‘The Lost Daughter’ and ‘Mass’ Could Lead Gotham Awards Nominations

Other films expected to have a strong showing at the Gothams include "CODA," "Red Rocket" and "Shiva Baby" while "Spencer" is only eligible for international.

The Gotham Awards will announce nominations tomorrow and expected to lead the charge, primarily due to the changes in the number of nominees allowed in new categories, are Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut “The Lost Daughter” from Netflix and Fran Kranz’s “Mass” from Bleecker Street.

The Gotham Film & Media Institute, which oversees the Gotham Awards, announced in August that awards for acting would no longer be defined by gender.

Last year’s Gotham for best picture went to “Nomadland,” which went on to win the Oscar for best picture. In a Gotham Awards first, the entire feature category was comprised of women directors. The tea leaves don’t necessarily point to another historic showing, but one film feels for sure, and that’s Gyllenhaal’s adaptation of the Elena Ferrante novel of the same name.

The best picture frontrunner “Belfast” from Kenneth Branagh skirts the line of being eligible for international features, but it qualifies for the traditional categories with two American producers. Unfortunately, the Focus Features film doesn’t seem like a critical darling. Instead, we’re betting on just young Jude Hill making the cut for the newly titled breakthrough performer category with a jury of five members. Supporting actor hopeful Ciarán Hinds could also pop up, but with the freshly minted gender-neutral categories, supporting is more competitive than the leading counterparts.

There are other films that qualify as international feature submissions only, including Pablo Larraín’s “Spencer” with Kristen Stewart (though she is receiving a performer tribute) and Mia Hansen-Løve’s “Bergman Island” with Vicky Krieps.

Oscar contenders that aren’t eligible due to the budget cap of $35 million include several from Netflix, including “The Power of the Dog,” “tick, tick…Boom!” and “The Harder They Fall.” Likewise, don’t expect to see “The Tragedy of Macbeth” from Apple Original Films, any of the Warner Bros films including “King Richard” and neither “The French Dispatch” nor “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” from Searchlight Pictures.

I’m expecting three actors from Bleecker Street’s mass-shooter aftermath drama “Mass” to make the cut: Ann Dowd, Jason Isaacs and Martha Plimpton. Of course, Kranz himself could make a play for the breakthrough director, but that category seems to be dominated by women, similar to last year when three of the five were occupied by female filmmakers.

The group typically likes to spread the wealth, and it’s always a question of whether the jury members are communicating with other groups. They can embrace some populist choices such as “Get Out” (2017) and “Hustlers” (2019) but have no qualms about going into the deep indie well for films such as “Relic” (2020) and “Madeline’s Madeline” (2018). This also becomes a precursor to the Independent Spirit Awards, which significantly impacts an earlier ceremony.

Other category updates include a new award for breakthrough nonfiction series, while international documentaries will be eligible in the best documentary feature category for the first time. In addition, up to ten nominees will be included in the three new categories: outstanding lead performance, outstanding supporting performance and outstanding performance in a new series, which is from the television side of Hollywood.

Nominations for the Gotham Awards will be announced Thursday, and the ceremony will take place on Nov. 29 at Cipriani Wall Street.

Here are the final predictions focusing on film.

Lazy loaded image
Nicolas Cage in “Pig” Courtesy of Neon

Best Feature

  1. “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
  2. “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
  3. “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
  4. “Jockey” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  5. “Red Rocket” (A24)

Alternates: “CODA” (Apple Original Films), “Shiva Baby” (Utopia), “Belfast” (Focus Features), “Holler” (IFC Films), “The Novice” (IFC Films)

Outstanding Lead Performance

  1. Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
  2. Clifton Collins Jr, “Jockey” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  3. Nicolas Cage, “Pig” (Neon)
  4. Simon Rex, “Red Rocket” (A24)
  5. Joaquin Phoenix, “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
  6. Isabelle Fuhrman, “The Novice” (IFC Films)
  7. Natalie Morales, “Language Lessons” (Shout! Studios)
  8. Dev Patel, “The Green Knight” (A24)
  9. Tessa Thompson, “Passing” (Netflix)
  10. Eric Bana, “The Dry” (IFC Films)

