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Oscars Predictions: Best Actress – Who Will Be the ‘Critical Darling’ This Awards Season?

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DOMINIC MILLER/NETFLIX © 2021

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE

DRAFT>>>PRE SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON

2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTRESS

UPDATED: Dec. 17, 2020

AWARDS COMMENTARY:
There are never any sure things for the Oscars. No woman or their campaigns should feel “comfortable” or “safe” in this category. Looking at past races where surprise exclusions like Amy Adams (“Arrival”) and Annette Bening (“20th Century Women”) have occurred, you start to look for clues. In the meantime, we await to see which direction the critics will steer the race. Carey Mulligan has the love from critics to be the “darling” of the season while Andra Day awaits her moment to assert herself as a formidable contender.

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AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. Vanessa Kirby
    "Pieces of a Woman" (Netflix)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Martha
    –
    DIRECTOR: Kornél Mundruczó
    SYNOPSIS: When a young mother's home birth ends in unfathomable tragedy, she begins a year-long odyssey of mourning that fractures relationships with loved ones in this deeply personal story of a woman learning to live alongside her loss.
    STARRING: Vanessa Kirby, Shia LaBeouf, Ellen Burstyn, Iliza Shlesinger, Benny Safdie, Sarah Snook, Molly Parker

  2. Frances McDormand
    "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: 5 nominations, 2 wins (1996's "Fargo" and 2018's "Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri")
    ROLE: Fern
    –
    DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao
    SYNOPSIS: After losing everything in the Great Recession, an old woman embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad.
    STARRING: Frances McDormand, David Strathairn, Linda May, Swankie, Bob Wells

  3. Andra Day
    "The United States vs. Billie Holiday" (Paramount Pictures)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Billie Holiday
    –
    DIRECTOR: Lee Daniels
    SYNOPSIS: Follows Holiday during her career as she is targeted by the Federal Department of Narcotics with an undercover sting operation led by black Federal Agent Jimmy Fletcher, with whom she had a tumultuous affair.
    STARRING: Andra Day, Trevante Rhodes, Natasha Lyonne, Garrett Hedlund, Rob Morgan, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Tyler James Williams

  4. Carey Mulligan
    "Promising Young Woman" (Focus Features)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination
    ROLE: Cassandra "Cassie" Thomas
    –
    DIRECTOR: Emerald Fennell
    SYNOPSIS: A young woman, traumatized by a tragic event in her past, seeks out vengeance against those who cross her path.
    STARRING:Carey Mulligan, Bo Burnham, Laverne Cox, Molly Shannon, Clancy Brown, Jennifer Coolidge, Max Greenfield, Alison Brie, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Connie Britton, Chris Lowell, Adam Brody, Sam Richardson

  5. Viola Davis
    "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: 3 nominations, 1 win (2016's "Fences")
    ROLE: Ma Rainey
    –
    DIRECTOR: George C. Wolfe
    SYNOPSIS: Chicago, 1927. A recording session. Tensions rise between Ma Rainey, her ambitious horn player and the white management determined to control the uncontrollable "Mother of the Blues". Based on Pulitzer Prize winner August Wilson's play..
    STARRING: Chadwick Boseman, Dusan Brown, Jonny Coyne, Viola Davis, Colman Domingo, Taylour Paige, Michael Potts, Jeremy Shamos, Glynn Turman

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Courtesy of Melinda Sue Gordon/Netflix

NEXT IN LINE:

  1. Meryl Streep
    "The Prom" (Netflix)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: 21 nominations, 3 wins (1979's "Kramer vs. Kramer," 1982's "Sophie's Choice" and 2011's "The Iron Lady")
    ROLE: Dee Dee Allen
    –
    DIRECTOR: Ryan Murphy
    SYNOPSIS: A troupe of hilariously self-obsessed theater stars swarm into a small conservative Indiana town in support of a high school girl who wants to take her girlfriend to the prom.
    STARRING: Meryl Streep, Jo Ellen Pellman, James Corden, Nicole Kidman, Ariana DeBose, Kerry Washington, Keegan-Michael Key, Andrew Rannells. Tracey Ullman

