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Fall Broadcast Winners and Losers: From ‘Good Doctor’ to ‘Me, Myself, and I’

It’s decision time for the networks: With fall season well underway, the broadcast nets already have a clear sense of which of their new shows are working — and which aren’t. While they don’t have to commit yet to a second-season renewal (though some already have), they do need to decide whether to order more episodes to fill out the back half of the season, or cut their losses to make room for their new midseason projects.

ABC scored an early hit with “The Good Doctor,” while CBS’ “Young Sheldon” put up “Walking Dead”-esque numbers when it premiered. But others shows landed with a bit more of a thud (sorry, “Ten Days in the Valley”), with several already essentially cancelled.

As the networks prepare to roll out their midseason lineup, here’s a look at which shows will live to see 2018.

(All ratings are Nielsen’s Live+Same Day unless otherwise noted.)

SETTLE IN FOR SEASON TWO:

“The Gifted” (FOX): The action-drama series, produced by 20th Century Fox Television in association with Marvel Television, is a lock for a Season 2 renewal, according to sources. Not surprising, given the promotional push Fox has given the show. The show is currently averaging a 1.1 and 3.6 million viewers per episode, and has shown solid lift in delayed viewing. In the most recent Nielsen Live+7 data, “The Gifted” went from a 1.0 to a 2.1 for a 110 percent gain in the key demo. That same episode also rose 84 percent in total viewers.

“Young Sheldon” (CBS): The “Big Bang Theory” prequel was all but guaranteed a full season at CBS, but its stellar ratings sealed the deal. The series premiere, which aired as a special preview in September behind the Season 11 premiere of “Big Bang Theory,” retained 98 percent of its total lead-in audience from its parent program, nabbing a 3.8 rating and 17.2 million viewers. CBS ordered a full season the next day. The show debuted in its new Thursday post-“Big Bang” timeslot in early November, and is currently averaging a 2.8 and 14.1 million viewers after three episodes. Don’t be surprised when this one lands a Season 2 renewal.

“The Orville” (FOX): Seth MacFarlane’s “Star Trek” show that is not a “Star Trek” show has already been renewed for a second season. The sci-fi dramedy has performed well in its Thursday timeslot, where it is up against NFL football and ABC’s “Scandal.” It has also shown solid growth in Live+7, with the episode for which the most recent data is available jumping 92 percent in the demo and 75 percent in total viewers.

“Will & Grace” (NBC): The Peacock’s revival of the iconic sitcom was picked up for a second season before the first crop of new episodes had even aired. The premiere drew an impressive 3.0 rating and 10.2 million viewers. And while it has yet to come close to those numbers since, the first season is still averaging a respectable 2.0 and 7.2 million viewers per episode.

“The Good Doctor” (ABC): One of the undisputed freshman hits of the fall was quickly picked up for a full season after airing just two episodes. The medical drama starring Freddie Highmore, Antonia Thomas, and Nicholas Gonzalez came roaring out of the gate with a 2.2 rating and 11.2 million viewers. It has been consistently among the top-rated and most-watched broadcast shows ever since. While it has not officially been renewed, it is all but guaranteed another season at the network.

“SEAL Team” (CBS): CBS picked up the military drama for a full season in early October. It stars David Boreanaz–who this year entered his twentieth straight year of being on television–as the leader of the titular elite military unit. It is the second highest-rated and second most-watched CBS freshman show, behind only “Young Sheldon.” It is currently averaging a 1.1 rating and 7.7 million viewers. Like “The Good Doctor,” the show has not been officially renewed but most likely will be.

FULL-SEASON AHEAD:

“The Brave” (NBC): The military drama led by Anne Heche and Mike Vogel is looking good for a full season pick up, sources say. One of three military dramas to premiere this fall, “The Brave” has not matched the ratings success of “SEAL Team” on CBS, but has still been solid enough in its timeslot. The show is averaging a 1.1 rating and 5.2 million viewers.

“Dynasty” (The CW): Another of this season’s reboots, the reimagined “Dynasty” was picked up for a full season last week. Paired with “Riverdale” on Wednesday nights, “Dynasty” is averaging a 0.2 rating and 0.84 million viewers after six episodes. While not spectacular, the show is in keeping with the network’s recent attempts to grow its female audience after years of pushing for a male skew with superhero series such as “The Flash” and “Arrow.”