Alternates: Oscar Isaac, “The Card Counter” (Focus Features), Jake Gyllenhaal, “The Guilty” (Netflix), Michael Keaton, “Worth” (Netflix), Tim Blake Nelson, “Old Henry” (Shout! Studios), Justin Chon, “Blue Bayou” (Focus Features)

Outstanding Supporting Performance

  1. Ann Dowd, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
  2. Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
  3. Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
  4. Jason Isaacs, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
  5. Polly Draper, “Shiva Baby” (Utopia)
  6. Martha Plimpton, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
  7. André Holland, “Passing” (Netflix)
  8. Molly Parker, “Jockey” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  9. Colman Domingo, “Zola” (A24)
  10. Richard Jenkins, “The Humans” (A24/Showtime)

Alternates: Ruth Negga, “Passing” (Netflix), Jayne Houdyshell, “The Humans” (A24/Showtime), Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast” (Focus Features), Linh Dan Pham, “Blue Bayou” (Focus Features), Dakota Johnson, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director

  1. Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
  2. Rebecca Hall, “Passing” (Netflix)
  3. Natalie Morales, “Plan B” (Hulu)
  4. Lauren Hadaway, “The Novice” (IFC Films)
  5. Clint Bentley, “Jockey” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Alternates: Fran Kranz, “Mass” (Bleecker Street), Pascual Sisto, “John and the Hole” (IFC Films), Janicza Bravo, “Zola” (A24), Emma Seligman, “Shiva Baby” (Utopia), Michael Sarnoski, “Pig” (Neon), Nicole Riegel, “Holler” (IFC Films), Halle Berry, “Bruised” (Netflix), Justin Chon, “Blue Bayou” (Focus Features)

Gotham Breakthrough Performer Award

  1. Rachel Sennott, “Shiva Baby” (Utopia)
  2. Emilia Jones, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
  3. Woody Norman, “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
  4. Bree Elrod, “Red Rocket” (A24)
  5. Jude Hill, “Belfast” (Focus Features)

Alternates: Charlie Shotwell, “John and the Hole” (IFC Films), Taylour Paige, “Zola” (A24), Jessica Barden, “Holler” (IFC Films), Suzanna Son, “Red Rocket” (A24)

Lazy loaded image
“Shiva Baby” Courtesy Everett Collection

Best Screenplay

  1. “C’mon C’mon” (A24) – Mike Mills
  2. “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix) – Maggie Gyllenhaal
  3. “Mass” (Bleecker Street) – Fran Kranz
  4. “Shiva Baby” (Utopia) – Emma Seligman
  5. “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Siân Heder

Alternates: “Red Rocket” (A24) – Sean Baker, “Passing” (Netflix) – Rebecca Hall, “The Green Knight” (A24) – David Lowery, “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Branagh, “Holler” (IFC Films) – Nicole Riegel

Best Documentary

  1. “Procession” (Netflix)
  2. “The Rescue” (National Geographic)
  3. “The Velvet Underground” (Apple Original Films)
  4. “Val” (Amazon Studios)
  5. “Attica” (Showtime)

Alternates: “Flee” (Neon), “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Searchlight Pictures), “The Sparks Brothers” (Focus Features), “Citizen Ashe” (CNN Films/Magnolia Pictures), “The First Wave” (Neon), “Who We Are: A Chronicle of Racism in America” (Sony Pictures Classics), “Francesco” (Discovery Plus)

Best International Feature

  1. “Flee” (Neon)
  2. “The Worst Person in the World” (Neon)
  3. “A Hero” (Amazon Studios)
  4. “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  5. “Titane” (Neon)

Alternates: “Drive My Car” (Sideshow and Janus Films), “Compartment No. 6” (Sony Pictures Classics), “I’m Your Man” (Bleecker Street), “Lamb” (A24), “Spencer” (Neon), “Bergman Island” (IFC Films), “The Souvenir Part II” (A24), “Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn” (Magnolia Pictures)

2022 Academy Awards Predictions