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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, drunning all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE.

2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

UPDATED: Nov. 19, 2020 (PRE-SEASON)

So many play adaptations in the mix with “The Father,” “One Night in Miami,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “Pieces of a Woman.” Perhaps too many? Which one or two will keep the branch’s attention? Kelly Reichardt is looking strong at the moment for her first nomination but with such a long season ahead, will her goodwill from the first half of the year sustain? “Pieces of a Woman” is based on a play of the same name, that was written by Kata Weber and this could be something that starts to climb the charts as more people discover its power.

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories


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Leslie Odom Jr. in “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios) Patti Perret

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures)
    Chloé Zhao (based on the book "Nomadland" by Jessica Bruder)

  2. "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)
    Kemp Powers (based on the play "One Night in Miami..." by Kemp Powers)

  3. "The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play "Le Père" by Florian Zeller)

  4. "First Cow" (A24)
    Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel "The Half Life" by Jonathan Raymond)

  5. "The Mauritanian" (STX Entertainment)
    M.B. Traven, Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani (based on the novel "Guantanamo Diary" by Mohamedou Ould Salahi)

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PIECES OF A WOMAN: (L to R) Vanessa Kirby as Martha, Ellen Burstyn as Elizabeth Netflix

NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:

  1. "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)
    Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" by August Wilson)

  2. "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" (Amazon Studios)
    Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer (based on Borat Sagdiyev by Sacha Baron Cohen)

  3. "The Life Ahead" (Netflix)
    Edoardo Ponti (based on the novel by Romain Gary)

  4. "The Midnight Sky" (Netflix)
    Mark L. Smith (based on the novel "Good Morning, Midnight" by Lily Brooks-Dalton)

  5. "Pieces of a Woman" (Netflix)
    Kata Wéber (based on the play "Pieces of a Woman")

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WHITE TIGER, ​Adarsh Gourav ​as ​Balram​, ​Priyanka Chopra ​as ​Pinky Madam ​in WHITE TIGER​. Cr. ​SINGH TEJINDER​/NETFLIX ​© ​2020 SINGH TEJINDER/NETFLIX

TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. "News of the World" (Universal Pictures)
    Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass (based on the novel "News of the World" by Paulette Jiles)

  2. "I'm Thinking of Ending Things" (Netflix)
    Charlie Kaufman (based on the novel "I'm Thinking of Ending Things" by Iain Reid)

  3. "The White Tiger" (Netflix)
    Ramin Bahrani (based on the novel "The White Tiger" by Aravind Adiga)

  4. "Emma." (Focus Features)
    Eleanor Catton (based on the book "Emma" by Jane Austen)

  5. "The Personal History of David Copperfield" (Searchlight Pictures)
    Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci (based on "David Copperfield" by Charles Dickens)

  6. "French Exit" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Patrick deWitt (based on the novel "French Exit" by Patrick deWitt)

  7. "Shirley" (Neon)
    Sarah Gibbons (based on the novel "Shirley" by Susan Scarf Merrell)

  8. "The Prom" (Netflix)
    Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin (based on the musical "The Prom" by Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin and Matthew Sklar)

  9. "The United States vs. Billie Holiday" (Paramount Pictures)
    Suzan-Lori Parks (based on "Chasing the Scream: The First and Last Days of the War on Drugs" by Johann Hari)

  10. "Radioactive" (Amazon Studios)
    Jack Thorne (based on the novel "Radioactive: Marie & Pierre Curie: A Tale of Love and Fallout" by Lauren Redniss)

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Chris Pine and Gal Gadot in “Wonder Woman 1984” Clay Enos/DC Comics

ALSO IN CONTENTION:

  1. "The Outpost" (Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment)
    Eric Johnson, Paul Tamasy (based on the book "The Outpost: An Untold Story of American Valor" by Jake Tapper)

  2. "Cherry" (Apple TV Plus)†
    Angela Otstot, Jessica Goldberg (based on "Cherry" by Nico Walker)

  3. "Wonder Woman 1984" (HBO Max/Warner Bros)
    Geoff Johns, Patty Jenkins, Dave Callaham (based on "Wonder Woman" by William Moulton Marston)

