Oscars Predictions: Best Actress – Can Kristen Stewart Overcome the SAG Snub for ‘Spencer’?

Other actress contenders include Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, Jennifer Hudson, Nicole Kidman and Tessa Thompson.

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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTRESS

UPDATED: Jan 13, 2022

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: What a difference a week can make, eh? What was originally presumed to be a possible runaway for Kristen Stewart in “Spencer,” a detrimental SAG snub has turned this race upside down. Add in Nicole Kidman’s Golden Globe win for “Being the Ricardos” on the drama side, with Rachel Zegler’s on comedy/musical, who was also omitted from the Globes, we have an interesting race manifesting. That type of fluidity could create a very different looking lineup a la best actress 2003 that included shockers like Keisha Castle-Hughes for “Whale Rider” and Samantha Morton for “In America.”

A previous Oscar-winner for “The Hours,” Kidman, who’s never won a SAG award, could be the leading candidate in a field that has many divided films. The Aaron Sorkin drama that focuses on a single week during the taping of “I Love Lucy,” could be the easiest selection for the branch members to make since it covers their favorite subject – Hollywood.

Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) and Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”) are also incredibly respected within the acting community and should be able to sail through the nominations. That leaves Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”), Alana Haim (“Licorice Pizza”), Jennifer Hudson (“Respect”), Stewart and Zegler for the remaining spots. All of them have their pros and cons, with their own campaign hurdles to clear. Pay close to attention to the next few weeks.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022.

Precursor Awards Leader: Kristen Stewart, “Spencer” (Neon/Topic Studios)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2021-2022) – coming soon
Awards Season Calendar


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©MGM/Courtesy Everett Collectio

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
RANK ACTRESS FILM DISTRIBUTOR
1 Nicole Kidman “Being the Ricardos” Amazon Studios
2 Olivia Colman “The Lost Daughter” Netflix
3 Jessica Chastain “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” Searchlight Pictures
4 Lady Gaga “House of Gucci” MGM/United Artists Releasing
5 Kristen Stewart “Spencer” Neon/Topic Studios
NEXT IN LINE
6 Jennifer Hudson “Respect” MGM/United Artists Releasing
7 Alana Haim “Licorice Pizza” MGM/United Artists Releasing
8 Rachel Zegler “West Side Story” 20th Century Studios
9 Penélope Cruz “Parallel Mothers” Sony Pictures Classics
10 Frances McDormand “The Tragedy of Macbeth” Apple Original Films/A24
OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS
11 Emilia Jones “CODA” Apple Original Films
12 Jennifer Lawrence “Don’t Look Up” Netflix
13 Tessa Thompson “Passing” Netflix
14 Renate Reinsve “The Worst Person in the World” Neon
15 Halle Berry “Bruised” Netflix
16 Jodie Comer “The Last Duel” 20th Century Studios
17 Emma Stone “Cruella” Walt Disney Pictures
18 Rachel Sennott “Shiva Baby” Utopia
19 Rooney Mara “Nightmare Alley” Searchlight Pictures
20 Agatha Rousselle “Titane” Neon
ALSO IN CONTENTION
21 Sandra Bullock “The Unforgivable” Netflix
22 Yllka Gashi “Hive” Kino Lorber
23 Marion Cotillard “Annette” Amazon Studios
24 Scarlett Johansson “Black Widow” Marvel Studios
25 Tilda Swinton “Memoria” Neon
26 Natalie Morales “Language Lessons” Shout! Studios
27 Taylour Paige “Zola” A24
28 Vicky Krieps “Bergman Island” IFC Films
29 Noomi Rapace “Lamb” A24
30 Isabelle Fuhrman “The Novice” IFC Films
UNRANKED LISTING
Alysha Hart “Mogul Mowgli” Strand Releasing
Brittany S. Hall “Test Pattern” Kino Lorber
Camila Cabello “Cinderella” Amazon Studios
Carrie-Anne Moss “The Matrix: Resurrections” Warner Bros
Chanté Adams “A Journal for Jordan” Sony Pictures
Danielle MacDonald “Falling for Figaro” IFC Films
Gemma Chan “Eternals” Marvel Studios
Grace Van Patten “Mayday” Magnolia Pictures
Honor Swinton Byrne “The Souvenir Part II” A24
Jennifer Ehle “John and the Hole” IFC Films
Jessica Barden “Holler” IFC Films
Joséphine Sanz “Petite Maman” Neon
Kaitlyn Dever “Dear Evan Hansen” Universal Pictures
Krisha Fairchild “Freeland” Dark Star Pictures
Léa Seydoux “France” Kino Lorber
Lili Taylor “Paper Spiders” Entertainment Squad
Margot Robbie “The Suicide Squad” Warner Bros
Melissa McCarthy “The Starling” Netflix
Mila Kunis “Four Good Days” Vertical Entertainment
Morfydd Clark “Saint Maud” A24
Natalie Morales “Plan B” Hulu
Odessa Young “Mothering Sunday” Sony Pictures Classics
Patti Harrison “Together Together” Bleecker Street
Paula Beer “Undine” IFC Films
Phoebe Dynevor “The Colour Room” Sky Cinema
Rebecca Hall “The Night House” Searchlight Pictures
Sharon Horgan “Together” Bleecker Street
Sofia Kappel “Pleasure” A24
Sophia Ali “India Sweets and Spices” Bleecker Street
Thomasin McKenzie “Last Night in Soho” Focus Features
Toni Collette “Dream Horse” Bleecker Street
Virginie Efira “Benedetta” IFC Films
Yvonne Strahovski “The Tomorrow War” Amazon Studios
Zazie Beetz “The Harder They Fall” Netflix

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Actress)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood's most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are "Ben-Hur," "Titanic" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are "All About Eve," "Titanic" and "La La Land" at 14. "La La Land" is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most prominent Oscar "losers," meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977's "The Turning Point" and 1985's "The Color Purple" at 11 each. Katharine Hepburn has the most awards in this category with four.

In contrast, 13 women have won two each - Ingrid Bergman, Bette Davis, Sally Field, Jane Fonda, Jodie Foster, Olivia de Havilland, Glenda Jackson, Vivien Leigh, Frances McDormand, Luise Rainer, Meryl Streep, Hilary Swank and Elizabeth Taylor. Streep has the most nominations in this category with 17, Hepburn has 12, and Davis has 10. The oldest winner is Jessica Tandy at 80 for "Driving Miss Daisy," The oldest nominee is Emmanuelle Riva at 85 for "Amour." The youngest winner at 21 is Marlee Matlin ("Children of a Lesser God"), and the youngest nominee at 9 is Quvenzhané Wallis ("Beasts of the Southern Wild").


2022 Academy Awards Predictions

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About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood's most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists' representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022