Germany’s ProSiebenSat.1 Revises Q3 Forecasts Downward With TV Ad Revenue Static

Courtesy of ProSiebenSat1

German media giant ProSiebenSat.1 Group has revised its third-quarter forecasts following indications that expectations of improved ad revenue for the Broadcasting German-speaking segment of the media group are “unlikely to be met.” Despite that, the company still forecasts a mid-single-digit percentage growth for Q3 compared to 2016.

In a trading statement Tuesday, ProSiebenSat.1 said revenues for its Broadcasting German-speaking business will probably see a single-digit percentage decline year-on-year in Q3 2017 from last year’s €472 million ($568.3 million). This is due to new estimates that, based on early customer feedback, September’s TV advertising revenues will fail to meet previous expectations. September is “the most important month of the current reporting period in terms of revenue contribution,” according to the statement.

Overall projections for the group’s revenue remain positive thanks to “continued positive development of the TV distribution, content production and digital activities.” ProSiebenSat.1 expects total group revenues for the quarter to see a mid-single digit percentage improvement over Q3 2016, when revenues hit €857 million ($1.03 billion).

The statement says the German media giant is targeting “stable adjusted EBITDA in Q3.” Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization hit €202 million ($243.1 million) for the third quarter of 2016.

The group posted double-digit growth in the first quarter of 2017, with revenues hitting €910 million ($1.095 billion), up 13% year-on-year from 2016’s €802 million ($965.1 million). Second-quarter revenues were up 9% year-on-year at €962 million ($1.16 billion).

ProSiebenSat.1 remains bullish that a “back-end loaded TV advertising spending pattern for 2017 with a notable improvement in the fourth quarter” will be forthcoming.

The group is now forecasting full-year results for the German TV advertising market to remain at “about the prior year’s level,” having previously forecast a 1.5%-2.5% growth in the sector.

Including all its businesses ProSiebenSat.1 continues to predict strong year-on-year growth for the full year and is holding to its previously published financial targets for 2017. The group had targeted “at least a high-single digit percentage increase” in consolidated revenues, which finished at €3.8 billion ($4.6 billion) in 2016, with adjusted EBITDA and net income exceeding 2016 results. Adjusted EBITDA was €1.02 billion ($1.2 billion) in 2016 with adjusted net income €536 million ($645.5 million).

The company is reviewing whether to consolidate the Broadcasting German-speaking and Digital Entertainment businesses into a single entertainment business. The media giant is also reviewing its content production and commerce businesses, discussing possible co-investment opportunities with third parties.