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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE

DRAFT>>>PRE SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON

2021 GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

UPDATED: Jan. 2, 2021

AWARDS COMMENTARY:
The “overdue” narrative is typically used when assessing an Oscar campaign, but once in a while, you begin to notice some veterans who have come up empty-handed in other awards show spaces. Anthony Hopkins (“The Father“) is one of those candidates this year who, despite winning an Academy Award for “The Silence of the Lambs,” the 83-year-old has never walked away with a competitive Golden Globe with seven previous nominations (he was the recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille awards in 2006). Even if Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom“) is on a clear path to the Oscars, Hopkins’ nil record with the HFPA may come into play when voting. You can always look for big named celebrities to enter the fray, and a few leading men may catch the HFPA’s eye this year – Ben Affleck (“The Way Back”), Tom Holland (“Cherry”), Justin Timberlake (“Palmer”) or John David Washington (“Malcolm & Marie” or “Tenet”) will be in the mix. That “star inclusion” typically comes at the expense of a person on their way to the Dolby Theatre, and that could leave Delroy Lindo (“Da 5 Bloods”), Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”), or Steven Yeun (“Minari”) vulnerable (at the Globes at least). That doesn’t suggest that those big stars won’t be deserving of recognition because they will be. All around, just a stacked year in the best actor race.


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Olivia Colman and Anthony Hopkins in “The Father” from co-writer and director Florian Zeller Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. Chadwick Boseman
    "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)
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    GLOBES HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Levee

    DIRECTOR: George C. Wolfe
    SYNOPSIS: Chicago, 1927. A recording session. Tensions rise between Ma Rainey, her ambitious horn player and the white management determined to control the uncontrollable "Mother of the Blues". Based on Pulitzer Prize winner August Wilson's play..
    STARRING: Chadwick Boseman, Dusan Brown, Jonny Coyne, Viola Davis, Colman Domingo, Taylour Paige, Michael Potts, Jeremy Shamos, Glynn Turman


  2. Anthony Hopkins
    "The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)
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    GLOBES HISTORY: 7 nominations (Cecil B. DeMille receipent in 2006)
    ROLE: Anthony

    DIRECTOR: Florian Zeller
    SYNOPSIS: A man refuses all assistance from his daughter as he ages. As he tries to make sense of his changing circumstances, he begins to doubt his loved ones, his own mind and even the fabric of his reality.
    STARRING: Olivia Colman, Mark Gatiss, Anthony Hopkins, Imogen Poots, Rufus Sewell, Olivia Williams


  3. Delroy Lindo
    "Da 5 Bloods" (Netflix)
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    GLOBES HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Paul

    DIRECTOR: Spike Lee
    SYNOPSIS: Four African American vets battle the forces of man and nature when they return to Vietnam seeking the remains of their fallen squad leader and the gold fortune he helped them hide.
    STARRING: Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters, Jonathan Majors, Chadwick Boseman, Isiah Witlock, Jr,, Norm Lewis


  4. Riz Ahmed
    "Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)
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    GLOBES HISTORY: 1 nomination (HBO's "The Night Of" in 2017)
    ROLE: Ruben

    DIRECTOR: Darius Marder
    SYNOPSIS: A heavy-metal drummer's life is thrown into freefall when he begins to lose his hearing.
    STARRING: Riz Ahmed, Olivia Cooke, Paul Raci, Mathieu Almaric, Lauren Ridloff


  5. John David Washington
    "Malcolm & Marie" (Netflix)
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    GLOBES HISTORY: 1 nomination (2018's "BlacKkKlansman")
    ROLE: Malcolm

    DIRECTOR: Sam Levinson
    SYNOPSIS: A director and his girlfriend's relationship is tested after they return home from his movie premiere and await critics' responses.
    STARRING: John David Washington, Zendaya


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Ben Affleck in “The Way Back” from director Gavin O’Connor Richard Foreman

NEXT IN LINE:

  1. Steven Yeun
    "Minari" (A24)
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    GLOBES HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Jacob

    DIRECTOR: Lee Isaac Chung
    SYNOPSIS: A Korean family moves to Arkansas to start a farm in the 1980s.
    STARRING: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan S. Kim, Yuh-jung Youn, Will Patton


