CBS’ “SEAL Team” and Fox’s “The Gifted” are the two most anticipated new broadcast shows of the 2017-18 season, according to an analysis by Civic Science. The study, presented in a webinar with Cox Reps Wednesday to an audience of network and advertising executives, is the result of a psychographic-based web and mobile survey measuring audience interest in 14 new broadcast shows across five networks.
Survey participants were each asked how likely he or she was to watch a particular show based on early buzz from broadcast upfront presentations and related announcements this month. Using those responses, Civic Science found “SEAL Team” to have the highest audience-intent score of any of the 14 shows considered. The military drama was followed by “The Gifted,” “The Orville” (Fox), “The Brave” (NBC), “The Gospel of Kevin” (ABC), “Valor” (CW), “Champions” (NBC), “Wisdom of the Crowd” (CBS), “The Good Doctor” (ABC), “Me, Myself & I” (CBS), “The Resident” (Fox), “Dynasty” (CW), “Reverie” (NBC), and “The Mayor” (ABC).
Civic Science also looked at demographic and psychographic profiles for each show — the latter classifying likely viewers based on their attitudes, aspirations, and other psychological criteria.
“The days of big mainstream success stories — or relying on obtuse 25-54 male demos — are gone,” said Civic Science CEO John Dick. “The winners are the shows that engage a strong niche audience. That’s why the psychographic profiling of viewers is so important.”
“Champions,” “Dynasty,” “The Good Doctor,” “The Mayor,” and “The Resident” were found to be heavily female-skewing series. The probable “Dynasty” viewer was found to be 48% more likely than average to be African-American; 44% more likely to be a Carrie Underwood fan; and 64% more likely to be a Drake fan. The likely “Mayor” viewer was 244% more likely to “love” Adam Levine.
More gender-balanced shows, which skewed slightly female, included “The Gifted,” “The Gospel of Kevin,” “Reverie,” “SEAL Team,” and “Wisdom of the Crowd.” The probable viewer of “The Gifted” was found to be 134% more likely than average to be “very bullish” about the U.S. stock market right now and 44% more likely to watch CBS more often than any of the other major television networks. The probable “Me, Myself & I” viewer was 95% less likely to have cable or broadband service. The likely “Reverie” viewer was 43% more likely to “strongly support” the legalization of recreational marijuana.
Male-skewing shows were “The Brave,” “The Orville,” and “Valor.” The expected “Orville” viewer was 23% more likely than average to be a registered Democrat and 146% more likely to smoke cigarettes “some days.” The “Valor” viewer was 108% more likely to be “very interested” in foods containing probiotics.
The analysis found that interest tended to be highest and most diverse in action dramas in the coming season. It also found that NBC’s shows tended to appeal to the youngest potential audience.