Of course, the box-office success and general popularity of a film has very little relation to its chances of winning a trophy at the Academy Awards. Odds-makers and other prognosticators (including Variety‘s Marc Malkin) pick Sam Mendes’ “1917” — which comes in at No. 3 on the YouTube trailer ranking — as the favorite leading into the 92nd Oscars on Feb. 9.
YouTube is promoting the rankings to underscore the idea that the a film’s box-office success is positively correlated to the number of views the trailer has on the video platform. About 78% of YouTube users say that watching a trailer helps them decide what movies to watch, according to a survey conducted by marker-research firm Ipsos.
For what they’re worth, here are YouTube’s rankings of the nine films nominated for best picture, and estimated box-office haul (with a link to each movie’s official trailer in its title):
|Rank||Movie||Studio||Views*||Box Office Earnings**|
|2||Once Upon a Time in Hollywood||Sony Pictures Entertainment||33,137,366||$373,951,066|
|6||Ford v Ferrari||20th Century Studios||15,010,491||$222,092,024|
|7||Little Women||Sony Pictures Entertainment||14,325,563||$164,243,733|
* Methodology: Global views count from trailer’s release through Jan. 26, 2020. To be eligible for inclusion, trailers must be for movies nominated in the Oscars’ best picture category. Ranked by global lifetime views on the film’s studio YouTube channels and some of the most popular trailer aggregators.
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** Source: Data from Box Office Mojo from U.S. and international markets to correspond with global views of the trailer.
*** Netflix films received limited box office revenues because the company gave them limited theatrical releases.