Oscars Predictions: Best Actress – Can Lady Gaga and Kristen Stewart Fend Off Nicole Kidman?

Other actress contenders include Penélope Cruz, Jennifer Hudson, Jessica Chastain, Tessa Thompson and Jennifer Lawrence.

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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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UPDATED: Nov 26, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: Well-known names are leading the charge in this race. After the debut of Aaron Sorkin’s “Being the Ricardos,” Nicole Kidman’s Lucielle Ball lived up to the hype, and then some. A second viewing of the film has convinced me that she has the goods to go all the way. This is heightened more by the divisive nature of the “House of Gucci,” “The Lost Daughter” and “Spencer,” with the three leading ladies of the films – Lady Gaga, Olivia Colman and Kristen Stewart feeling safe for noms but not foregone conclusions for trips to the Oscar stage.

I’m reminded of shocking omissions such as Amy Adams (“Arrival”) and Jennifer Aniston (“Cake”), which felt like potential winners until they missed out in the end. However, that could give hope and hints for contenders like Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”), Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), Jennifer Hudson (“Respect”) and Frances McDormand (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”).

SAG Awards could make women that seem “dead in the water” have a resurrection (even if it might be short-lived). Look at past SAG nominees like Amy Adams (“Hillbilly Elegy”), Helen Mirren (“Woman in Gold”), and Sarah Silverman (“I Smile Back”). Likewise, actresses like Jodie Comer (“The Last Duel”), Rachel Sennott (“Shiva Baby”) or Tessa Thompson (“Passing”) could have such a moment.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022.

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)

G_00282_RLady Gaga stars as Patrizia Reggiani in Ridley Scott’sHOUSE OF GUCCIA Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures filmPhoto credit: Fabio Lovino© 2021 Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Pictures Inc. All Rights Reserved.


1 Nicole Kidman “Being the Ricardos” Amazon Studios
2 Kristen Stewart “Spencer” Neon/Topic Studios
3 Lady Gaga “House of Gucci” MGM/United Artists Releasing
4 Olivia Colman “The Lost Daughter” Netflix
5 Penélope Cruz “Parallel Mothers” Sony Pictures Classics
6 Frances McDormand “The Tragedy of Macbeth” Apple Original Films/A24
7 Jessica Chastain “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” Searchlight Pictures
8 Jennifer Hudson “Respect” MGM/United Artists Releasing
9 Halle Berry “Bruised” Netflix
10 Tessa Thompson “Passing” Netflix
11 Rachel Zegler “West Side Story” 20th Century Studios
12 Jodie Comer “The Last Duel” 20th Century Studios
13 Alana Haim “Licorice Pizza” MGM/United Artists Releasing
14 Jennifer Lawrence “Don’t Look Up” Netflix
15 Rooney Mara “Nightmare Alley” Searchlight Pictures
16 Emilia Jones “CODA” Apple Original Films
17 Rachel Sennott “Shiva Baby” Utopia
18 Helen Mirren “The Duke” Sony Pictures Classics
19 Vicky Krieps “Bergman Island” IFC Films
20 Renate Reinsve “The Worst Person in the World” Neon
21 Chanté Adams “A Journal for Jordan” Sony Pictures
22 Scarlett Johansson “Black Widow” Marvel Studios
23 Agatha Rousselle “Titane” Neon
24 Natalie Morales “Language Lessons” Shout! Studios
25 Emma Stone “Cruella” Disney Plus
34 Tilda Swinton “Memoria” Neon
26 Sandra Bullock “The Unforgivable” Netflix
28 Marion Cotillard “Annette” Amazon Studios
29 Odessa Young “Mothering Sunday” Sony Pictures Classics
30 Thomasin McKenzie “Last Night in Soho” Focus Features
Alysha Hart “Mogul Mowgli” Strand Releasing
Brittany S. Hall “Test Pattern” Kino Lorber
Camila Cabello “Cinderella” Amazon Studios
Camille Cottin “Stillwater” Focus Features
Carrie-Anne Moss “The Matrix: Resurrections” Warner Bros
Danielle MacDonald “Falling for Figaro” IFC Films
Gemma Chan* “Eternals” Marvel Studios
Grace Van Patten “Mayday” Magnolia Pictures
Honor Swinton Byrne “The Souvenir Part II” A24
Isabelle Fuhrman “The Novice” IFC Films
Jennifer Ehle “John and the Hole” IFC Films
Jessica Barden “Holler” IFC Films
Joséphine Sanz “Petite Maman” Neon
Kaitlyn Dever “Dear Evan Hansen” Universal Pictures
Krisha Fairchild “Freeland” Dark Star Pictures
Léa Seydoux “France” Kino Lorber
Lili Taylor “Paper Spiders” Entertainment Squad
Margot Robbie “The Suicide Squad” Warner Bros
Melissa McCarthy “The Starling” Netflix
Mila Kunis “Four Good Days” Vertical Entertainment
Morfydd Clark “Saint Maud” A24
Natalie Morales “Plan B” Hulu
Noomi Rapace “Lamb” A24
Patti Harrison “Together Together” Bleecker Street
Paula Beer “Undine” IFC Films
Phoebe Dynevor “The Colour Room” Sky Cinema
Rebecca Hall “The Night House” Searchlight Pictures
Sharon Horgan “Together” Bleecker Street
Sofia Kappel “Pleasure” A24
Sophia Ali “India Sweets and Spices” Bleecker Street
Taylour Paige “Zola” A24
Toni Collette “Dream Horse” Bleecker Street
Virginie Efira “Benedetta” IFC Films
Yvonne Strahovski “The Tomorrow War” Amazon Studios
Zazie Beetz “The Harder They Fall” Netflix


The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most prominent Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Katharine Hepburn has the most awards in this category with four.

In contrast, 13 women have won two each – Ingrid Bergman, Bette Davis, Sally Field, Jane Fonda, Jodie Foster, Olivia de Havilland, Glenda Jackson, Vivien Leigh, Frances McDormand, Luise Rainer, Meryl Streep, Hilary Swank and Elizabeth Taylor. Streep has the most nominations in this category with 17, Hepburn has 12, and Davis has 10. The oldest winner is Jessica Tandy at 80 for “Driving Miss Daisy,” The oldest nominee is Emmanuelle Riva at 85 for “Amour.” The youngest winner at 21 is Marlee Matlin (“Children of a Lesser God”), and the youngest nominee at 9 is Quvenzhané Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”).

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022