Final Predictions for the Golden Globes: A Night Made for Streamers and Chadwick Boseman?

The Hollywood Foreign Press Assn.'s annual gala will matter more than normal in this unconventional year.

Final Golden Globes Predictions
Illustration: Variety; Photo: Image Group LA/HFPA

Believe it or not, the Golden Globes will wield even more influence than usual this year. With Oscar voting for nominees set to take place March 5-10, the Feb. 28 Globes ceremony falls just five days before Academy members receive their ballots.

The Globes are going to carry more weight because the normal all-telling industry groups — such as the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, the American Society of Cinematographers and BAFTA — will announce their nominations in the middle of the Oscar voting window. And American Cinema Editors, always a strong indicator for the best picture nominees and winners, will announce its noms after the voting period has closed on March 11.

Whichever films and performances the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. selects will have an impact on Academy voters, since they won’t have ballots in their possession, and the Globes will be the last televised industry event to take place before they receive them. A win at that ceremony for an underdog film could nudge Oscar voters to check out that screener before making their choices.

Here are my final predictions for the winners of the 78th Golden Globes. You can see the full rankings on the individual Golden Globes predictions pages.

Motion Picture (Drama) — “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Nomadland” could make history as the first film directed by a woman to win the best picture drama prize.

Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical) — “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
It would be the first comedy sequel to win the category since the animated “Toy Story 2,” and the first film from a streaming platform to win the same.

Motion Picture (Animated) – “Soul” (Pixar)
Disney Plus will celebrate its first Globe win.

Motion Picture (Foreign Language) – “Another Round” (Denmark)
It would mark the fourth win for Denmark, following “Ordet” (1955), “Pelle the Conqueror” (1987) and “In a Better World” (2010).

Actor (Drama) – Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
The late actor would be the second posthumous winner for lead actor in a drama after Peter Finch for “Network” (1976).

Actor (Comedy or Musical) – Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
Cohen would be the first actor to win for a sequel, playing the same character.

Actress (Drama) – Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
Mulligan would be the first British-born female actor to win this award since Kate Winslet for “Revolutionary Road” (2008).

Actress (Comedy or Musical) – Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
She would be the third person to win the award for a debut performance following Barbra Streisand in “Funny Girl” (1968) and Julie Andrews in “Mary Poppins” (1964).

Supporting Actor (Motion Picture) – Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
If Cohen managed to win the category — and for “Borat 2” — he’d be the first male actor to win two acting awards on the same night. Four women have achieved the feat: Sigourney Weaver in 1983, Joan Plowright in 1993, Helen Mirren in 2007 and Kate Winslet in 2008.

Supporting Actress (Motion Picture) – Olivia Colman, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
If she wins here and for her performance in “The Crown,” she will be five for five at the Golden Globes.

Director — Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Zhao would be the second woman director winner after Barbra Streisand for 1983’s “Yentl” (Streisand did not go on to receive an Oscar nomination).

Screenplay — Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Sorkin is already the most-nominated screenwriter in this category’s history; if he wins, he’ll join Robert Bolt and Quentin Tarantino as the most awarded, with three wins.

Original Score – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “Mank” (Netflix)
Former winners for “The Social Network” (2010), if they win for “Mank,” they will be the first composers honored for a black-and-white film since 2011’s “The Artist.”

Original Song – “Tigress & Tweed,” “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (Hulu)
Andra Day would be the first winner in this category for a streamer, and would mark the third time a team of Globe-winning Black songwriters failed to garner an Oscar nomination, since she failed to make the shortlist.

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2021 Golden Globes Final Predictions (TV)