  2. Gary Oldman
    "Mank" (Netflix)
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    GLOBES HISTORY: 1 nomination, 1 win (2017's "Darkest Hour")
    ROLE: Herman J. Mankiewicz

    DIRECTOR: David Fincher
    SYNOPSIS: 1930s Hollywood is re-evaluated through the eyes of scathing social critic and alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he races to finish the screenplay of Citizen Kane for Orson Welles.
    STARRING: Tom Burke, Lily Collins, Joseph Cross, Charles Dance, Monika Gossman, Ferdinand Kingsley, Jamie McShane, Tuppence Middleton, Toby Leonard Moore, Gary Oldman, Tom Pelphrey, Amanda Seyfried, Sam Troughton


  3. Ben Affleck
    "The Way Back" (Warner Bros.)
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    GLOBES HISTORY: 3 nominations, 2 wins (1997's "Good Will Hunting" in best screenplay and 2012's "Argo" in best director)
    ROLE: Jack Cunningham

    DIRECTOR: Gavin O'Connor
    SYNOPSIS
    : Jack Cunningham was a high school basketball phenom who walked away from the game, forfeiting his future. Years later, when he reluctantly accepts a coaching job at his alma mater, he may get one last shot at redemption..
    STARRING
    : Ben Affleck, Al Madrigal, Janina Gavankar


  4. Colin Firth
    "Supernova" (Bleecker Street)
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    GLOBES HISTORY: 2 nominations, 1 wins (2010's "The King's Speech")
    ROLE: Sam

    DIRECTOR: Harry Macqueen
    SYNOPSIS
    : Sam and Tusker are traveling across England in their old RV to visit friends, family and places from their past. Since Tusker was diagnosed with dementia two years ago, their time together is the most important thing they have.
    STARRING
    : Colin Firth, Stanley Tucci, Pippa Haywood, Peter MacQueen, Nina Marlin


  5. Tom Hanks
    "News of the World" (Universal Pictures)
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    GLOBES HISTORY: 10 nominations, 4 wins (1988's "Big," 1993's "Philadelphia," 1994's "Forrest Gump" and 2001's "Cast Away" including Cecil B. Demille receipent in 2020)
    ROLE: Captain Jefferson Kyle Kidd

    DIRECTOR: Paul Greengrass
    SYNOPSIS: A Civil War veteran agrees to deliver a girl, taken by the Kiowa people years ago, to her aunt and uncle, against her will. They travel hundreds of miles and face grave dangers as they search for a place that either can call home.
    STARRING: Tom Hanks, Helena Zengel, Elizabeth Marvel, Mare Winningham, Michael Angelo Covino, Ray McKinnon


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Tom Holland in “Cherry” from Anthony and Joe Russo Photo courtesy of Apple TV Plus

ALSO IN CONTENTION:

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2020-2021 Golden Globes Awards Timeline

  • Deadline for submission of Golden Globe Motion Picture and Television entry forms – Nov. 30, 2020
  • Deadline for Television nomination ballots to be mailed to all HFPA members by Ernst & Young – Dec. 30, 2020
  • Deadline for receipt of Television nomination ballots by Ernst & Young at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT – Jan. 12, 2021
  • Deadline for Motion Picture nomination ballots to be mailed to all HFPA members by Ernst & Young at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT – Jan. 13, 2021
  • The final screening date for Motion Pictures – Jan. 26, 2021
  • The final date for Motion Picture press conferences – Jan. 27, 2021
  • Deadline for receipt of Motion Picture nomination ballots by Ernst & Young at 3:00 p.m. ET / 12:00 p.m. PT – Jan. 30, 2021
  • Nominations for the 78th Annual Golden Globe Awards announced at 8:00 a.m. ET / 5:00 a.m. PT – Feb. 3, 2021
  • Final ballots mailed to all HFPA members by Ernst & Young – Feb. 23, 2021
  • 78th Annual Golden Globe Awards will air live coast to coast at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT on NBC from The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California – Feb. 28, 2021

2021 Academy Awards Predictions

About the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television, across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” is next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.