Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.
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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
UPDATED: Oct 21, 2021
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: Paul Thomas Anderson wrote “Licorice Pizza,” along with directing and producing the film with Sara Murphy. The project, distributed by United Artists Releasing, was backed by MGM, in association with Bron Creative and Anderson’s Ghoulardi Film Company, and screened for select critics and journalists last week. Word so far is positive. If PTA were to win an Oscar, a writing statue would feel like the most likely based on his awards resume.
Mike Mills’ film is not going to appeal to everyone, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t share that this could be the best screenplay written in the last decade, something the writers’ branch may recognize. With other fall festivals on the docket, word of mouth could grow, similar to when another Phoenix film, “Her,” premiered at New York Film Festival. At the time, I was a skeptic, thinking the Academy couldn’t recognize such a breathtaking achievement by writer and director Spike Jonze. By the end of the season, the movie ran away with original screenplay, and picked up a very impressive six Oscar noms in total. “C’mon C’mon” could follow a similar trajectory.
None of this could matter if “Belfast” is creating a “sweep”-like campaign and is completely embraced by all branches, including the scribes.
Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, March 27, 2022.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Original Screenplay)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Woody Allen has the most wins in original screenplay with three and nominations at 16. Charles Brackett, Paddy Chayefsky, Quentin Tarantino and Billy Wilder have all won twice. Federico Fellini is the second most nominated writer with six nominations. The most recent winner is Emerald Fennell for “Promising Young Woman.”
2022 Academy Awards Predictions
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Actor
- Best Actress
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Supporting Actress
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Adapted Screenplay
- Best Animated Feature
- Best Production Design
- Best Cinematography
- Best Costume Design
- Best Film Editing
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Best Sound
- Best Visual Effects
- Best Original Score
- Best Original Song
- Best Documentary Feature
- Best International Feature
- Best Animated Short [coming soon]
- Best Documentary Short [coming soon]
- Best Live-Action Short [coming soon]
About the Academy Awards (Oscars)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
- The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 27, 2022