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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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UPDATED: March 24, 2022


Walt Disney Pictures’ “Encanto,” directed by Jared Bush and Byron Howard and co-directed by Charise Castro Smith, is a box office success and doing great numbers on Disney Plus. It made history with all three of its nominations. As one of the producers, Yvett Merino is the first Latina ever nominated in animated feature. Composer Germaine Franco is the first Latina recognized in original score and Lin-Manuel Miranda is the first Latino to be nominated more than once in original song, bringing him one step closer to EGOT status.

The album for “Encanto” has spent fifth weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard charts and is one of six soundtracks to have clocked at least five weeks in the top spot in the last three decades, and the most since “Frozen” (2013). In addition, the hit song “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” is topping the top 40 songs chart, along with other tracks appearing – “The Family Madrigal,” “Surface Pressure” and “What Else Can I Do?” and the Oscar-nominated “Dos Oruguitas.”

It’s not a foregone conclusion for “Encanto” in this category though with the history-making “Flee” and the critical darling “The Mitchells vs. The Machines” offering up viable alternatives to be recognized.

Distributed by Netflix, “Mitchells” has won the most precursor prizes with over 25 trophies this season. The film received critical acclaim for its stunning animation and hilarious storytelling and the performances of its voice actors and themes surrounding LGBTQ representation. It also won Critics Choice and the Annie Awards.

From Neon, Jonas Poher Rasmussen’s animated documentary that’s representing Denmark made history with three noms in its respective categories. Does it gain support to win in one of them?

It might be closer than many presume.

“Luca” and the Annie Award leader “Raya and the Last Dragon” have supporters but seem too far behind to catch up.

Will win: “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
Could win: “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” (Netflix) – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
Should win: “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
Should have been here: “Ron’s Gone Wrong” (20th Century Studios) – Sarah Smith, Jean-Philippe Vine

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)


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1 “Encanto” Walt Disney Pictures Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
2 “The Mitchells vs The Machines” Netflix Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
3 “Flee” Neon Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
4 “Raya and the Last Dragon” Walt Disney Pictures Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho
5 “Luca” Pixar Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren


The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most prominent Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. The animated feature category was introduced in 2001 when “Shrek” was the first awarded. Five animators have won this award twice: Brad Bird, Pete Docter, Jonas Rivera, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich. Bird and Docter are also among the most nominated, with Ron Clements, Dean DeBlois, Travis Knight, Hayao Miyazaki, Rich Moore, and Chris Sanders.

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022