With Oscar voting officially underway, members of the Academy are hunkering down and catching up on all the films from this year of extended eligibility. Inarguably the hardest awards season to read in modern history, there are dozens of interpretations of how the season will shake out and where AMPAS voters’ minds are within the race.

I believe there’s an “X” factor to this awards season that could potentially affect what pundits perceive the nominations could look like. In addition, there’s also a disagreement on what this “X” factor could be. Some argue: just look at the guilds, that’s the only Oscar voter overlap. Others say Academy voters are disconnected from the season, and anything is possible. The truth is, it’s somewhere in the middle — but my theory is that international voters can be the tilt for various films and performances.

There are no parties, screening events or casual run-ins with voters this year. We’re reading the temperature through cell phones, emails and Zoom meetings. In the end, nearly 10,000 voters can say one thing publicly, and something different privately — depending on who is on the other side of the line.

As we venture into the unknown, we thought it would be helpful to take a look back at the last decade’s most shocking inclusions and snubs that occurred on Oscar nomination morning. Also included is an artisan mention as the “below-the-line” nominations (or lack thereof) give an interesting read of a film overall.

Read the list down below.

2010 (83rd Oscars)

Shocking inclusion: Javier Bardem, “Biutiful” (best actor)
Shocking exclusion: Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network” (best supporting actor)

Artisan inclusion: “I Am Love” (best costume design)
Artisan exclusion: “Shutter Island” (best art direction, now called production design)

Previous winners can often make a sneak into the acting categories, and Javier Bardem was able to do so over the likes of Robert Duvall (“Get Low”) and Ryan Gosling (“Blue Valentine”) for Alejandro González Iñárritu’s foreign language nominated film “Biutiful” from Mexico. One of the eyebrow raisers was Andrew Garfield’s omission for one of the best picture frontrunners, “The Social Network” from David Fincher.

2011 (84th Oscars)

Shocking inclusion: “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” (best picture)
Shocking exclusion: David Fincher, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” (best director)

Artisan inclusion: “A Cat in Paris” (best animated feature)
Artisan exclusion: “The Help” (best costume design)

On Oscar nomination morning, what looked like a probable eight film best picture lineup quickly got screams from audiences when the title card flipped over and showed Tom Hanks and young Thomas Horn from Stephen Daldry’s “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close,” a Warner Bros feature that received a lashing from critics. Despite a near-perfect guild showing for Fincher’s “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” except at the SAG awards, Fincher and the film failed to make the shortlist in the top spots.

2012 (85th Oscars)

Shocking inclusion: Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild” (best director)
Shocking exclusion: Ben Affleck, “Argo” (best director)

Artisan inclusion: “Life of Pi” (best production design)
Artisan exclusion: “The Avengers” (best sound editing)

Who can forget the year that forgot the director of the best picture winner, “Argo.” While equally shocking for the snub of Kathryn Bigelow (“Zero Dark Thirty”), co-producer, director and star Ben Affleck didn’t have his name read by announcer and host Seth MacFarlane. Instead, the AMPAS found their way to Benh Zeitlin’s Sundance hit, “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” which nabbed four major nominations including for the first time filmmaker.

2013 (86th Oscars)

Shocking inclusion: Christian Bale, “American Hustle” (best actor)
Shocking exclusion: Tom Hanks, “Captain Phillips” (best actor)

Artisan inclusion: “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa” (best makeup and hairstyling)
Artisan exclusion: “12 Years a Slave” (best cinematography)

The addition of Christian Bale’s turn in David O. Russell’s “American Hustle” doesn’t look as strange considering he received BAFTA, Globe and Critics Choice nods. But many doubted he would be able to overcome one of the most competitive lead actor contenders in Oscar history, along with the doubt that the film would be able to land four acting nods, which hadn’t happened since Warren Beatty’s “Reds” (1981), and just one year prior for another Russell film, “Silver Linings Playbook.” Well, he managed it, and over one of Tom Hanks’ most invigorating portrayals as the kidnapped ship captain in Paul Greengrass’ “Captain Phillips.”

2014 (87th Oscars)

Shocking inclusion: Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher” (best director)
Shocking exclusion: Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nightcrawler” (best actor)

Artisan inclusion: “Birdman” (best sound editing)
Artisan exclusion: “Birdman” (best film editing)

Bennett Miller was the first filmmaker to be the lone director nominee in the expanded best picture era for the darkly rich “Foxcatcher.” Joining a list that includes Stephen Daldry, Miller’s first three feature films have received a best picture or director nomination – “Capote” (2005), “Moneyball” (2011) and “Foxcatcher.” While exciting, many felt nothing but heartbreak for Jake Gyllenhaal, who, despite receiving nods from BAFTA, Globes and SAG, was egregiously left off the best actor list for Dan Gilroy’s “Nightcrawler.”

