Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

UPDATED: March 24, 2022

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY

Three Netflix films manage to make the cut – Matthew Ogens’ “Audible,” Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk’s “Lead Me Home” and Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei’s “Three Songs for Benazir.”

The momentum for a movie like Apple Original Films’ “CODA” could positively affect Ogens’ short, which takes a poignant look into a group of friends from Maryland School for the Deaf dealing with a tragic loss of a friend. With a runtime just two minutes shy of qualifying for documentary feature, the 39-minute doc is one of the longest of the contenders.

Kos and Shenk’s film has the advantage of getting support from Los Angeles members, as the film looks at the unhoused population, something that hits very close to home. The film also runs for 39 minutes.

Netflix brought out the big guns with “Three Songs for Benazir,” which features Prince Harry moderating a conversation. This could have a significant impact on the voters overseas. The film has also won several honors already, including a Cinema Eye Honor award. The runtime is 22 minutes.

One year after being nominated with composer Kris Bowers for “A Concerto Is a Conversation,” Ben Proudfoot is back with another nom for “The Queen of Basketball,” a beautiful portrait of NBA draft legend Lucy Harris. Shaquille O’Neal as a producer may give the film some clout in the race, especially with wins from the Critics Choice Documentary Awards and Palm Springs International Shortsfest. The runtime is 22 minutes.

Finally, Jay Rosenblatt’s “When We Were Bullies” examines his childhood from a 50-year distance. At 36 minutes, the film has popped up at multiple festivals, including Sundance, but could be too under the radar to go the distance.

Going with “Audible” to squeak this one out.

Will win: “Audible” (Netflix) – Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean
Could win: “The Queen of Basketball” (The New York Times) – Ben Proudfoot
Should win: “Audible” (Netflix) – Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean


ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

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AND THE NOMINEES ARE:
RANK FILM DISTRIBUTOR DIRECTOR
1 “Audible” Netflix Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean
2 “The Queen of Basketball” The New York Times Ben Proudfoot
3 “Three Songs for Benazir” Netflix Elizabeth Mirzaei, Gulistan Mirzaei
4 “When We Were Bullies” Locomotion Films Jay Rosenblatt
5 “Lead Me Home” Netflix Pedro Kos, Jon Shenk

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022