios
Bradley Whitford “Tick, Tick … Boom!” Netflix
Brendan Fraser “No Sudden Move” HBO Max
Brendan Gleeson “The Tragedy of Macbeth” Apple Original Films/A24
Brian d’Arcy James “West Side Story” 20th Century Studios
Chang Chen “Dune” Warner Bros
Christopher Lloyd “The Tender Bar” Amazon Studios
Cillian Murphy “A Quiet Place Part II” Paramount Pictures
Colin Firth “Mothering Sunday” Sony Pictures Classics
Corey Hawkins “In the Heights” Warner Bros
Corey Stoll “The Many Saints of Newark” Warner Bros
Craig muMs Grant “No Sudden Move” HBO Max
Damian Lewis “Dream Horse” Bleecker Street
Daniel Durant “CODA” Apple Original Films
Daniel Ranieri “The Tender Bar” Amazon Studios
Dave Bautista “Dune” Warner Bros
David Dastmalchian “The Suicide Squad” Warner Bros
David Harbour “No Sudden Move” HBO Max
David Morrissey “The Colour Room” Sky Cinema
David Strathairn “Nightmare Alley” Searchlight Pictures
Delroy Lindo “The Harder They Fall” Netflix
Dennis Quaid “American Underdog” Lionsgate
Dwight Yoakam “Cry Macho” Warner Bros
Ed Harris “The Lost Daughter” Netflix
Eduardo Minett “Cry Macho” Warner Bros
Edwin Hodge “The Tomorrow War” Amazon Studios
Eugenio Derbez “CODA” Apple Original Films
Florian Munteanu “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” Marvel Studios
Forest Whitaker “Respect” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Gary Sinise “Joe Bell” Solstice Studios
Gregory Diaz IV “In the Heights” Warner Bros
Himesh Patel “Don’t Look Up” Netflix
Idris Elba “Concrete Cowboy” Netflix
Idris Elba “The Suicide Squad” Warner Bros
J.K. Simmons “The Tomorrow War” Amazon Studios
Jack Huston “House of Gucci” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Jai Courtney “The Suicide Squad” Warner Bros
James Spencer Ashworth “The Souvenir Part II” A24
Jason Mamoa “Dune” Warner Bros
Javier Bardem “Dune” Warner Bros
Jeffrey Wright “No Time to Die” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Jeremy Irons “House of Gucci” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Jermaine Fowler “Coming 2 America” Amazon Studios
Jimmy Smits “In the Heights” Warner Bros
Joel Edgerton “The Green Knight” A24
Joel Kinnaman “The Suicide Squad” Warner Bros
John Cena “The Suicide Squad” Warner Bros
John Magaro “The Many Saints of Newark” Warner Bros
Jon Bernthal “The Many Saints of Newark” Warner Bros
Jon Hamm “No Sudden Move” HBO Max
Jonathan Groff “The Matrix: Resurrections” Warner Bros
Josh Brolin “Dune” Warner Bros
Joshua Henry “Tick, Tick … Boom!” Netflix
Julio Torres “Together Together” Bleecker Street
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. “Cyrano” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Kevin Kline “The Starling” Netflix
Kieran Culkin “No Sudden Move” HBO Max
Kit Harington “Eternals” Marvel Studios
Kumail Nanjiani “Eternals” Marvel Studios
Lakeith Stanfield “The Harder They Fall” Netflix
Leslie Odom, Jr. “The Many Saints of Newark” Warner Bros
Lil Rel Howery “Free Guy” 20th Century Studios
Lucian-River Chauhan “Encounter” Amazon Studios
Luke Kirby “No Man of God” RLJE Films
Marc Anthony “In the Heights” Warner Bros
Mark O’Brien “Blue Bayou” Focus Features
Marton Csokas “The Last Duel” 20th Century Studios
Mathieu Amalric “The French Dispatch” Searchlight Pictures
Matt Smith “Last Night in Soho” Focus Features
Matthew Perry “Don’t Look Up” Netflix
Michaael Gandolfini “The Many Saints of Newark” Warner Bros
Michael Rooker “The Suicide Squad” Warner Bros
Neil Patrick Harris “The Matrix: Resurrections” Warner Bros
Noah Jupe “No Sudden Move” HBO Max
O-T Fagbenie “Black Widow” Marvel Studios