2015 (88th Oscars)

Shocking inclusion: Tom Hardy, “The Revenant” (best supporting actor)
Shocking exclusion: Idris Elba, “Beasts of No Nation” (best supporting actor)

Artisan inclusion: “The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared” (best makeup)
Artisan exclusion: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” (best production design)

Leonardo DiCaprio won best actor as the frontiersman Hugh Glass in Alejandro González Iñárritu’s “The Revenant,” and on the bubble for most of the awards season was his co-star Tom Hardy, who only managed a Critics Choice nomination going into Oscar morning. Coming at the cost of SAG winner Idris Elba and Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”), Hardy muscled his way into the mix, keeping up an interesting trend. Every one of DiCaprio’s lead actor nominations has brought along a supporting actor nod for the ride – “The Aviator” (Alan Alda), “Blood Diamond” (Djimon Hounsou), “The Wolf of Wall Street” (Jonah Hill), “The Revenant” and most recently “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” (Oscar-winner Brad Pitt).

2016 (89th Oscars)

Shocking inclusion: Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals” (best supporting actor)
Shocking exclusion: Amy Adams, “Arrival” (best actress)

Artisan inclusion: “Kubo and the Two Strings” (best visual effects)
Artisan exclusion: “Jackie” (best production design)

Paul Giamatti (“Sideways”), Lupita Nyong’o (“Us”), Peter Sarsgaard (“Shattered Glass”), Maria Bello (“A History of Violence”) – Names like those sting when you think about their shocking absences from the acting lineups from the last two decades. Amy Adams’ beautiful and career-topping performance in “Arrival” joined that unbearable list of talents, especially since they seemed like sure things in their respective years, even as challengers to the eventual winners. Her co-star from “Nocturnal Animals,” Michael Shannon, popped up for the second time in his career with a best supporting actor nomination without recognition from Globes, SAG and BAFTA.

2017 (90th Oscars)

Shocking inclusion: Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread” (best director)
Shocking exclusion: Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (best director)

Artisan inclusion: “Logan” (best adapted screenplay)
Artisan exclusion: “Get Out” (best film editing)

Martin McDonagh’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” went into the Oscars with best picture wins from the Globes and BAFTA, along with a SAG cast ensemble prize. To fathom that the filmmaker would be left off, in favor of not just a shocking entry like Paul Thomas Anderson, but then also double-downed with a correlating best picture nomination — not sure too many could foresee such an outcome. It then lost Oscars’ top prize to Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water.” Those curveballs always make the awards season more interesting.

2018 (91st Oscars)

Shocking inclusion: Marina de Tavira, “Roma” (best supporting actress)
Shocking exclusion: Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born” (best director)

Artisan inclusion: “Bohemian Rhapsody” (best sound editing)
Artisan exclusion: “First Man” (best original score)

Netflix’s “Roma” was coming on strong and was expected to pull in some surprise nods, particularly for its star Yalitza Aparicio as the Mexico City maid, which it did. She also pulled in her glorious counterpart Marina de Tavira, who plays the mother of the family she serves. For a second consecutive year, another shocking director snub occurred, and with someone that looked like a “sure thing” — Bradley Cooper, who also starred, produced and co-wrote the script and several of the film’s songs. Peter Farrelly’s absence for “Green Book” was also shocking, considering the film won best picture.

2019 (92nd Oscars)

Shocking inclusion: Todd Phillips, “Joker”
Shocking exclusion: Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers” (best supporting actress)

Artisan inclusion: “The Lighthouse” (best cinematography)
Artisan exclusion: “Apollo 11” (best documentary feature)

Todd Phillips goes into the same description as Christian Bale’s entry on the list for “American Hustle.” Reading all the tea leaves, it seemed like an easy call, considering “Joker” led the nominations with 11. BAFTA and Globes all went for him, and yet, likely due to the superhero genre’s inclusion obstacles in the Academy, he seemed like a long shot. But nothing gobsmacked the pundit world than the blatant ignorance of Jennifer Lopez’s dynamic work in Lorene Scafaria’s “Hustlers,” one of just many snubs for POC last year — Lupita Nyong’o (“Us”), Jamie Foxx (“Just Mercy”), Awkwafina and Zhao Shuzhen (“The Farewell”) and Taylor Russell (“Waves”).

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