Final Oscar Noms Predictions: ‘Elvis’ and ‘Banshees’ Projected to Lead, ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Could Represent Only Sequel in Best Picture

Awards Circuit Column: The final picks for an unpredictable awards season where anything can happen.

Top Gun Maverick -- The Fabelmans -- All Quiet on the Western Front -- The Banshees of Inisherin -- Elvis
Everett Collection

All signs point to “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis” and “The Fabelmans” all dominating the Oscar noms with eight apiece. But if “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “Top Gun: Maverick” manage some pickups, they could join or surpass the group.

On Jan. 24, AMPAS will unveil its nominees for the 95th Academy Awards. The season has been marked by the return of the Hollywood blockbuster, and a love for old-fashioned movie extravaganzas will play a crucial role in how the nearly 9,600 members rank their ballots.

So what will be the story of the day?

Warner Bros’ musical biopic “Elvis” is looking to assemble a robust showing in the tech races, which doesn’t include an overdue career nom for director Baz Luhrmann. Still, its star Austin Butler is a lock for his first nod in best actor.

Martin McDonagh’s Irish comedy “The Banshees of Inisherin” might only nab one technical achievement in editing. Nonetheless, all four of its cast members are expected to be recognized, two being first-time nods for veteran stars Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson.

Paul Dano and Michelle Williams in “The Fabelmans” ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection

If “Fabelmans” garners the most noms, it would be the fourth Steven Spielberg film – after “The Color Purple” (1985), “Schindler’s List” (1993) and “Lincoln” (2012) – to lead the nomination tally in a given year. Despite a weak BAFTA showing, Spielberg and Universal’s movie is predicted to rack up multiple mentions, including best picture.

Among the eight categories is a surprise nom for Michelle Williams in supporting actress, despite campaigning in lead actress. Academy voters have the freedom to vote for an actor in any category they choose, which they’ve done a handful of times with “supporting” performers who were moved to lead (i.e., Kate Winslet in “The Reader”). However, there is precedent for the opposite effect occurring in history. Most recently with Lakeith Stanfield for “Judas and the Black Messiah” (2020), and notably with Kevin Kline for “A Fish Called Wanda” (1988). As Otto in the classic Charles Crichton comedy, Kline only landed a single mention during the respective season at the BAFTAs (in leading actor). He was one of the shocking inclusions on Oscar nomination morning, eventually going on to win best supporting actor. This doesn’t necessarily mean Williams is switched. Perhaps she’s missing out entirely?

Populist titles should see a decent day, with multiple sequels on the bubble for recognition. The aerial crowd-pleaser “Top Gun: Maverick” is the only new installment predicted to make the lineup. A surprising outcome, despite PGA recognizing four sequels, which also included the visual spectacle “Avatar: The Way of Water,” the emotionally-charged “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and the whodunit comedy “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.”

A24’s kickass multiverse gem “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” along with leads Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan, are locked in their respective races. However, despite a strong Critics Choice Awards showing and a DGA nom, it could be an uphill climb for the visionary duo the Daniels to make it onto the directing roster. I’m reluctantly predicting their inclusion, but crossing my fingers for them and acting hopeful Stephanie Hsu.

As for the overall performance of studios, streaming giant Netflix looks to lead the tally with 15. That’s impressive considering the bleak outlook on its awards prospects earlier in the season. Now, with the German entry “All Quiet on the Western Front,” at least one best picture nom could be headed the streamer’s way (and maybe two with a possible shocker like “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”).

However, Oscar nomination morning may not be purely celebratory if the forecast of no women director nods becomes a reality. After a steady improvement in representation, we could see a strictly white male directing lineup — a first since 2011.

See Variety’s nomination predictions below.

Visit the individual category pages for additional commentary and rankings, or access them from the Oscars Predictions Collective page.

Best Picture

©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
    Daniel Marc Dreifuss, Malte Grunert
  • The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh
  • Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
    Baz Luhrmann, Gail Berman, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
    Daniel Kwan, Mike Larocca, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang
  • The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
    Tony Kushner, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg
  • Tár” (Focus Features)
    Todd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan
  • Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
    Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison
  • Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
    Philippe Bober, Erik Hemmendorff
  • The Whale” (A24)
    Jeremy Dawson, Darren Aronofsky, Ari Handel
  • Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
    Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Frances McDormand

Alternate: “RRR”

Best Director

Courtesy Everett Collection
  • Todd Field
    “Tár” (Focus Features)
  • Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  • Martin McDonagh
    “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Ruben Östlund
    “Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
  • Steven Spielberg
    “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Alternate: Joseph Kosinski, “Top Gun: Maverick”

