Last year’s Golden Globes ceremony was a historical one on the film side. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” won a record-breaking seven awards, a clean sweep of every category for which it was nominated. But you can expect things to revert back to the usual wealth-spreading this year, as the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. is primed to hand out baubles for the 75th time on a ceremony broadcast right in the thick of Oscar voting.
It’s always a little weird picking the Globe winners, though. The HFPA can be a fickle group, bending with the breeze at times. It’s a small, tight-knit organization and voters are hyper-aware of how they’re perceived. So every year it’s a moving target.
Here are our best guesses on where the group’s chips may ultimately fall. Check out the show Sunday night to see how right (or wrong) we were.
Best Picture – Drama
Popular on Variety
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” is said to be an overall favorite with the group and could easily take this. “The Post,” meanwhile, is a topical drama that could draw plenty of votes. But the momentum is with “The Shape of Water,” and the HFPA pays attention to where the breeze is blowing, so we’ll go with the nominations leader.
Prediction: “The Shape of Water”
Best Picture – Comedy or Musical
“Get Out” stirred a lot of controversy by its very inclusion in this category, and there are plenty in the group who feel it should have been in the drama field. That could divide sentiment as no one wants a repeat of a filmmaker mocking category placement on stage. There are multiple places to honor “Lady Bird,” so they could opt for something else, but we’ll call it for Greta Gerwig’s film.
Prediction: “Lady Bird”
Best Actor – Drama
While “Darkest Hour” star Gary Oldman has become a clear consensus choice on the critics’ circuit and has a solid path to the Oscar, his past remarks about the HFPA still sting for some. Timothée Chalamet, meanwhile, presents an opportunity for voters to fill the kingmaker role they relish. So we’ll go out on a bit of a limb here.
Prediction: Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Best Actor – Comedy or Musical
Many in the group are said to love James Franco’s portrait of Tommy Wiseau and the making of disasterpiece “The Room.” But this is also the only other place to honor “Get Out” if not in best picture, so Daniel Kaluuya could pull a lot of votes, too.
Prediction: James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Best Actress – Drama
Again, they love “Three Billboards” and it will be pulling votes throughout the ballot. This category is the easiest place to chalk it up, however, even if “The Shape of Water” star Sally Hawkins is outpacing everyone else on the critics’ circuit.
Prediction: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
Unsurprisingly, this boils down to Saoirse Ronan versus Margot Robbie. “Lady Bird” will have more shots at recognition than “I, Tonya,” so we’ll go with Margot Robbie.
Prediction: Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Best Supporting Actor
Watch for them to build on the stunt of nominating Christopher Plummer (“All the Money in the World”) and straight up hand him the trophy here. Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”), meanwhile, is the critics’ awards leader. But to reiterate, “Three Billboards” is popular with voters and this is another reasonable place to recognize it.
Prediction: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Best Supporting Actress
The same logic governing our comedy lead actress pick is in effect here, so we’ll choose the inverse and go with critics’ champ Laurie Metcalf. But Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) is formidable, particularly if Saoirse Ronan is their choice in lead.
Prediction: Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Best Animated Film
Watch for Martin McDonagh (“Three Billboards”), or even Christopher Nolan, as “Dunkirk” will surely walk away with something. And Steven Spielberg (“The Post”) is the star director of the group; they like their stars. Ultimately, Guillermo del Toro ought to make a fine choice for a film they clearly responded to.
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
Without a “Get Out” to make the choice clear (in the context of the season, that is), this could go a number of ways. The tug-of-war between a number of films plays out here. But they often go with work that screams WRITING, so that leaves Martin McDonagh or HFPA-favored son Aaron Sorkin. We’ll go with the former, but “Lady Bird” is a very real possibility, too.
Prediction: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Best Original Score
“Phantom Thread” or “The Shape of Water” could bubble up here, but again, “Dunkirk” isn’t likely to go home empty-handed. Hans Zimmer would make a fine representative.
Best Original Song
This feels like a good opportunity to get a star like Mary J. Blige on the stage. Though admittedly, there are other stars in the mix, like Nick Jonas (“Ferdinand”) and Mariah Carey (“The Star”). “Mudbound” has the gravitas of being an actual player in the season beyond the Globes, however.
Prediction: “Mighty River” from “Mudbound
Best Foreign Language Film
It might be hard to pass up an opportunity to have Angelina Jolie make a few remarks, particularly since her film has been eliminated from the Oscar competition. Word is they’re not too high on “The Square,” but beyond that, the category is a bit of a mystery.
Prediction: “First They Killed My Father”