  2. Michelle Pfeiffer
    "French Exit" (Sony Pictures Classics)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: 3 nominations
    ROLE: Frances Price
    –
    DIRECTOR: Azazel Jacobs
    SYNOPSIS: An aging Manhattan socialite living on what's barely left of her inheritance moves to a small apartment in Paris with her son and cat.
    STARRING: Michelle Pfeiffer, Lucas Hedges, Tracy Letts, Valerie Mahaffey, Susan Coyne, Imogen Poots, Danielle Macdonald, Daniel di Tomasso

  3. Kate Winslet
    "Ammonite" (Neon)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: 7 nominations, 1 win (2008's "The Reader")
    ROLE: Mary Anning
    –
    DIRECTOR: Francis Lee
    SYNOPSIS    : 1840s England, acclaimed but overlooked fossil hunter Mary Anning and a young woman sent to convalesce by the sea develop an intense relationship, altering both of their lives forever.
    STARRING    : Kate Winslet, Saoirse Ronan, Fiona Shaw, Gemma Jones, James McArdle

  4. Sophia Loren
    "The Life Ahead" (Netflix)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: 2 nominations, 1 win (1960's "La ciociara" plus an honorary Oscar in 1991)
    ROLE: Madame Rosa
    –
    DIRECTOR: Edoardo Ponti
    SYNOPSIS    : In seaside Italy, a Holocaust survivor with a daycare business takes in a 12-year-old street kid who recently robbed her..
    STARRING    : Sophia Loren, Ibrahima Gueye

  5. Carrie Coon
    "The Nest" (IFC Films)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Allison O'Hara
    –
    DIRECTOR: Sean Durkin
    SYNOPSIS: Life for an entrepreneur and his American family begins to take a twisted turn after moving into an English country manor.
    STARRING: Jude Law, Carrie Coon, Oona Roche, Charlie Shotwell, Tanya Allen

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Nicole Beharie in “Miss Juneteenth” (Vertical Entertainment) Courtesy of Sundance Institute

TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. Nicole Beharie
    "Miss Juneteenth" (Vertical Entertainment)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Turquoise Jones
    –
    DIRECTOR: Channing Godfrey Peoples
    SYNOPSIS: A former beauty queen and single mom prepares her rebellious teenage daughter for the "Miss Juneteenth" pageant.
    STARRING: Nicole Beharie, Kendrick Sampson, Alexis Chikaeze, Lori Hayes

  2. Zendaya
    "Malcolm & Marie" (Netflix)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Marie
    –
    DIRECTOR: Sam Levinson
    SYNOPSIS: A director and his girlfriend's relationship is tested after they return home from his movie premiere and await critics' responses
    STARRING: John David Washington, Zendaya

  3. Rashida Jones
    "On the Rocks" (Apple TV Plus)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Laura
    –
    DIRECTOR: Sofia Coppola
    SYNOPSIS: A young mother reconnects with her larger-than-life playboy father on an adventure through New York.
    STARRING:Rashida Jones, Bill Murray, Marlon Wayans, Jessica Henwick, Jenny Slate

  4. Yeri Han
    "Minari" (A24)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Monica
    –
    DIRECTOR: Lee Isaac Chung
    SYNOPSIS: A Korean family moves to Arkansas to start a farm in the 1980s.
    STARRING: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan S. Kim, Yuh-jung Youn, Will Patton

  5. Sienna Miller
    "Wander Darkly" (Lionsgate)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Adrienne
    –
    DIRECTOR: Tara Miele
    SYNOPSIS: New parents Adrienne and Matteo are forced to reckon with trauma amidst their troubled relationship. They must revisit the memories of their past and unravel haunting truths in order to face their uncertain future.
    STARRING: Sienna Miller, Diego Luna, Beth Grant, Vanessa Bayer

  6. Elisabeth Moss
    "Shirley" (Neon)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Shirley Jackson
    –
    DIRECTOR: Josephine Decker
    SYNOPSIS: A famous horror writer finds inspiration for her next book after she and her husband take in a young couple.
    STARRING: Elisabeth Moss, Michael Stuhlbarg, Odessa Young, Logan Lerman, Victoria Pedretti

