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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE

2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE

UPDATED: Oct. 22, 2020 (PRE-SEASON)

Minari” won the audience prize at the Middleburg Film Festival and a source shares that the film will be released this calendar year in time for NYFCC and LAFCA awards, who are still holding onto the 2020 timeline, and not the extended one announced by the Oscars.

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories


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Netflix

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures)
    Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

  2. "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)
    Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

  3. "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)
    Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

  4. "Mank" (Netflix)
    David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

  5. "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)
    Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

  6. "Minari" (A24)†
    Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

  7. "The Father"  (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

  8. "News of the World" (Universal Pictures)
    Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Gail Mutrux (producers)

  9. "On the Rocks" (A24/Apple Plus)
    Sofia Coppola, Youree Henley (producers)

  10. "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.)†
    Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)

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MELINDA SUE GORDON/NETFLIX

NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:

  1. "Da 5 Bloods" (Netflix)
    Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)

  2. "Soul" (Pixar)
    Dana Murray (producer)

  3. "Respect" (United Artists Releasing)
    Scott Bernstein, Harvey Mason Jr. (producers)

  4. "Promising Young Woman" (Focus Features)
    Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Josey McNamara, Ashley Fox (producers)

  5. "Supernova" (Bleecker Street)
    Tristan Goligher, Emily Morgan (producers)

  6. "Palm Springs" (Hulu/Neon)
    Chris Parker, Andy Samberg, Akiva Schaffer, Dylan Sellers, Becky Sloviter, Jorma Taccone (producers)

  7. "The United States vs. Billie Holiday" (Paramount Pictures)
    Lee Daniels, Jordan Fudge, Tucker Tooley, Joe Roth, Jeff Kirschenbaum, Pamela Oas Williams (producers)

  8. "Cherry" (Apple TV Plus)†
    Jake Aust, Chris Castaldi, Jonathan Gray, Mike Larocca, Matthew Rhodes, Anthony Russo, Joe Russo (producers)

  9. "Ammonite" (Neon)
    Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly (producers)

  10. "The Prom" (Netflix)
    Adam Anders, Dori Berinstein, Chad Beguelin, Bill Damaschke, Bob Martin, Ryan Murphy, Scott Robertson, Matthew Sklar, Alexis Martin Woodall (producers)

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Courtesy of Warner Bros. Picture

TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. "Tenet" (Warner Bros.)
    Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas (producers)

  2. "The Personal History of David Copperfield" (Searchlight Pictures)
    Armando Iannucci, Kevin Loader (producers)

  3. "First Cow" (A24)
    Neil Kopp, Vincent Savino, Anish Savjani (producers)

  4. "The Midnight Sky" (Netflix)†
    George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Bard Dorros, Keith Redmon, Cliff Roberts (producers)

  5. "Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)
    Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche, Bill Benz, Cathy Benz (producers)

  6. "The White Tiger" (Netflix)†
    Ramin Bahrani, Mukul Deora (producers)

  7. "The Outpost" (Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment)
    Paul Michael Merryman, Paul Tamasy, Marc Frydman, Jeffrey Greenstein, Jonathan Yunger, Les Weldon (producers)

  8. "French Exit" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Christine Haebler, Christina Piovesan, Noah Segal, Trish Dolman, Katie Holly, Olivier Glaas (producers)

  9. "Pieces of a Woman" (Netflix)†
    Ashley Levinson, Aaron Ryder, Kevin Turen (producers)

  10. "Wild Mountain Thyme" (Bleecker Street)
    Anthony Bregman, Martina Niland, Leslie Urdang, Alex Witchel (producers)

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Courtesy of Sundance Institute

ALSO IN CONTENTION:

  1. "Over the Moon" (Netflix)
    Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim (producers)

  2. "Miss Juneteenth" (Vertical Entertainment)
    Toby Halbrooks, Tim Headington, Jeanie Igoe, James M. Johnston, Theresa Page, Neil Creque Williams (producers)

  3. "I'm Thinking of Ending Things" (Netflix)
    Anthony Bregman, Charlie Kaufman, Robert Salerno, Stephanie Azpiazu (producers)

  4. "The World to Come" (Bleecker Street)†
    Casey Affleck, Margarethe Baillou, David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Whitaker Lader (producers)

  5. "Never Rarely Sometimes Always" (Focus Features)
    Adele Romanski, Sara Murphy (producers)

  6. "Nine Days" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Jason Michael Berman, Mette-Marie Kongsved, Matthew Linder, Laura Tunstall, Datari Turner (producers)

  7. "Mulan" (Disney Plus)
    Chris Bender, Jake Weiner, Jason T. Reed (producers)

  8. "The Invisible Man" (Universal Pictures)
    Jason Blum, Kylie du Fresne (producers)

  9. "I Carry You with Me" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Heidi Ewing, Mynette Louie, Gabriela Maire, Edher Campos (producer)

  10. "Herself" (Amazon Studios)†
    Rory Gilmartin, Ed Guiney, Sharon Horgan (producers)

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Quantrell D. Colbert

MORE AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" (20th Century Studios)
    Arnon Milchan, Mark Herbert, Peter Carlton (producers)

  2. "I'm Your Woman" (Amazon Studios)
    Rachel Brosnahan, Jordan Horowitz (producers)

  3. "The Assistant" (Bleecker Street)
    Kitty Green, James Schamus, Scott Macaulay, P. Jennifer Dana, Ross Jacobson (producers)

  4. "The Nest" (IFC Films)
    Rose Garnett, Ed Guiney, Amy Jackson, Andrew Lowe, Christina Piovesan, Derrin Schlesinger (producers)

  5. "The King of Staten Island" (Universal Pictures)
    Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel (producers)

  6. "Hillbilly Elegy" (Netflix)
    Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Erica Huggins, Karen Lunder (producers)

  7. "Greyhound" (Apple TV Plus)
    Gary Goetzman (producer)

  8. "Onward" (Pixar)
    Kori Rae (producer)

  9. "Death on the Nile" (20th Century Studios)
    Kenneth Branagh, Judy Hofflund, Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Mark Gordon, Kevin J. Walshers (producer)

  10. "Good Joe Bell" (Solstice Studios)
    Riva Marker, Daniela Taplin Lundberg, Eva Maria Daniels, Cary Joji Fukunaga, Ryan Ahrens, Mark Wahlberg, Stephen Levinson (producers)

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Courtesy of Amazon Studios

UNRANKED AWARDS CONTENDERS:

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)