Best Actor

Courtesy Everett Collection
  • Austin Butler
    “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
  • Colin Farrell
    “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Brendan Fraser
    “The Whale” (A24)
  • Tom Hanks
    “A Man Called Otto” (Sony Pictures)
  • Bill Nighy
    “Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Alternate: Hugh Jackman, “The Son”

Best Actress

Courtesy Everett Collection
  • Cate Blanchett
    “Tár” (Focus Features)
  • Viola Davis
    “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
  • Ana de Armas
    “Blonde” (Netflix)
  • Danielle Deadwyler
    “Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing)
  • Michelle Yeoh
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Alternate: Olivia Colman, “Empire of Light”

Supporting Actor

©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • Paul Dano
    “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  • Brendan Gleeson
    “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Barry Keoghan
    “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Ke Huy Quan
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  • Ben Whishaw
    “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

Alternate: Eddie Redmayne, “The Good Nurse”

Supporting Actress

©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection
  • Angela Bassett
    “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
  • Hong Chau
    “The Whale” (A24)
  • Kerry Condon
    “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Jamie Lee Curtis
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  • Michelle Williams
    “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Alternate: Dolly De Leon, “Triangle of Sadness”

Original Screenplay

©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Martin McDonagh
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
    Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
  • The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
    Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg
  • Tár” (Focus Features)
    Todd Field
  • Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
    Ruben Östlund

Alternate: “Aftersun”

Adapted Screenplay

©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
    Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell
  • Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Kazuo Ishiguro
  • She Said” (Universal Pictures)
    Rebecca Lenkiewicz
  • Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
    Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie
  • Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
    Sarah Polley, Miriam Toews

Alternate: “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

Animated Feature

Courtesy Everett Collection
  • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)
    Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Lisa Henson, Gary Ungar
  • Inu-oh” (GKids)
    Masaaki Yuasa, Fumie Takeuchi, Eunyoung Choi
  • Marcel the Shell With Shoes On” (A24)
    Dean Fleischer-Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, Paul Mezey
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks Animation)
    Joel Crawford, Mark Swift
  • Turning Red” (Pixar)
    Domee Shi, Lindsey Collins

Alternate: “Wendell and Wild”

Production Design

©Paramount/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
    Christian M. Goldbeck, Ernestine Hipper
  • Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
    Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, Vanessa Cole
  • Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)
    Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
  • Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
    Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn
  • The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
    Rick Carter, Karen O’Hara

Alternate: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”


©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
    Mandy Walker
  • Empire of Light” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Roger Deakins
  • The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
    Janusz Kamiński
  • Tár” (Focus Features)
    Florian Hoffmeister
  • Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
    Claudio Miranda

Alternate: “All Quiet on the Western Front”

Costume Design

©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)
    Mary Zophres
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
    Ruth E. Carter
  • Don’t Worry Darling” (Warner Bros.)
    Arianne Phillips
  • Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
    Catherine Martin
  • Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” (Focus Features)
    Jenny Beavan

Alternate: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Film Editing

©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
    Sven Budelmann
  • The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
  • Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
    Jonathan Redmond, Matt Villa
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
    Paul Rogers
  • Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
    Eddie Hamilton

Alternate: “The Fabelmans”

Makeup and Hairstyling

©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
    Heike Merker
  • Amsterdam” (20th Century Studios)
    Nana Fischer, Lori McCoy Bell, Adruitha Lee
  • The Batman” (Warner Bros.)
    Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, Zoe Tahir
  • Blonde” (Netflix)
    Tina Roesler Kerwin, Jaime Leigh McIntosh
  • Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
    Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, Louise Coulston

Alternate: “The Whale”


©Paramount/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
    Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Viktor Prášil
  • Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
    Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson, Julian Howarth
  • Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
    David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, Michael Keller
  • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)
    Scott Martin Gershin, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano
  • Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
    Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor

Alternate: “The Batman”

Visual Effects

©MGM/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
    Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett
  • The Batman” (Warner Bros.)
    Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dominic Tuohy
  • Nope” (Universal Pictures)
    Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, Sreejith Venugopalan, Scott R. Fisher
  • Thirteen Lives” (Amazon Studios/MGM)
    Jason Billington, Brian Cox, Bruce Bright
  • Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
    Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson

Alternate: “Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore”

Original Score

©Orion Pictures Corp/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
    Volker Bertelmann
  • Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)
    Justin Hurwitz
  • The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
    John Williams
  • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)
    Alexandre Desplat
  • Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
    Hildur Guðnadóttir

