Publicly, studio executives tend to be a rosy bunch, predicting that each year’s crop of movies will be better than that which preceded it. But behind closed doors, few in the business were expecting much from 2016.
When the final numbers are tallied, the global box office will probably fall short of last year’s record-breaking $38.9 billion. Most observers expect ticket sales to fall roughly 2% to just over $38 billion. That decline is reason for some alarm, particularly as the shortfall is largely attributable to a slowdown in China. After years of explosive growth, in which returns were expanding at a 40% clip annually, revenue in China was essentially flat in 2016 — a disappointment for the world’s second-largest film market, which had been expected to surpass the U.S. in terms of revenue in a matter of months.
“As China goes, so goes the international marketplace,” notes Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at ComScore.
There are worries that Donald Trump’s presidency could have a further chilling effect. Trump has been a proponent of stricter tariffs on foreign goods and has often cast China as an adversary.
“Who knows what our trade policies will be like in a year?” Dergarabedian asks.
If Trump is true to his word, there could be some type of retaliation from China at a time when Hollywood is increasingly reliant on Chinese financing and viewership. In particular, there are concerns about a move toward tighter restrictions on the number of U.S. films that are allowed to screen in the country.
But many studio executives remain bullish on the long-term prospects of Sino-Tinseltown relations.
“In China, there has been a slowdown off a base of massive growth, but it’s still the biggest of the markets where we or any studio does business, and it will still be on pace to displace the U.S. in box office, though maybe not as quickly as people thought,” says Dave Hollis, Disney’s global distribution chief.
China aside, there is a sense that 2016 could have been worse. “Deadpool” and “Zootopia” were blockbusters that few saw coming. And while “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” and “Finding Dory” weren’t hits on the level of 2015 smashes such as “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” and “Jurassic World,” they resonated with global audiences.
“If you look at the slate last year, it played pretty well,” says Eric Handler, an analyst with MKM Partners. “The numbers would suggest there might be a modest decline in attendance, but the movie business is still holding in quite well.”
Across the globe, the story was one of slowdowns, stall-outs, and surges. Spain began to rebound after tough economic times, with ticket sales rising 5%, and France had its second-best performance in 50 years. Yet other major markets had problems: Revenue fell by double digits in Germany, and growth stalled in South Korea.
In some cases, the declines can be chalked up to weaker local product. In others, the studio blockbusters didn’t excite as they had in previous years. (Studios point to parts of Asia and Latin America as regions in which Hollywood products are still finding a warm reception.) There were also currency headaches; a strong U.S. dollar meant that Europe and Russia failed to contribute as much to the returns of major blockbusters as they once did.
Still, there is optimism, fueled by a look at the slate for 2017, which will see sequels to “Star Wars,” “Transformers,” “Guardians of the Galaxy,” “Pirates of the Caribbean,” “The Fast and the Furious,” “Despicable Me,” “Spider-Man,” and “Cars.” This Murderers’ Row has left analysts like Dergarabedian reaching for the perfect metaphor to encapsulate the moneymaking on the horizon.
“I call it the 100-year flood of movies,” he says.
Domestic Top 100 of 2016 | |||||
RANK | TITLE/DISTRIB | DOMESTIC B.O. | |||
1. | Finding Dory/Disney | $486,295,561 | |||
2. | Rogue One … */Disney | $408,235,850 | |||
3. | Captain America: Civil War/Disney | $408,084,349 | |||
4. | The Secret Life of Pets/U | $368,384,330 | |||
5. | The Jungle Book/Disney | $364,001,123 | |||
6. | Deadpool/Fox | $363,070,709 | |||
7. | Zootopia/Disney | $341,268,248 | |||
8. | Batman v Superman … /WB | $330,360,194 | |||
9. | Suicide Squad/WB | $325,100,054 | |||
10. | Star Wars: The Force …†/Disney | $284,694,956 | |||
11. | Doctor Strange*/Disney | $229,876,337 | |||
12. | Fantastic Beasts …*/WB | $222,675,573 | |||
13. | Moana*/Disney | $206,477,478 | |||
14. | The Revenant†/Fox | $182,765,375 | |||
15. | Jason Bourne/U | $162,434,410 | |||
16. | Star Trek Beyond/Par | $158,848,340 | |||
17. | X-Men: Apocalypse/Fox | $155,442,489 | |||
18. | Sing*/U | $152,853,995 | |||
19. | Trolls*/Fox | $150,130,292 | |||