“Ghosted” (FOX): The sci-fi comedy series starring Craig Robinson and Adam Scott is looking good for an additional episode order, sources say, adding that the show’s writers have already begun work on getting ahead of the current episode count. The show has been a stable performer in its Sunday timeslot, currently averaging a 1.2 rating and just under 3 million viewers per episode. That puts it on par with fellow Sunday comedies “Bob’s Burgers” and “Family Guy,” and above Fox comedies “Last Man on Earth,” “The Mick,” and “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” for the season thus far.

“Kevin Probably Saves the World” (ABC): The dramedy starring Jason Ritter and Kimberly Hebert Gregory recently received an order for three additional episodes. While that does bode well for the freshman series, it is not a guarantee of anything beyond that. The show has not been a particular ratings breakout in its Tuesday timeslot, currently averaging a 0.8 rating and 3.2 million viewers.

“Law & Order True Crime”: Sources say this new entry into Dick Wolf’s storied franchise is a toss up at this point. On one hand, NBC’s longstanding ties with Wolf certainly boost the anthology series’ chances of scoring a second season. On the other hand, the series has failed to generate much buzz in the ratings. The eight-episode first season averaged a 1.1 rating and 4.6 million viewers going into its finale.

“9JKL” (CBS): The comedy series based on the experiences of star Mark Feuerstein is most likely going to get picked up for a full season. Sources say writers on the show have been gearing up for a back order, prepping scripts for more episodes. The show opened well with a 1.6 rating and 8.2 million viewers. But it — along with the rest of CBS’ Monday comedy block — saw a fairly steep drop off once “Big Bang Theory” moved to Thursdays. Nevertheless, “9JKL” is currently averaging a 1.1 and 6.1 million viewers.

“SWAT” (CBS): The reboot of the classic cop series now starring “Criminal Minds” alum Shemar Moore is looking good for a full season pick up, sources say. Much like “Wisdom of the Crowd,” the show has already shown to be a solid ratings performer if not an outright breakout. After airing two episodes, the show is averaging a 1.1 rating and 6.7 million viewers.

“Wisdom of the Crowd” (CBS): Word on the fate of this freshman drama has been hushed of late, due to series star Jeremy Piven being accused of groping a woman while he was working on HBO’s “Entourage.” Piven has denied those allegations. But the show has been a solid performer for CBS on Sunday nights. It is currently averaging a 1.0 rating and 7.7 million viewers per episode, putting it on par with other CBS dramas.

THE END IS NEAR:

“Marvel’s Inhumans” (ABC): One would think that due to the ABC-Disney-Marvel connection this series would be guaranteed a second season, but that may not be the case. Due to the poor reception the show has received both critically and in the ratings, sources say it may not last beyond its freshman run. Airing on Fridays, the show is currently averaging a 0.6 rating and 2.6 million viewers. It also grossed a modest $2.6 million during a brief IMAX run in September, earning a paltry 8 percent approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

“The Mayor” (ABC): The comedy series received an order for additional scripts last week, but the good news may stop there. According to sources, there have been issues behind the scenes on the show, to the point that “Black-ish” executive producer Larry Wilmore–who is under an overall deal with ABC Studios–was brought in to get things back on track. Due to Wilmore’s other commitments, however, he was only able to work on four episodes. ABC is said to love the show conceptually and is particularly taken with series lead Brandon Michael Hall, but its lackluster ratings may doom it to cancellation. It is currently averaging a 0.8 and just under 3 million viewers.

“Me, Myself, and I” (CBS): The comedy starring Bobby Moynihan, Jack Dylan Grazer, and  John Larroquette as the same character at different stages of his life is a goner at CBS. The network announced on Nov. 1 that they were taking the show off of the schedule with no current plans for it to return. It opened well in September to a 1.6 rating and 7.5 million viewers, but quickly fell off from there. The last episode to air drew just a 0.7 and 3.9 million viewers.

“Ten Days in the Valley” (ABC): This mystery thriller starring Kyra Sedgwick is all but dead at ABC. The network announced they would move the show from Sunday nights to Saturdays after four episodes had aired, making an eventual cancellation a certainty. The network has also put the show on hiatus for the entire month of November, with new episodes airing in its new timeslot beginning on Dec. 16. The show failed to gain any traction early on, opening to an anemic 0.5 rating and 3.4 million viewers, with the ratings slipping further from there week by week.

“Valor”: The season’s third military drama is not in good shape. According to sources, the show will most likely not make it beyond its freshman season, despite CW head Mark Pedowitz’ longtime efforts to bring a military-themed series to the network. It is currently averaging a mere 0.2 rating and 1 million viewers per episode.

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