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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE

2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE

UPDATED: Nov. 19, 2020 (PRE-SEASON)

Focus Features has began additional screenings of Emerald Fennell’s “Promising Young Woman,” while “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “The White Tiger” were seen by a pocket of critics and journalists, and the word on “Ma Rainey” was boost for Netflix. Variety was one of the first to weigh in on the awards chances for the musical adaptation of “The Prom” and it could be the feel-good film of the holidays. I’d imagine many voters’ children will be playing it on repeat over the holiday recess. Netflix also set a date for Sam Levinson’s “Malcolm & Marie” for February, adding one more title to juggle.

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories


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Netflix’s “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” with Chadwick Boseman Courtesy of Netflix

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures)
    Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

  2. "Mank" (Netflix)
    David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

  3. "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)
    Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

  4. "Minari" (A24)
    Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

  5. "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)
    Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

  6. "The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

  7. "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)
    Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

  8. "Promising Young Woman" (Focus Features)
    Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Josey McNamara, Ashley Fox (producers)

  9. "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.)†
    Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)

  10. "The Prom" (Netflix)
    Adam Anders, Dori Berinstein, Chad Beguelin, Bill Damaschke, Bob Martin, Ryan Murphy, Scott Robertson, Matthew Sklar, Alexis Martin Woodall (producers)

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Universal Pictures’ “News of the World” with Tom Hanks and Helena Zengel Photo courtesy of Universal Pictures

NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:

  1. "The Mauritanian" (STX Films)
    Adam Ackland, Leah Clarke, Benedict Cumberbatch, Lloyd Levin, Beatriz Levin, Mark Holder, Christine Holder, Branwen Prestwood Smith, Michael Bronner (producers)

  2. "News of the World" (Universal Pictures)
    Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Gail Mutrux (producers)

  3. "Da 5 Bloods" (Netflix)
    Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)

  4. "The Midnight Sky" (Netflix)
    George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Bard Dorros, Keith Redmon, Cliff Roberts (producers)

  5. "On the Rocks" (A24/Apple Plus)
    Sofia Coppola, Youree Henley (producers)

  6. "Soul" (Pixar)
    Dana Murray (producer)

  7. "Tenet" (Warner Bros.)
    Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas (producers)

  8. "First Cow" (A24)
    Neil Kopp, Vincent Savino, Anish Savjani (producers)

  9. "Palm Springs" (Hulu/Neon)
    Chris Parker, Andy Samberg, Akiva Schaffer, Dylan Sellers, Becky Sloviter, Jorma Taccone (producers)

  10. "The United States vs. Billie Holiday" (Paramount Pictures)
    Lee Daniels, Jordan Fudge, Tucker Tooley, Joe Roth, Jeff Kirschenbaum, Pamela Oas Williams (producers)

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Warner Bros. “Wonder Woman 1984” with Gal Gadot Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures

TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. "Pieces of a Woman" (Netflix)
    Ashley Levinson, Aaron Ryder, Kevin Turen (producers)

  2. "Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)
    Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche, Bill Benz, Cathy Benz (producers)

  3. "Ammonite" (Neon)
    Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly (producers)

  4. "Supernova" (Bleecker Street)
    Tristan Goligher, Emily Morgan (producers)

  5. "Wonder Woman 1984" (HBO Max/Warner Bros.)
    Gal Gadot, Patty Jenkins, Stephen Jones, Charles Roven, Deborah Snyder, Zach Snyder (producers)

  6. "The Personal History of David Copperfield" (Searchlight Pictures)
    Armando Iannucci, Kevin Loader (producers)

  7. "The Life Ahead" (Netflix)
    Carlo Degli Esposti, Regina K. Scully, Nicola Serra, Lynda Weinman (producer)

  8. "The Invisible Man" (Universal Pictures)
    Jason Blum, Kylie du Fresne (producers)

  9. "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" (Amazon Studios)
    Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Monica Levinson (producers)

  10. "The White Tiger" (Netflix)
    Ramin Bahrani, Mukul Deora (producers)

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    Netflix’s “Malcolm and Marie” with John David Washington and Zendaya Photo courtesy of Netflix

ALSO IN CONTENTION:

  1. "Malcolm & Marie" (Netflix)
    Ashley Levinson, Sam Levinson, Kevin Turen (producers)

  2. "Cherry" (Apple TV Plus)
    Jake Aust, Chris Castaldi, Jonathan Gray, Mike Larocca, Matthew Rhodes, Anthony Russo, Joe Russo (producers)

  3. "French Exit" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Christine Haebler, Christina Piovesan, Noah Segal, Trish Dolman, Katie Holly, Olivier Glaas (producers)

  4. "Miss Juneteenth" (Vertical Entertainment)
    Toby Halbrooks, Tim Headington, Jeanie Igoe, James M. Johnston, Theresa Page, Neil Creque Williams (producers)

  5. "Never Rarely Sometimes Always" (Focus Features)
    Adele Romanski, Sara Murphy (producers)

  6. "I'm Thinking of Ending Things" (Netflix)
    Anthony Bregman, Charlie Kaufman, Robert Salerno, Stephanie Azpiazu (producers)

  7. "The Outpost" (Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment)
    Paul Michael Merryman, Paul Tamasy, Marc Frydman, Jeffrey Greenstein, Jonathan Yunger, Les Weldon (producers)

  8. "Emma." (Focus Features)
    Tim Bevan, Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Eric Fellner (producer)

  9. "Mulan" (Disney Plus)
    Chris Bender, Jake Weiner, Jason T. Reed (producers)

  10. "I Carry You with Me" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Heidi Ewing, Mynette Louie, Gabriela Maire, Edher Campos (producer)

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Sia’s “Music” starring Kate Hudson and Maddie Zegler Courtesy of Merrick Morton/Hanway Films

MORE AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. "Herself" (Amazon Studios)
    Rory Gilmartin, Ed Guiney, Sharon Horgan (producers)

  2. "The World to Come" (Bleecker Street)
    Casey Affleck, Margarethe Baillou, David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Whitaker Lader (producers)

  3. "Nine Days" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Jason Michael Berman, Mette-Marie Kongsved, Matthew Linder, Laura Tunstall, Datari Turner (producers)

  4. "Wolfwalkers" (Apple TV Plus/GKIDS)
    Tomm Moore, Stéphan Roelants, Nora Twomey, Paul Young (producer)

  5. "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" (20th Century Studios)
    Arnon Milchan, Mark Herbert, Peter Carlton (producers)

  6. "I'm Your Woman" (Amazon Studios)
    Rachel Brosnahan, Jordan Horowitz (producers)

  7. "The Assistant" (Bleecker Street)
    Kitty Green, James Schamus, Scott Macaulay, P. Jennifer Dana, Ross Jacobson (producers)

  8. "The Nest" (IFC Films)
    Rose Garnett, Ed Guiney, Amy Jackson, Andrew Lowe, Christina Piovesan, Derrin Schlesinger (producers)

  9. "The King of Staten Island" (Universal Pictures)
    Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel (producers)

  10. "Music" (HanWay Films)
    Vincent Landay, Sia (producers)

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Pixar’s “Onward” Pixar

UNRANKED AWARDS CONTENDERS:

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)