  4. "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" (20th Century Studios)
    Tom MacRae, Dan Gillespie Sells (based on the musical "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" by Tom MacRae and Dan Gillespie Sells)

  5. "Mulan" (Walt Disney Pictures)
    Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Lauren Hynek, Elizabeth Martin (based on Disney's "Mulan" by Tony Bancroft)

  6. "Martin Eden" (Kino Lorber)
    Mauricio Braucci (based on the novel "Martin Eden" by Jack London)

  7. "How to Build a Girl" (IFC Films)
    Caitlin Moran (based on the novel "How to Build a Girl" by Caitlin Moran)

  8. "Unpregnant" (HBO Max)
    Rachel Lee Goldenberg, Ted Caplan, Jenni Hendriks, Jennifer Kaytin Robinson, William Parker (based on the novel "Unpregnant by Ted Caplan and Jenni Hendricks)

  9. "The Glorias" (Roadside Attractions)
    Sarah Ruhl, Julie Taymor (based on the book "My Life on the Road" by Gloria Steinheim)

  10. "Hope Gap" (Screen Media Films)
    William Nicholson (based on the book "The Retreat of Moscow" by William Nicholson)

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HILLBILLY ELEGY: (L to R) Haley Bennett (“Lindsay”), Glenn Close (“Mamaw”),Owen Asztalos (“Young J.D. Vance”). Photo Cr. Lacey Terrell/NETFLIX © 2020 Lacey Terrell/NETFLIX

MORE AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. "Little Fish" (IFC Films)
    Mattson Tomlin (based on the short story by Aja Gabel)

  2. "Greyhound" (Apple TV Plus)
    Tom Hanks (based on the book "The Good Shepherd" by C.S. Forester)

  3. "Blithe Spirit" (Sony Pictures Releasing)
    Piers Ashworth, Meg Leonard, Nick Moorcroft (based on the play by Noel Coward)

  4. "Hillbilly Elegy" (Netflix)
    Vanessa Taylor (based on the novel "Hillbilly Elegy" by J.D. Vance)

  5. "Antlers" (Searchlight Pictures)
    C. Henry Chaisson, Nick Antosca, Scott Cooper (based on the short story "The Quiet Boy" by Nick Antosca)

  6. "Wild Mountain Thyme" (Bleecker Street)
    John Patrick Shanley (based on the play "Outside Mullingar" by John Patrick Shanley)

  7. "Lost Girls" (Netflix)
    Michael Werwie (based on the book "Lost Girls: An Unsolved American Mystery" by Robert Kolker)

  8. "Wendy" (Searchlight Pictures)
    Benh Zeitlin, Eliza Zeitlin (based on the book "Peter Pan" by J.M. Barrie)

  9. "Let Him Go" (Focus Features)
    Thomas Bezucha (based on the novel "Let Him Go" by Larry Watson)

  10. "Bad Boys for Life" (Sony Pictures)
    Chris Bremner, Peter Craig, Joe Carnahan (based on characters by George Gallo)

  11. "Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)" (Warner Bros.)
    Christina Hodson (based on characters created by DC Comics)

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Emily Blunt and Jamie Dornan in “Wild Mountain Thyme” Photo courtesy of Bleecker Street

UNRANKED AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  • "The Call of the Wild" (20th Century Studios) – Michael Green (based on the book “The Call of the Wild” by Jack Landon)
  • "Earwig and the Witch" (Studio Ghibli) – TBA (based on the book “Earwig and the Witch” by Diana Wynne Jones)
  • "The King's Man" (20th Century Studios) – Karl Gajdusek, Matthew Vaughn (based on the comic book “The Secret Service” by Mark Millar and Dave Gibbons)
  • "Rebecca" (Netflix) – Jane Goldman, Joe Shrapnel, Anna Waterhouse (based on the book “Rebecca” by Daphne du Maurier)
  • "The True History of the Kelly Gang" (IFC Films) – Shaun Grant (based on the book “True History of the Kelly Gang” by Peter Carey)
  • "Wild Mountain Thyme" (Bleecker Street) – John Patrick Shanley (based on the play “Outside Mullingar” by John Patrick Shanley)

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)