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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE.

2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

UPDATED: Oct. 22, 2020 (PRE-SEASON)

If Kemp Powers manages a nomination in best adapted screenplay, and makes the cut in original screenplay for “Soul,” he would be the first double screenplay nominee over two categories since Francis Ford Coppola for “The Conversation” and “The Godfather Part II.”.

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories


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Photo courtesy of Amazon Studios

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures)
    Chloé Zhao (based on the book "Nomadland" by Jessica Bruder)

  2. "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)
    Kemp Powers (based on the play "One Night in Miami..." by Kemp Powers)

  3. "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)
    Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" by August Wilson)

  4. "The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play "Le Père" by Florian Zeller)

  5. "First Cow" (A24)
    Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel "The Half Life" by Jonathan Raymond)

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Courtesy of Tobias Datumas/Sony Pictures Classics

NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:

  1. "News of the World" (Universal Pictures)
    Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass (based on the novel "News of the World" by Paulette Jiles)

  2. "The Personal History of David Copperfield" (Searchlight Pictures)
    Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci (based on "David Copperfield" by Charles Dickens)

  3. "I'm Thinking of Ending Things" (Netflix)
    Charlie Kaufman (based on the novel "I'm Thinking of Ending Things" by Iain Reid)

  4. "French Exit" (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Patrick deWitt (based on the novel "French Exit" by Patrick deWitt)

  5. "Cherry" (Apple TV Plus)†
    Angela Otstot, Jessica Goldberg (based on "Cherry" by Nico Walker)

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Photo courtesy of Paramount Pictures

TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. "The White Tiger" (Netflix)†
    Ramin Bahrani (based on the novel "The White Tiger" by Aravind Adiga)

  2. "Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan" (Amazon Studios)
    Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer (based on Borat Sagdiyev by Sacha Baron Cohen)

  3. "The Midnight Sky" (Netflix)†
    Mark L. Smith (based on the novel "Good Morning, Midnight" by Lily Brooks-Dalton)

  4. "The United States vs. Billie Holiday" (Paramount Pictures)
    Suzan-Lori Parks (based on "Chasing the Scream: The First and Last Days of the War on Drugs" by Johann Hari)

  5. "The Life Ahead" (Netflix)
    Edoardo Ponti (based on the novel by Romain Gary)

  6. "The Prom" (Netflix)
    Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin (based on the musical "The Prom" by Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin and Matthew Sklar)

  7. "Shirley" (Neon)
    Sarah Gibbons (based on the novel "Shirley" by Susan Scarf Merrell)

  8. "Emma." (Focus Features)
    Eleanor Catton (based on the book "Emma" by Jane Austen)

  9. "Wild Mountain Thyme" (Bleecker Street)
    John Patrick Shanley (based on the play "Outside Mullingar" by John Patrick Shanley)

  10. "Radioactive" (Amazon Studios)
    Jack Thorne (based on the novel "Radioactive: Marie & Pierre Curie: A Tale of Love and Fallout" by Lauren Redniss)

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Lacey Terrell/NETFLIX

ALSO IN CONTENTION:

  1. "The Outpost" (Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment)
    Eric Johnson, Paul Tamasy (based on the book "The Outpost: An Untold Story of American Valor" by Jake Tapper)

  2. "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" (20th Century Studios)
    Tom MacRae, Dan Gillespie Sells (based on the musical "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" by Tom MacRae and Dan Gillespie Sells)

  3. "Mulan" (Walt Disney Pictures)
    Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Lauren Hynek, Elizabeth Martin (based on Disney's "Mulan" by Tony Bancroft)

  4. "Hillbilly Elegy" (Netflix)
    Vanessa Taylor (based on the novel "Hillbilly Elegy" by J.D. Vance)

  5. "Greyhound" (Apple TV Plus)
    Tom Hanks (based on the book "The Good Shepherd" by C.S. Forester)

  6. "Martin Eden" (Kino Lorber)
    Mauricio Braucci (based on the novel "Martin Eden" by Jack London)

  7. "Death on the Nile" (20th Century Studios)
    Michael Green (based on the novel "Death on the Nile" by Agatha Christie)

  8. "How to Build a Girl" (IFC Films)
    Caitlin Moran (based on the novel "How to Build a Girl" by Caitlin Moran)

  9. "The Glorias" (Roadside Attractions)
    Sarah Ruhl, Julie Taymor (based on the book "My Life on the Road" by Gloria Steinheim)

  10. "Coming 2 America" (Amazon Studios)
    Kenya Barris (based on the characters by Eddie Murphy)

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Photo courtesy of Searchlight Pictures

MORE AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. "Antlers" (Searchlight Pictures)
    C. Henry Chaisson, Nick Antosca, Scott Cooper (based on the short story "The Quiet Boy" by Nick Antosca)

  2. "Lost Girls" (Netflix)
    Michael Werwie (based on the book "Lost Girls: An Unsolved American Mystery" by Robert Kolker)

  3. "Wendy" (Searchlight Pictures)
    Benh Zeitlin, Eliza Zeitlin (based on the book "Peter Pan" by J.M. Barrie)

  4. "Little Fish" (IFC Films)
    Mattson Tomlin (based on the short story by Aja Gabel)

  5. "Hope Gap" (Screen Media Films)
    William Nicholson (based on the book "The Retreat of Moscow" by William Nicholson)

  6. "Let Him Go" (Focus Features)
    Thomas Bezucha (based on the novel "Let Him Go" by Larry Watson)

  7. "Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)" (Warner Bros.)
    Christina Hodson (based on characters created by DC Comics)

  8. "Bad Boys for Life" (Sony Pictures)
    Chris Bremner, Peter Craig, Joe Carnahan (based on characters by George Gallo)

  9. "The King's Man" (20th Century Studios)
    Karl Gajdusek, Matthew Vaughn (based on the comic book "The Secret Service" by Mark Millar and Dave Gibbons)

  10. "The Call of the Wild" (Walt Disney Pictures)
    Michael Green (based on the book "The Call of the Wild" by Jack Landon)

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Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures

UNRANKED AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  • "Blithe Spirit" (IFC Films) – Piers Ashworth, Meg Leonard, Nick Moorcroft (based on the play by Noel Coward)
  • "Cinderella" (Sony Pictures) – Kay Cannon, James Corden (inspired by the book “Cinderella” by Charles Perrault)
  • "Passing" (No U.S. Distribution) – Rebecca Hall (based on the novel “Passing” by Nella Larsen)†
  • "The True History of the Kelly Gang" (IFC Films) – Shaun Grant (based on the book “True History of the Kelly Gang” by Peter Carey)
  • "Wonder Woman 1984" (Warner Bros.) – Patty Jenkins, Geoff Johns, David Callaham (based on the comic “Wonder Woman” by William Moulton Marston)

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)