“Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom” is heading for a sturdy $133 million opening weekend at 4,475 North American locations, early estimates showed Friday.
The Universal-Amblin Entertainment release is performing in line with recent expectations, which have ranged between $130 million and $140 million. Thursday night previews generated a solid $15.3 million, which is counted as contributing to a $54 million opening day on Friday.
Disney-Pixar’s second weekend of “Incredibles 2” is pegged to finish the frame with about $80 million, which would give the animated comedy a blockbuster 10-day total of around $350 million — a domestic milestone crossed by only 46 other films.
The fifth film in the “Jurassic” franchise carries a production budget of $170 million. The tentople began its overseas rollout two weeks ago and has already pocketed $466 million from 51 international markets, led by $170 million in China. Reviews have been mixed for “Fallen Kingdom,” which currently holds a 53% score on Rotten Tomatoes.
Set four years after the events of “Jurassic World,” “Fallen Kingdom” follows Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard’s characters as they attempt to save the remaining dinosaurs on Isla Nublar before a volcanic eruption. J.A. Bayona directed from a script by “Jurassic World” helmer Colin Trevorrow and Derek Connolly. Trevorrow also executive produced alongside Steven Spielberg.
“Jurassic World” bowed in 2015 with a stunning $208.8 million domestic opening weekend and became the first movie to generate over $500 million worldwide in a single frame. It went on to earn $1.7 billion worldwide, including $652 million in North America, and is still the sixth-highest-grossing film ever at the domestic box office.
Should the $133 million estimate for “Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom” hold, it will come in around 2016’s “Suicide Squad,” now in 27th place on the domestic opening list.
The earnings potential for “Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom” may be held down by “Incredibles 2,” which had been pegged to earn between $75 million and $90 million this weekend. The animated comedy over-performed last weekend with $183 million, the eighth-best domestic debut of all time. If the $80 million projection holds, “Incredibles 2” would decline about 56% and post the seventh-highest domestic second weekend of all time.
Warner Bros.’ third weekend of heist movie “Ocean’s 8” will lead the rest of the pack in third with about $10 million, followed by the second weekend of its R-rated comedy “Tag” with about $7 million. “Ocean’s 8” has grossed $88.7 million domestically in its first two weeks.
Fox’s sixth weekend of “Deadpool 2” and Disney’s fifth weekend of “Solo: A Star Wars Story” will be battling for fifth place with about $5 million each. “Deadpool 2” should top the $300 million domestic milestone this weekend, becoming the 76th title to do so.
“Solo,” which has been a major disappointment for Disney, will edge past the $200 million mark during the frame. By contrast, 2015’s “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” had generated a domestic gross of $852 million after its first five weekends. “The Force Awakens” is the top domestic grosser of all time with $936 million; last year’s “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” is in eighth place at $620 million; and 2016’s “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” is in 10th with $532 million.
The weekend will also mark the first time that two films have debuted back to back with $100 million-plus openings during non-holiday weekends.
Back-to-back $100 million-plus debuts have occurred twice on holiday weekends. In 2007 when “Shrek the Third” opened to $121.6 million during May 18-20 and “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” recorded $114.7 million (Friday-Sunday) and $139.8 million (Friday-Monday) over Memorial Day; and in 2018, when “Deadpool 2” grossed $125 million during May 18-20 and “Solo: A Star Wars Story” grossed $84.4 million (Friday-Sunday) and $103.0 million (Friday-Monday) over Memorial Day.