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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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UPDATED: March 24, 2022


The race for best cinematography is among the most competitive races this year at the Oscars. It’s between Greig Fraser’s diligent work on “Dune” and Ari Wegner’s passionately framed “The Power of the Dog.” In a close race that could go in any direction, both are the top two leading winners of the awards season so far.

The American Society of Cinematographers handed out its top prize in feature film visual storytelling to “Dune.” Last year’s winner, Erik Messerschmidt for “Mank,” who presented the feature film prize to Greig Fraser, won the Oscar without any other major precursor. Fraser is aided by the domination of “Dune” in the artisan races, in addition to the success and beauty of Matt Reeves’ “The Batman” which may have helped during final voting.

While Wegner’s nomination is historic as the second woman to be nominated for cinematography, and the Critics Choice gave her a boost with their award, she’s hoping the love for “The Power of the Dog” runs deep enough to push her over the edge. If “The Power of the Dog” were to win best picture, the movie would be the first shot by a woman to win the top prize. That would also be the case for “CODA” cinematographer Paula Huidobro, who wasn’t nominated.

Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Greig Fraser
Could win: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) – Ari Wegner
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Greig Fraser
Should have been here: “In the Heights” (Warner Bros) – Alice Brooks

Precursor Awards Leader:
“Dune” (Warner Bros) – Greig Fraser
Awards Season Calendar

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1 “Dune” Warner Bros Greig Fraser
2 “The Power of the Dog” Netflix Ari Wegner
3 “Nightmare Alley” Searchlight Pictures Dan Laustsen
4 “West Side Story” 20th Century Studios Janusz Kamiński
5 “The Tragedy of Macbeth” Apple Original Films/A24 Bruno Delbonnel


The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most significant Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each.

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022