Oscar Isaac “Dune” Warner Bros
Owen Teale “Dream Horse” Bleecker Street
Owen Wilson “The French Dispatch” Searchlight Pictures
Paul Walter Hauser “Cruella” Disney Plus
Pete Davidson “The Suicide Squad” Warner Bros
Peter Capaldi “The Suicide Squad” Warner Bros
Peter Sarsgaard “The Lost Daughter” Netflix
Pierce Brosnan “False Positive” A24
Rami Malek “No Time to Die” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Ray Liotta “The Many Saints of Newark” Warner Bros
Ray Liotta “No Sudden Move” HBO Max
Ray Winstone “Black Widow” Marvel Studios
Reed Birney “Mass” Bleecker Street
Reid Miller “Joe Bell” Solstice Studios
Richard Ayoade “The Souvenir Part II” A24
Richard E. Grant “Everybody’s Talking About Jamie” Amazon Studios
Richard Jenkins “Nightmare Alley” Searchlight Pictures
Rob Morgan “Don’t Look Up” Netflix
Ron Perlman “Don’t Look Up” Netflix
Ron Perlman “Nightmare Alley” Searchlight Pictures
Rory Cochrane “Encounter” Amazon Studios
Sam Richardson “The Tomorrow War” Amazon Studios
Scott Haze “Old Henry” Shout! Studios
Simon Helberg “Annette” Amazon Studios
Skeet Ulrich “Finch” Apple Original Films
Stanley Tucci “Worth” Netflix
Stellan Skarsgård “Dune” Warner Bros
Stephen McKinley Henderson “Bruised” Netflix
Stephen McKinley Henderson “Dune” Warner Bros
Stephen Park “The French Dispatch” Searchlight Pictures
Steven Yeun “The Humans” A24
Sylvester Stallone “The Suicide Squad” Warner Bros
Timothée Chalamet “Don’t Look Up” Netflix
Timothée Chalamet “The French Dispatch” Searchlight Pictures
Timothy Olyphant “The Starling” Netflix
Tobey Maguire “Spider-Man: No Way Home” Sony Pictures
Toby Jones “The Electrical Life of Louis Wain” Amazon Studios
Toni Servillo “The Hand of God” Netflix
Tony Goldwyn “King Richard” Warner Bros
Tony Hale “Being the Ricardos” Amazon Studios
Tony Leung “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” Marvel Studios
Tracy Morgan “Coming 2 America” Amazon Studios
Tye Sheridan “The Card Counter” Focus Features
Tyler Perry “Don’t Look Up” Netflix
Vincent D’Onofrio “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” Searchlight Pictures
Vincent D’Onofrio “The Unforgivable” Netflix
Vondie Curtis-Hall “Blue Bayou” Focus Features
Wesley Snipes “Coming 2 America” Amazon Studios
Willem Dafoe “Nightmare Alley” Searchlight Pictures
Willem Dafoe “Spider-Man: No Way Home” Sony Pictures
Willem Dafoe “The Card Counter” Focus Features
William Hurt “Black Widow” Marvel Studios
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II “The Matrix: Resurrections” Warner Bros
Yuen Wah “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” Marvel Studios
Zeljko Ivanek “The Last Duel” 20th Century Studios

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Supporting Actor)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most prominent Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Walter Brennan has the most wins in this category with three, while Mahershala Ali, Michael Caine, Melvyn Douglas, Anthony Quinn, Jason Robards, Peter Ustinov and Christoph Waltz have two. With four apiece, the most nominations in this category are shared between Brennan, Jeff Bridges, Robert Duvall, Arthur Kennedy, Jack Nicholson, Al Pacino, and Claude Rains. Christopher Plummer distinguishes being the oldest winner ever at 82 for “Beginners” and nominee for “All the Money in the World” at 88. The youngest winner is Timothy Hutton for his debut performance at 20 for “Ordinary People,” while Justin Henry is the youngest nominee ever at eight for “Kramer vs. Kramer.”.


2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022