It’s a growing tradition that as MipTV or Mipcom winds down, Ampere AnalysisGuy Bisson will present a concise bullet point analysis on what’s really going on with the TV business, making complex current phenomena eminently comprehensible.

He did just that on Wednesday at this year’s MipTV, listing “15 things you need to think about to survive and thrive” in a presentation, Navigating the New World Order: TV Business Now and Next.  Here’s a summary of key points:

It’s a Great Time to Be a Big Independent 

Access to Hollywood studio content has plunged as the majors reserve much for their own streaming platforms. Netflix had 816 Disney titles in its catalog in 2016, only 227 in 2021. Less than two-years-old studio content on linear TV in Europe’s Big 5 was 27% down in January 2022, compared to September 2020, Bisson said. Yet, post-COVID 19, the content boom is “louder than ever,” in terms of global streaming and linear project commissions, he noted. That creates new opportunities for big independent studios – Blumhouse, ITV Studios, BBC Studios, ZDF Studios, Movistar Plus – Bisson argued, echoing remarks made by Candle Media’s Kevin Mayer on Monday. “Changes in the rights market now represent more opportunity than risk,” said Bisson.

AVOD Hits a Wall in Europe?

Are AVOD and FAST (Free Ad Supported TV services such as Samsung TV Plus) hitting a wall in Europe? U.S. growth has been spectacular, up from 17% of U.S. homes third quarter 2020 to 34% third quarter 2021, Ampere Analysis’ Guy Bisson announced at MipTV on Wednesday. Outside the U.S., however, AVOD and FAST have yet to find traction, homes viewing AVOD in Europe rising from 1% third quarter 2020 to just 4% a year later. One reason? “National broadcasters dominate ad-supported streaming video,” said Bisson, their market share rising from 39% of homes to 43% in the same period. Free business models are, however, already playing a pivotal role in the transition of viewing to streaming in both a hybrid-service and aggregation model, Bisson observed. All the studios work hybrid VOD offers, he added.

Europe Opens Up to Non-U.S. Fare

“We are all aware that tastes are changing, interest in non U.S. content is growing significantly whether that be TV or movies. said Bisson, who offered stats substantiating that trend. The percentage of overseas (non-U.S.) series with subtitles available in Europe’s Big 5 was 25.8% in Q3 2019, 32.5% in Q3 2021. Movies with subtitles rose from 29.9% of the total offer to 36.3% over the same two years. With the U.S. market “pretty well saturated,” Bisson said, major U.S streamers in Europe have ratcheted up their local commissioning, new non-U.S. titles accounting in Europe for 65% of Netflix titles and 54% of Prime Video’s.

New Measures of Success

Audiences numbers are still important but the measure of success has changed thanks to streaming from eyeballs to how a title drives subscriber sign-ups and drives down churn, Bisson argued. He cited Season 2 of Disney Plus’ “The Mandalorian,” where incremental subs rose from 0.15% of he service’s total one day out from its bow to 0.35% on the day of its premiere and nearly 0.45% the day after. Just how success works varies, however. When “Squid Game” dropped on Netflix, the streamer saw below-average sign-up rates for the following month. It was only in its second month on release that it really caught fire, thanks to global fandom word of mouth.

Star Actors Eclipsed by Star Creators

“There is a new studio Star System…but instead of focusing on acting talent (as it did in the 1930s), it prioritizes those with the skills to create new stories, produce new shows and manage the evolution of new character IP…in other words, to make content that will succeed by the measures important in the new world order….,” Bisson announced. That coincides with comments from other speakers at Cannes panels. “Ultimately it’s about the show and the talent we bring,” Fremantle’s Christian Vesper said on Sunday in Cannes. But he wasn’t talking about actors. “We have had two Italian shows and one Danish series on HBO in the U.S.: that was Luca Guadagnino, Paolo Sorrentino and Tobias Lindholm [behind them]. That’s what got them into the U.S. on that level.”