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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE.

2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTOR

UPDATED: Nov. 19, 2020 (PRE-SEASON)

The first reactions to Chadwick Boseman’s work “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” have dropped, and the word is amazingly positive and sets up a race that will be very competitive between him and Oscar-winner Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”). With “Mank” looking to be an AMPAS favorite, Gary Oldman will fight his way back to the best actor lineup after winning for “Darkest Hour.” Colin Firth has also been confirmed for a lead submission, which he may be an easy pairing on ballots with co-star Stanley Tucci.

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories


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Chadwick Boseman in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix) Netflix

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. Chadwick Boseman
    "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)

  2. Anthony Hopkins
    "The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)

  3. Delroy Lindo
    "Da 5 Bloods" (Netflix)

  4. Gary Oldman
    "Mank" (Netflix)

  5. Steven Yeun
    "Minari" (A24)

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“Supernova” with Colin Firth and Stanley Tucci Courtesy of Bleecker Street

NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:

  1. Lakeith Stanfield†/††
    "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.)

  2. Riz Ahmed
    "Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)

  3. Colin Firth
    "Supernova" (Bleecker Street)

  4. Kingsley Ben-Adir
    "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)

  5. George Clooney
    "The Midnight Sky" (Netflix)

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Tom Hanks in “News of the World” (Universal Pictures) Photo courtesy of Universal Pictures

TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. Tom Hanks
    "News of the World" (Universal Pictures)

  2. Ben Affleck
    "The Way Back" (Warner Bros.)

  3. Tahar Rahim
    "The Mauratanian" (STX Films)

  4. Sacha Baron Cohen
    "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" (Amazon Studios)

  5. Jude Law
    "The Nest" (IFC Films)

  6. John David Washington
    "Malcolm & Marie" (Netflix)

  7. Tom Holland
    "Cherry" (Apple TV Plus)

  8. Winston Duke
    "Nine Days" (Sony Pictures Classics)

  9. Dev Patel
    "The Personal History of David Copperfield" (Searchlight Pictures)

  10. Jesse Plemons
    "I'm Thinking of Ending Things" (Netflix)

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John Magaro in “First Cow” (A24) Photo Courtesy of A24

ALSO IN CONTENTION:

  1. Peter Gerety
    "Working Man" (Brainstorm Media)

  2. John Magaro
    "First Cow" (A24)

  3. Eli Goree
    "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)

  4. Andy Samberg
    "Palm Springs" (Hulu/Neon)

  5. James Corden
    "The Prom" (Netflix)

  6. Adarsh Gourav
    "The White Tiger" (Netflix)

  7. John David Washington
    "Tenet" (Warner Bros.)

  8. Armando Espitia
    "I Carry You With Me" (Sony Pictures Classics)

  9. Ibrahima Gueye
    "The Life Ahead" (Netflix)

  10. Ntare Guma Mbaho Mwine
    "Farewell Amor" (IFC Films)

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Rob Morgan in “Bull” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Photo courtesy of Sony Pictures Worldwide

MORE AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. Max Harwood
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" (20th Century Studios)

  2. Luca Marinelli
    "Martin Eden" (Kino Lorber)

  3. Rob Morgan
    "Bull" (Sony Pictures Worldwide)

  4. Pete Davidson
    "The King of Staten Island" (Universal Pictures)

  5. Jim Parsons
    "The Boys in the Band" (Netflix)

  6. Jamie Dornan
    "Wild Mountain Thyme" (Bleecker Street)

  7. Richard Jenkins
    "The Last Shift" (Sony Pictures Worldwide)

  8. Justin Timberlake
    "Palmer" (Apple TV Plus)

  9. Garrett Hedlund
    "Burden" (101 Studios)

  10. Mark Wahlberg
    "Joe Bell" (Solstice Studios)

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Jungleland Toronto Film Festival

UNRANKED AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  • Steve Carell, “Irresistible” (Focus Features)
  • Kevin Costner, “Let Him Go” (Focus Features)
  • Benedict Cumberatch, “The Courier” (Lionsgate)
  • Bruce Dern, “The Artist’s Wife” (Strand Releasing)
  • Scott Eastwood, “The Outpost” (Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment)
  • Harrison Ford, “The Call of the Wild” (20th Century Studios)
  • Louis Gossett, Jr., “The Cuban” (Brainstorm Media)
  • Tom Holland, “Onward” (Pixar)
  • Charlie Hunnam, “Jungleland” (Vertical Entertainment)
  • Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.)††
  • Matthew McConaughey, “The Gentlemen” (STX Entertainment)
  • Liam Neeson, “Ordinary Love” (Bleecker Street)
  • Trevante Rhodes, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (Paramount Pictures)††
  • Ben Schwartz, “Standing Up, Falling Down” (Shout! Factory)
  • Harry Shum Jr., “All my Life” (Universal Pictures)
  • Sebastian Stan, “The Last Full Measure” (Roadside Attractions)

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded actor in best actor is Daniel Day-Lewis with three (“My Left Foot,” “There Will Be Blood” and “Lincoln”). The most nominated actors in this category in the history of the Academy are Laurence Olivier and Spencer Tracy. The oldest winner to date is Henry Fonda who won at the age of 76 for “On Golden Pond” while the oldest nominee is Richard Farnsworth, who was nominated at 79 for “The Straight Story.” The youngest winner is Adrien Brody at 29-year-old when he won for “The Pianist” while the youngest nominee is Jackie Cooper who was nominated at the age of 9 for “Skippy.”

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)