Final Oscar Voting Begins: What Do We Know About Which Movies and Performances Could Win Academy Awards?

Awards Circuit Column: Could Brendan Fraser, Michelle Yeoh and Tom Cruise Win Oscars?

2023 Oscars Predictions - Best Picture - Everything Everywhere All at Once - The Banshees of Inisherin - The Fabelmans - Tar - Top Gun: Maverick
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It’s “Everything Everywhere’s” world — we just live in it.

Last weekend, the PGA and SAG awards gave the final clues to which films and performances might be the victors at the 95th Academy Awards. All evidence points to A24’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which won both ceremonies.

With final Oscar voting running March 2-7, the race is still impossible to call in several categories, notably some acting ones. However, best picture and director are locked in for Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s multiverse sensation. Assuming a likely WGA victory at Saturday’s ceremony, the movie will be the first to win all the major guilds — PGA, DGA, SAG and WGA — since “Argo” (2012). No film has ever lost best picture with all four behind it.

PGA is one of the most crucial awards to land on the way to the Oscar statuette. That’s because the guild mirrors the Academy’s ranked-choice voting method in selecting its top award. The PGA has provided key indicators in very tight matchups, such as “The Shape of Water” over “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (both 2017) and “CODA” over “The Power of the Dog” (both 2021).

As for the SAG Awards, “Everything Everywhere” broke the record with the most wins in history, at four, showing that the Actors Branch is fully behind its quirky humor and inclusive themes.

“That wasn’t only a win — that was a statement,” a member of the Actors Branch tells Variety. “I keep hearing from my colleagues and studios that people don’t like the movie. I haven’t met these people. Where are they? They’re clearly not voters.”

What’s helped “Everything Everywhere” is being the underdog, even now as voters have ballots in their hands. It’s a front-runner with a small “f.” That’s because of its independent status, genre and relatively unknown filmmakers and because it’s going up against auteurs like Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”) and Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”).

While the best picture outcome is crystal clear, three of the four acting races — lead actor and the two supporting races — are more unknown. BAFTA’s winning acting quartet of Austin Butler (“Elvis”), Cate Blanchett (“Tár”), Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon (both of “Banshees”) was completely different from SAG’s winning four of Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”), Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan and Jamie Lee Curtis (the latter three of “Everything Everywhere”).

In terms of lead actress, Blanchett had been batting a thousand, taking home BAFTA, Critics Choice and Golden Globes for her work in Todd Field’s psychological drama. Yeoh may have taken SAG, but BAFTA actress winners have better odds than SAG’s. You have to go back to Emmanuelle Riva for “Amour” (2012) to find a BAFTA winner losing to a SAG winner, in that case Jennifer Lawrence for “Silver Linings Playbook.” SAG winners Viola Davis (for “The Help” and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) and Glenn Close (“The Wife”) are among the other recent notable upsets.

Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) lost supporting actress to another veteran, Curtis, who delivered a moving speech. The SAG statistics for supporting actress winners help make Curtis’ case: Since 2009, only one SAG recipient in the category has failed to take the Oscar: Emily Blunt for “A Quiet Place” (2018). In fact, Blunt wasn’t Oscar nominated, while winner Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) was snubbed by SAG. BAFTA winner Condon also represents an opportunity for the international demographic to flex their ballots — and perhaps the Searchlight Pictures dark comedy’s only chance at not going zero for nine noms.

One underlying message of the awards season has been clear: save cinema. I suspect members will be considering that when casting their ballots.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.

Oscars Predictions (as of March 2)

Best Picture:
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang

Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Austin Butler, “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Supporting Actor:
Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Supporting Actress:
Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Original Screenplay:
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert

Adapted Screenplay:
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) — Sarah Polley

Animated Feature:
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) – Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley

Production Design:
“Babylon” (Paramount Pictures) — Florencia Martin (production designer), Anthony Carlino (set decorator)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix) – James Friend

Costume Design:
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.) — Catherine Martin

Film Editing:
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) — Eddie Hamilton

Makeup and Hairstyling:
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.) – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) — Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

Visual Effects:
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios) — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

Original Score:
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix) — Volker Bertelmann

Original Song:
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” (Variance Films) – Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose  

Documentary Feature:
“Navalny” (CNN/Warner Bros.) — Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

International Feature:
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)

Animated Short:
“My Year of Dicks” (Cat’s Pajamas) — Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon

Documentary Short:
“The Martha Mitchell Effect” (Netflix) – Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison

Live Action Short:
“An Irish Goodbye” (Floodlight Pictures) – Tom Berkeley and Ross White

Oscar predictions for winners (week of Feb. 9) are down below. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.