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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE.

2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

UPDATED: Oct. 15, 2020 (PRE-SEASON)

Newcomers Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”) and Eliza Hittman (“Never Rarely Sometimes Always”) are going to be well-supported by Focus Features and could make headway in a race that seems more open than others. Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, who won the Oscar in adapted screenplay for 2005’s “Brokeback Mountain” are hoping name recognition can bring them far with distributor Solstice Studios and “Good Joe Bell.”

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories


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Photo courtesy of A24

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)
    Aaron Sorkin

  2. "Minari" (A24)†
    Lee Isaac Chung

  3. "Mank" (Netflix)†
    Jack Fincher

  4. "Soul" (Pixar)
    Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers

  5. "Promising Young Woman" (Focus Features)†
    Emerald Fennell

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Apple TV +

NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:

  1. "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.)†
    Will Berson and Shaka King (screenplay), Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas (story by)

  2. "On the Rocks" (A24/Apple TV Plus)
    Sofia Coppola

  3. "Never Rarely Sometimes Always" (Focus Features)
    Eliza Hittman

  4. "Da 5 Bloods" (Netflix)
    Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

  5. "Palm Springs" (Hulu/Neon)
    Andy Siara

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Courtesy of Warner Bros. Picture

TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. "Ammonite" (Neon)
    Francis Lee

  2. "Miss Juneteenth" (Vertical Entertainment)
    Channing Godfrey Peoples

  3. "Respect" (United Artists Releasing)
    Tracey Scott Wilson (screenplay and story by), Callie Khouri (story by)

  4. "I'm Your Woman" (Amazon Studios)†
    Julia Hart, Jordan Horowitz

  5. "Tenet" (Warner Bros.)
    Christopher Nolan

  6. "Palm Springs" (Hulu/Neon)
    Andy Siara

  7. "Herself" (Amazon Studios)†
    Malcolm Campbell, Clare Dunne

  8. "Pieces of a Woman" (Netflix)†
    Kata Wéber

  9. "Over the Moon" (Netflix)
    Jennifer Yee McDevitt, Audrey Wells

  10. "The Invisible Man" (Universal Pictures)
    Leigh Whannell

  11. "Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)
    Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)

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Photo courtesy of Netflix

ALSO IN CONTENTION:

  1. "The Assistant" (Bleecker Street)
    Kitty Green

  2. "The Forty-Year-Old Version" (Netflix)
    Radha Blank

  3. "The Climb" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Michael Angelo Covino, Kyle Marvin

  4. "The World to Come" (Bleecker Street)†
    Ron Hansen (screenplay by), Jim Shepard (screenplay and written by)

  5. "The King of Staten Island" (Universal Pictures)
    Judd Apatow

  6. "Wander Darkly" (Lionsgate)†
    Tara Miele

  7. "Onward" (Pixar)
    Dan Scanlon, Jason Headley, Keith Bunin (screenplay and original story by)

  8. "Babyteeth" (IFC Films)
    Rita Kalnejais

  9. "Connected" (Sony Pictures)†
    Michael Rianda, Jeff Rowe

  10. "Wolfwalkers" (Apple TV Plus)
    Jericca Cleland, Will Collins, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart\

Nine Days

MORE AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. "Nine Days" (Sony Pictures Classics)†
    Edson Oda

  2. "Ordinary Love" (Bleecker Street)
    Owen McCafferty

  3. "Kajillionaire" (Focus Features)
    Miranda July

  4. "Sorry We Missed You" (IFC Films)
    Paul Laverty

  5. "She Dies Tomorrow" (Neon)
    Amy Seimetz

  6. "Bad Hair" (Hulu)
    Justin Simien

  7. "Military Wives" (Lionsgate)
    Rosanne Flynn, Rachel Tunnard

  8. "Happiest Season" (Sony Pictures)
    Clea DuVall, Mary Holland

  9. "The Way Back" (Warner Bros.)
    Brad Ingelsby

  10. "The Nest" (IFC Films)
    Sean Durkin

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Photo courtesy of Shout! Factory

UNRANKED AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  • "All my Life" (Universal Pictures) – Todd Rosenberg
  • "Concrete Cowboy" (No U.S. Distribution) – Ricky Staub, Dan Walser†
  • "Free Guy" (20th Century Studios) – Matt Lieberman, Zak Penn†
  • "The Gentleman" (STX Entertainment) – Guy Ritchie (screenplay and story by), Ivan Atkinson and Marn Davies (story by)
  • "Good Joe Bell" (Solstice Studios) – Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana†
  • "Let Them All Talk" (HBO Max) – Deborah Eisenberg†
  • "Standing Up, Falling Down" (Shout! Factory) – Peter Hoare
  • "Swallow" (IFC Films) – Carlo Mirabella-Davis
  • "Voyagers" (Lionsgate) – Neil Burger
  • "The Wretched" (IFC Midnight) – The Pierce Brothers

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)