Alternate: “The Woman King”

Original Song

Courtesy Everett Collection
  • “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
    Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Ryan Coogler
  • “Ciao Papa” from “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)
    Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, Guillermo del Toro
  • “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” (Variance Films)
    Kala Bhairava, M. M. Keeravani, Rahul Sipligunj
  • “Good Afternoon” from “Spirited” (Apple Original Films)
    Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Benj Pasek, Justin Paul, Mark Sonnenblick
  • “Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman” (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
    Diane Warren

Alternate: “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick”

Documentary Feature

Courtesy Everett Collection
  • All That Breathes” (HBO Documentary Films/Sideshow)
    Shaunak Sen, Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann
  • Descendant” (Netflix)
    Margaret Brown, Essie Chambers, Kyle Martin
  • Fire of Love” (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon)
    Sara Dosa, Shane Boris, Ina Fichman
  • Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Daniel Geller, Dayna Goldfine
  • Navalny” (CNN/Warner Bros.)
    Daniel Roher, Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae

Alternate: “Retrograde”

International Feature

Courtesy Everett Collection
  • All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
    Edward Berger
  • Argentina, 1985” (Argentina)
    Santiago Mitre
  • Close” (Belgium)
    Lukas Dhont
  • Decision to Leave” (South Korea)
    Park Chan-wook
  • The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)
    Colm Bairéad

Alternate: “EO”

Animated Short

Courtesy Everett Collection
  • The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” (Apple TV+)
    Peter Baynton, Charlie Mackesy, J.J. Abrams, Matthew Freud, Cara Speller
  • The Flying Sailor” (National Film Board of Canada)
    Wendy Tilby, Amanda Forbis, David Christensen
  • Ice Merchants” (Curtas Metragens CRL/Agência)
    João Gonzalez, Bruno Caetano, Michael Proenca
  • New Moon” (Edith Productions)
    Raul Domingo, Colman Domingo, Jérémie Balais, Jeffig Le Bars
  • Save Ralph” (Blue-Tongue Films)
    Spencer Susser, Lisa Hill, Jeff Vespa

Alternate: “More Than I Want to Remember”

Documentary Short

©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection
  • As Far as They Can Run” (MTV Documentary Films)
    Tanaz Eshaghian, Christoph Jörg
  • The Flagmakers” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
    Sharon Liese, Cynthia Wade
  • The Martha Mitchell Effect” (Netflix)
    Anne Alvergue, Beth Levison, Judith Mizrachy
  • Nuisance Bear” (The New Yorker)
    Gabriela Osio Vanden, Jack Weisman, Melissa Fajardo, Will N. Miller
  • 38 at the Garden” (HBO Max)
    Frank Chi, Trayvon Free, Samir Hernandez

Alternate: “Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison”

Live Action Short

Courtesy Everett Collection
  • An Irish Goodbye” (Floodlight Pictures)
    Tom Berkeley, Ross White, Pearce Cullen, Sean A. Murray
  • Le Pupille” (Disney+)
    Alice Rohrwacher, Carlo Cresto-Dina, Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodriguez
  • The Red Suitcase” (Cynefilms)
    Cyrus Neshvad
  • Sideral” (Les Valseurs)
    Carlos Segundo, Damien Megherbi, Justin Pecherty, Mariana Hardi, Pedro Fiuza
  • Warsha” (The Criterion Channel)
    Dania Bdeir, Coralie Dias

Alternate: “Nakam”

Predicted Film Tally (two or more)

  • “All Quiet on the Western Front” — 8
  • “The Banshees of Inisherin” — 8
  • “Elvis” — 8
  • “The Fabelmans” — 8
  • “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 7
  • “Top Gun: Maverick” — 6
  • “Tár” — 5
  • “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” — 4
  • “Women Talking” — 4
  • “Avatar: The Way of Water” — 3
  • “Babylon” — 3
  • “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” — 3
  • “The Whale” — 3
  • “Triangle of Sadness” — 3
  • “The Batman” — 2
  • “Living” — 2

Predicted Studio Tally (three or more)

  • Netflix — 15
  • A24 — 11
  • Warner Bros. — 11
  • Paramount Pictures — 9
  • Universal Pictures — 9
  • Searchlight Pictures — 9
  • Focus Features — 6
  • MGM/UAR — 6
  • 20th Century Studios — 5
  • Marvel Studios — 5
  • Neon — 4
  • Sony Pictures Classics — 3

2023 Academy Awards Predictions