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What Analysts Are Predicting for Black Friday and Cyber Monday

It’s Black Friday weekend, and if you’re looking to snag a deal, you’re not alone — retail analysts predict more than 164 million people will be shopping in the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. And while door-buster deals at the mall and stores like Best Buy and Target are still popular, more and more consumers will be shopping from the comforts of home this year.

New research from Adobe Analytics shows that $23 billion will be exchanged online between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, with Cyber Monday expected to set a record as the largest — and fastest-growing — online shopping day of the year, with $7.8 billion in sales — up 17.6% from last year.

Both traditional retailers (like Macy’s and Walmart) and “e-tailers” (like Amazon and Zappos) are ready for the online windfall, with sites releasing hundreds of deals in advance this week, in an attempt to get a jump start on the competition. Among the early deals: Amazon is offering up to 50% off its family of Alexa-enabled devices. Walmart, meantime, released its “Black Friday buy now” deals days in advance, which include deep discounts on tablets, laptops, and toys. Even big-name stores like Gap are offering an incentive to shop online. The clothing retailer is slashing 50% off everything with an extra 10% off online.

According to Adobe Analytics, the most anticipated items this year include 4K TVs, retro video games, consoles, and toys like Pomsies (an interactive plush animal), L.O.L. Surprise!Fortnite Monopoly, and Hatchimals. Popular gaming franchises like “Tekken” and “Final Fantasy VII” are expected to perform well for the second consecutive year. And top electronics on sale include digital cameras, Amazon Fire TV, and Amazon Echo.

As for the discounts to expect: Adobe Analytics says shoppers will see an average of 16% off computers, 22% off televisions, and 33% off tablets on Black Friday. Shoppers can find the best deals for sporting goods on Thanksgiving Day (13%). The day before Cyber Monday will see the best deals for apparel (22%) and appliances (18%), and the biggest discounts for toys will happen on Cyber Monday (an average savings of 19%).

“We are on track for another blockbuster season for e-commerce, as consumers increasingly favor the convenience of shopping online over making the trip to stores,” says Taylor Schreiner, director of Adobe Digital Insights. “Big discounts are on the horizon in the coming days, and shoppers need not wait until Cyber Monday for some of the best deals.”

Black Friday is traditionally seen as the kickoff to the busy holiday shopping season. According to Adobe, nearly one out of $5 this holiday season will be spent between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, generating $23.4 billion or 19% of total online sales.

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