Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE



UPDATED: Apr. 21, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: While the category was open at the beginning of the season, SAG and the BAFTAs changed that. Yuh-Jung Youn is on track to become just the second Asian woman to win an acting prize. Olivia Colman and Amanda Seyfried do have supporters and could be closer to spoiling than most people assume. Glenn Close, on her eighth nomination, doesn’t seem to have the support for a long-overdue win but crazier things have happened, proven by her surprise loss to Colman for “The Favourite.” If she does lose once more, she’ll be tied as the most nominated actor without an Oscar win, with the late Peter O’Toole.

Will win: Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari”
Could win: Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Should win: Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari”
Should have been here: Jayme Lawson, “Farewell Amor”

Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” (A24)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar


  1. Yuh-Jung Youn
    "Minari" (A24)

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    "It’s a bbuk all you bastards!" - Yuh-Jung Youn (Soonja playing cards with David)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Soonja

    DIRECTOR: Lee Isaac Chung
    SYNOPSIS: A Korean family moves to Arkansas to start a farm in the 1980s.
    STARRING: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan S. Kim, Yuh-jung Youn, Will Patton

  2. Olivia Colman
    "The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)

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    "I'm very sorry about this." - Olivia Colman (Anne talking to Laura following Anthony's outburst)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination, 1 win (2018's "The Favourite" in best actress)
    ROLE: Anne

    DIRECTOR: Florian Zeller
    SYNOPSIS: A man refuses all assistance from his daughter as he ages. As he tries to make sense of his changing circumstances, he begins to doubt his loved ones, his own mind and even the fabric of his reality.
    STARRING: Olivia Colman, Mark Gatiss, Anthony Hopkins, Imogen Poots, Rufus Sewell, Olivia Williams

  3. Glenn Close
    "Hillbilly Elegy" (Netflix)

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    "I don’t care you hate me. I ain’t in it for popularity. You gotta take care of business, go to school, get good grades to even have a chance." - Glenn Close (Mamaw talking to J.D. in the car)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 7 nominations (most recently for 2018's "The Wife" in best actress)
    ROLE: Mamaw

    DIRECTOR: Ron Howard
    SYNOPSIS: An urgent phone call pulls a Yale Law student back to his Ohio hometown, where he reflects on three generations of family history and his own future.
    STARRING: Amy Adams, Glenn Close, Gabriel Basso, Haley Bennett, Freida Pinto, Bo Hopkins, Owen Asztalos

  4. Maria Bakalova
    "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" (Amazon Studios)

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    "This manual is full of lies! I found a new book which only tells the truth. It’s called Facebook. I learn so many facts there. Like our nation’s proudest moment - the Holocaust - never happen." - Maria Bakalova (Tutar to Borat outside the HOTEL)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Tutar Sagdiyev

    DIRECTOR: Jason Woliner
    SYNOPSIS: A satire on Trump’s America that follows a Kazakh journalist who’s sent to America to deliver a gift from his government to Vice President Mike Pence. Along the way, his worldview is turned upside down and steadfast beliefs are challenged by his teenage daughter.
    STARRING: Sacha Baron Cohen, Maria Bakalova

  5. Amanda Seyfried
    "Mank" (Netflix)

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    "I'm being burned at the stake and I am dying for a ciggie-boo..Ha! There - God's punishing you. Watch those stairs, they're treacherous." - Amanda Seyfried (Marion talking to Mank on top of the FUNERAL PYRE)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Marion Davies

    DIRECTOR: David Fincher
    SYNOPSIS: 1930s Hollywood is re-evaluated through the eyes of scathing social critic and alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he races to finish the screenplay of Citizen Kane for Orson Welles.
    STARRING: Tom Burke, Lily Collins, Joseph Cross, Charles Dance, Monika Gossman, Ferdinand Kingsley, Jamie McShane, Tuppence Middleton, Toby Leonard Moore, Gary Oldman, Tom Pelphrey, Amanda Seyfried, Sam Troughton

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in the lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Supporting Actress)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Only two women have won this category, Dianne Wiest and Shelly Winters. Thelma Ritter has the most nominations at six, while Amy Adams is second with five. The oldest winner ever is Peggy Ashcroft (“A Passage to India”) at 77, while the oldest nominee is Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”) at 87. Tatum O’Neal (“Paper Moon”) is both the youngest nominee and winner in history at 10.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.

About the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.

  • The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.

About the SAG Awards

The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”

  • The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021