  7. Julia Garner
    "The Assistant" (Bleecker Street)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Jane
    –
    DIRECTOR: Kitty Green
    SYNOPSIS: A searing look at a day in the life of an assistant to a powerful executive. As Jane follows her daily routine, she grows increasingly aware of the insidious abuse that threatens every aspect of her position.
    STARRING: Julia Garner, Matthew Macfadyen, Kristein Froseth, Clara Wong

  8. Robin Wright
    "Land" (Focus Features)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Edie Mathis
    –
    DIRECTOR: Robin Wright
    SYNOPSIS: A bereaved woman seeks out a new life, off the grid in Wyoming.
    STARRING: Robin Wright, Demián Bichir, Kim Dickens, Warren Christie

  9. Anya Taylor-Joy
    "Emma." (Focus Features)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Emma Woodhouse
    –
    DIRECTOR: Autumn de Wilde
    SYNOPSIS: In 1800s England, a well meaning but selfish young woman meddles in the love lives of her friends.
    STARRING: Anya Taylor-Joy, Angus Imrie, Letty Thomas, Gemma Whelan, Bill Nighy

  10. Elisabeth Moss
    "The Invisible Man" (Universal Pictures)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Cecilia Kass
    –
    DIRECTOR: Leigh Whannell
    SYNOPSIS: When Cecilia's abusive ex takes his own life and leaves her his fortune, she suspects his death was a hoax. As a series of coincidences turn lethal, Cecilia works to prove that she is being hunted by someone nobody can see.
    STARRING: Elisabeth Moss, Aldis Hodge, Harriet Dyer, Oliver Jackson-Cohen, Storm Reid, Michael Dorman

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Radha Blank in The Forty-Year-Old Version Courtesy of Jeong Park/Netflix

ALSO IN CONTENTION:

  1. Amy Adams
    "Hillbilly Elegy" (Netflix)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: 6 nominations
    ROLE: Bev
    –
    DIRECTOR: Ron Howard
    SYNOPSIS: An urgent phone call pulls a Yale Law student back to his Ohio hometown, where he reflects on three generations of family history and his own future.
    STARRING: Amy Adams, Glenn Close, Gabriel Basso, Haley Bennett, Freida Pinto, Bo Hopkins, Owen Asztalos

  2. Sidney Flanigan
    "Never Rarely Sometimes Always" (Focus Features)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Autumn
    –
    DIRECTOR: Eliza Hittman
    SYNOPSIS: Faced with an unintended pregnancy and a lack of local support, Autumn and her cousin Skylar embark across state lines from rural Pennsylvania to New York City on a fraught journey of friendship, bravery and compassion.
    STARRING: Sidney Flanigan, Talia Ryder, Théodore Pellerin

  3. Radha Blank
    "The Forty-Year-Old Version" (Netflix)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Radha
    –
    DIRECTOR: Radha Blank
    SYNOPSIS: Radha is a down-on-her-luck NY playwright, who is desperate for a breakthrough before 40. Reinventing herself as rapper RadhaMUSPrime, she vacillates between the worlds of Hip Hop and theater in order to find her true voice.
    STARRING: Radha Blank, Peter Kim, Oswin Benjamin, Imani Lewis, Antonio Ortiz, Haskiri Velazquez, T.J. Atoms

  4. Jessie Buckley
    "I'm Thinking of Ending Things" (Netflix)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Young woman
    –
    DIRECTOR: Charlie Kaufman
    SYNOPSIS: Full of misgivings, a young woman travels with her new boyfriend to his parents' secluded farm. Upon arriving, she comes to question everything she thought she knew about him, and herself.
    STARRING: Jesse Plemons, Jessie Buckley, David Thewlis, Toni Collette

  5. Katherine Waterston
    "The World to Come" (Bleecker Street)
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    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Abigail
    –
    DIRECTOR: Monica Fastvold
    SYNOPSIS: Somewhere along the mid-19th century American East Coast frontier, two neighboring couples battle hardship and isolation, witnessed by a splendid yet testing landscape, challenging them both physically and psychologically.
    STARRING: Katherine Waterston, Vanessa Kirby, Casey Affleck, Christopher Abbott, Karina Ziana Gherasim

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)

 

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