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Emmy Predictions: Variety Special (Live) – Could the Oscars Slap Away TikTok and the Super Bowl Halftime Show?

Other contenders include 'Live in Front of a Studio Audience,' 'Naomi Judd: A River of Celebration' and The Grammys

Will Smith Chris Rock Slap Oscars
Christopher Polk for Variety
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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE EMMYS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE EMMYS HUB
To see old predictions and commentary, click the EMMY PREDICTIONS ARCHIVES
For film awards predictions go toTHE OSCARS HUB

UPDATED: June 23, 2022

2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:

Cue the active debate about why the 94th Oscars will receive a nomination in this category, in which it has nabbed a slot every year since 2007. Was it an energetic, lively show from the hands of Will Packer and hosts Amy Schumer, Regina Hall and Wanda Sykes? Or is it the infamous slapping of presenter Chris Rock by lead actor winner Will Smith that will nudge them in that direction?

Either way, the 15 contenders submitted (which will produce only three nominees in the category) will have a difficult time topping the 90s nostalgia that took place on Super Bowl Sunday. From producers Jesse Collins and Roc Nation, the Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime show from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood is probably the one to beat in this race. How can any Hollywood native not vote for this iconic nostalgia-filled celebration — headlined by Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and Mary J. Blige — especially in a game won by the hometown Rams?

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According to the social-media company TikTok, its event “For You, Paige,” which was developed in collaboration with creators worldwide and inspired by the musical theater community, garnered more than 40 million views on the platform. Though last year’s entry from the social media platform, “Ratatouille: The TikTok Musical,” came up short, there may be a pathway for creator Daniel Mertzlufft, along with the global app sensation, to make headway.

When it aired on Prime Video, the American Country Music Awards went on without a hitch from Las Vegas, with the power of Dolly Parton emceeing alongside co-hosts Jimmie Allen and Gabby Barrett. The ceremony that rewarded the likes of Miranda Lambert and Carrie Underwood has popped up in this space before, and it’s still a contender.

Anything Norman Lear touches must be considered a contender. With the first “Live in Front of a Studio Audience” outings, “All in the Family” and “The Jeffersons,” winning in 2019, and “Good Times” and “All in the Family” landing noms in 2021, this edition is well within reach of another nomination.

Live from Las Vegas, the April ceremony hosted by Trevor Noah saw Jon Batiste receive the most noms with 11 and take home the most awards with five. After a pandemic postponement followed by a solid show, the Recording Academy should be able to sneak into the fray. However, its Emmy nominations are typically spotty and not always assured.

The sentimental factor and adoration for country star Naomi Judd may help the CMT “A River of Time Celebration” special sneak into the lineup.

Read moreVariety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub.

The nomination round of voting runs from June 16 to June 27. The official nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced Tuesday, July 12.

The complete television awards season calendar is linked here.

2021 category winner: “Stephen Colbert’s Election Night 2020: Democracy’s Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020” (Showtime)


ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

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Courtesy of Pepsi
AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
RANK SERIES NETWORK
1 “The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar And 50 Cent” CBS
2 “The Oscars” ABC
3 “Live in Front of a Studio Audience: The Facts of Life and Diff’rent Strokes” ABC
NEXT IN LINE
4 “Naomi Judd: A River of Time Celebration” CMT
5 “The 64th Annual Grammy Awards” CBS
6 “57th Academy of Country Music Awards” Amazon Prime Video
7 “For You, Paige” TikTok
8 “Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve 2022 With Ryan Seacrest ABC
9 “Annie Live!” NBC
10 “People’s Choice Awards” E!
UNRANKED CONTENDERS
“11th Annual NFL Honors” To be added
“2021 American Music Awards” To be added
“2021 MTV Video Music Awards” To be added
“2022 Billboard Music Awards” To be added
“2022 CMT Music Awards” To be added
“28th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards” To be added
“Billboard Women In Music 2022” To be added
“Expo 2020 Dubai Opening Ceremony” To be added
“Iheartradio Music Awards 2022” To be added
“Miley’s New Year’s Eve Party Hosted by Miley Cyrus and Pete Davidson To be added
“The 27th Annual Critics Choice Awards” The CW
“The 55th Annual CMA Awards” To be added
“Tony Awards Present: Broadway’s Back” To be added
“Travis Barker’s House of Horrors” To be added
“Verdi’s Requiem: The Met Remembers 9/11 (Great Performances) To be added


2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes - Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.

  • The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.