Oscars Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay – Maggie Gyllenhaal’s ‘The Lost Daughter’ Gaining Momentum

Other contenders include "The Power of the Dog," "Nightmare Alley," "CODA," "Passing" and "Dune."

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

UPDATED: Oct 21, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: In the case of “Power of the Dog” Campion has thrown down the gauntlet and orchestrated the best film of her impressive career, even surpassing “The Piano,” for which she became the second woman to be nominated for directing. Judging by the reception, the film performed fairly well for festivalgoers and could be the ace in the hole for Netflix for awards season. If Campion is nominated for directing, she would be the first woman to return for a second nom. Kathryn Bigelow famously was snubbed for “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012) after winning for “The Hurt Locker” (2009).

With one of Campion’s larger budgets, she makes every dollar count. Production design, cinematography, costumes, editing and sound are all on the table. Composer Jonny Greenwood could have himself a double mention on Oscar nominations morning since he did the music for “Spencer” with Kristen Stewart, which also played at the fest.

In regards to Gyllenhaal’s debut feature, the dense and heavy material showcases her talents as a filmmaker and storyteller. As we continue to see many of our gifted actresses taking the helm behind the camera — such as Regina King (“One Night in Miami”) or later this year Halle Berry (“Bruised”) – it’s an exciting landscape for interesting stories to be told. “The Lost Daughter” could make inroads in adapted screenplay, with its exploration of themes surrounding motherhood and society’s expectations of a woman’s place in it.

The cast is dynamic, with Academy Award winner Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) leading the charge. One year after coming close to nabbing her second for “The Father,” she could be a competitive force once again. Similar to her winning turn in “The Favourite,” she’s not a clear leading candidate, especially if the plan is to campaign her co-star Jessie Buckley, who portrays the younger version of Colman’s character, in the supporting actress category.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, March 27, 2022.

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)


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ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

RANK FILM STUDIO WRITER(S)
1 The Power of the Dog Netflix Jane Campion
2 The Lost Daughter Netflix Maggie Gyllenhaal
3 CODA Apple Original Films Siân Heder
4 Nightmare Alley Searchlight Pictures Guillermo del Toro, Kim Morgan
5 The Tender Bar Amazon Studios William Monahan
NEXT IN LINE
6 Shiva Baby Utopia Emma Seligman
7 Passing Netflix Rebecca Hall
8 The Tragedy of Macbeth A24/Apple Original Films Joel Coen
9 Dune Warner Bros Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth
10 Drive My Car Sideshow and Janus Films Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS
11 Compartment No. 6 Sony Pictures Classics Juho Kuosmanen, Andris Feldmanis, Livia Ulman
12 tick, tick…Boom! Netflix Steven Levenson
13 Mothering Sunday Sony Pictures Classics Alice Birch
14 A Journal for Jordan Sony Pictures Virgil Williams
15 The Green Knight A24 David Lowery
16 The Humans A24/Showtime Stephen Karam
17 The Guilty Netflix Nic Pizzolatto
18 West Side Story 20th Century Studios Tony Kushner
19 House of Gucci United Artists Releasing/MGM Becky Johnston, Roberto Bentivegna
20 Cyrano United Artists Releasing/MGM Joe Wright
ALSO IN CONTENTION
21 No Time to Die United Artists Releasing/MGM Cary Fukunaga, Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, Phoebe Waller-Bridge
22 The Eyes of Tammy Faye Searchlight Pictures Abe Sylvia
23 Eternals Marvel Studios Chloe Zhao, Patrick Burleigh, Ryan Firpo
24 In the Heights Warner Bros Quiara Alegría Hudes
25 Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Marvel Studios Destin Daniel Cretton, Dave Callaham, Andrew Lanham
26 The Matrix: Resurrections Warner Bros. Lana Wachowkski, David Mitchell, Aleksandar Hemon
27 Spider-Man: No Way Home Sony Pictures Chris McKenna, Erik Sommers
28 A Quiet Place Part II Paramount Pictures John Krasinski
29 The Suicide Squad Warner Bros. James Gunn
30 The Many Saints of Newark Warner Bros. David Chase, Lawrence Konner
UNRANKED LISTING
12 Mighty Orphans Sony Pictures Classics Ty Roberts, Lane Garrison
Coming 2 America Amazon Studios Kenya Barris, Barry W. Blaustein, David Sheffield, Justin Kanew
Cry Macho Warner Bros. N. Richard Nash and Nich Schenk
Dear Evan Hansen Universal Pictures Steven Levenson
Dream Horse Bleecker Street Neil McKay
My Name is Pauli Murray Amazon Studios Talleah BRidges McMahon, Julie Cohen, Cinque Northern, Betsy West

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Adapted Screenplay)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Only nine writers have won best adapted screenplay twice – Robert Bolt, Francis Ford Coppola, Ruth Prawer Jhabvala, Joseph L. Mankiewicz, Alexander Payne, Mario Puzo, Michael Wilson, Alvin Sargent and George Seaton. Billy Wilder had the most nominations with seven, with John Huston close behind with six. James Ivory is the oldest nominee and winner ever for “Call Me by Your Name” at 89 while Joseph L. Mankiewicz is the youngest nominee ever at 22 for “Skippy,” with Charlie Wachtel being the youngest winner at 32 for “BlacKkKlansman.” The most recent winner is Florian Zeller for “The Father.”


2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 27, 2022