20. | Kung Fu Panda 3/Fox | $143,528,619 | |||
21. | Ghostbusters/Sony | $128,344,089 | |||
22. | Central Intelligence/WB | $127,440,871 | |||
23. | The Legend of Tarzan/WB | $126,643,061 | |||
24. | Sully*/WB | $124,976,335 | |||
25. | Bad Moms/STX | $113,257,297 | |||
26. | The Angry Birds Movie/Sony | $107,506,776 | |||
27. | Independence Day: Resurgence/Fox | $103,144,286 | |||
28. | The Conjuring 2/WB | $102,470,008 | |||
29. | Sausage Party/Sony | $97,661,826 | |||
30. | The Magnificent Seven/Sony | $93,420,253 | |||
31. | Arrival*/Par | $91,676,099 | |||
32. | Ride Along 2/U | $91,221,830 | |||
33. | Don’t Breathe/Sony | $89,208,468 | |||
34. | Miss Peregrine’s Home … */Fox | $86,945,137 | |||
35. | The Accountant/WB/STX | $85,856,696 | |||
36. | Daddy’s Home†/Par | $85,672,859 | |||
37. | Teenage Mutant … Shadows/Par | $82,051,601 | |||
38. | The Purge: Election Year/U | $79,213,375 | |||
39. | Alice … Looking Glass/Disney | $77,041,381 | |||
40. | Pete’s Dragon/Disney | $76,233,151 | |||
41. | The Girl on the Train/U | $75,395,035 | |||
42. | Tyler Perry’s Boo! … /Lionsgate | $73,206,343 | |||
43. | Storks/WB | $72,414,850 | |||
44. | 10 Cloverfield Lane/Par | $72,082,998 | |||
45. | Lights Out/WB | $67,268,835 | |||
46. | Divergent … Allegiant/Lionsgate | $66,184,051 | |||
47. | Now You See Me 2/Lionsgate | $65,075,540 | |||
48. | Hacksaw Ridge*/Lionsgate | $64,463,214 | |||
49. | Ice Age: Collision Course/Fox | $64,063,008 | |||
50. | The Boss/U | $63,285,885 | |||
51. | London Has Fallen/Focus | $62,524,260 | |||
52. | Miracles From Heaven/Sony | $61,693,523 | |||
53. | Deepwater Horizon/Lionsgate | $61,433,527 | |||
54. | 10 Cloverfield Lane/Par | $59,689,605 | |||
55. | Jack Reacher: Never Go Back/Par | $58,546,937 | |||
56. | Me Before You/WB | $56,245,075 | |||
57. | The BFG/Disney | $55,483,770 | |||
58. | Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising/U | $55,455,765 | |||
59. | Passengers*/Sony | $55,380,209 | |||
60. | The Shallows/Sony | $55,121,623 | |||
61. | Barbershop: The Next Cut/WB | $54,030,051 | |||
62. | Office Christmas Party*/Par | $52,853,219 | |||
63. | Deepwater Horizon/Lionsgate | $49,815,176 | |||
64. | The Huntsman: Winter’s War/U | $48,390,190 | |||
65. | Kubo and the Two Strings/Focus | $48,023,088 | |||
66. | Warcraft/U | $47,365,290 | |||
67. | How to Be Single/WB | $46,843,513 | |||
68. | The Big Short†/Par | $46,264,692 | |||
69. | Mike and Dave Need … Dates/Fox | $46,009,673 | |||
70. | War Dogs/WB | $43,034,523 | |||
71. | Almost Christmas/U | $41,964,925 | |||
72. | Money Monster/Sony | $41,008,532 | |||
73. | The Hateful Eight†/Weinstein | $40,778,206 | |||
74. | Allied*/Par | $39,541,921 | |||
75. | Nerve/Lionsgate | $38,583,626 | |||
76. | Sisters†/U | $37,921,265 | |||
77. | Risen/Sony | $36,874,745 | |||
78. | Assassin’s Creed*/Fox | $36,415,167 | |||
79. | The Nice Guys/WB | $36,261,763 | |||
80. | The Boy/STX | $35,819,556 | |||
81. | Dirty Grandpa/Lionsgate | $35,593,113 | |||
82. | Ouija: Origin of Evil/U | $35,144,505 | |||
83. | The 5th Wave/Sony | $34,912,982 | |||
84. | Inferno*/Sony | $34,221,651 | |||
85. | Mother’s Day/Open Road | $32,492,859 | |||
86. | Gods of Egypt/Lionsgate | $31,153,464 | |||
87. | La La Land*/Lionsgate | $30,980,271 | |||
88. | Why Him?*/Fox | $30,633,916 | |||
89. | Hail, Caesar!/U | $30,498,085 | |||
90. | Alvin and the … Road Chip†/Fox | $30,311,560 | |||
91. | When the Bough Breaks/Sony | $29,740,655 | |||
92. | Zoolander 2/Par | $28,848,693 | |||
93. | Joy†/Fox | $28,141,138 | |||
94. | The Finest Hours/Disney | $27,569,558 | |||
95. | Florence Foster Jenkins/Par | $27,383,770 | |||
96. | Manchester by the Sea*/Roadside | $27,053,638 | |||
97. | Hell or High Water/Lionsgate | $27,007,844 | |||
98. | The Forest/Focus | $26,594,261 | |||
99. | Ben-Hur/Par | $26,410,477 | |||
100. | Fences*/Par | $26,330,971 | |||
*Still in release †2015 release; B.O. for 2016 only Source: comScore | |||||
Overseas Top 100 of 2016 | |||||
RANK | TITLE/COUNTRY OF ORIGIN IF NOT US/DISTRIBUTOR‡ | DOMESTIC B.O. | |||
1. | Captain America: Civil War/Disney | $706,890,721 | |||
2. | Zootopia/Disney | $661,089,557 | |||
3. | The Jungle Book/Disney | $583,232,229 | |||
4. | Finding Dory/Disney | $533,262,286 | |||
5. | Mei Ren Yu (The Mermaid)≈/China/Sony | $527,747,712 | |||
6. | Fantastic Beasts … Find Them*/WB | $525,438,290 | |||
7. | Batman v Superman … Justice/WB | $501,703,375 | |||
8. | The Secret Life of Pets/U | $496,435,072 | |||
9. | Doctor Strange/Disney | $406,091,746 | |||
10. | Deadpool/Fox | $399,221,524 | |||
11. | Suicide Squad/WB | $377,788,370 | |||
12. | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story*/Disney | $368,200,066 | |||
13. | Warcraft/U | $367,716,567 | |||
14. | X-Men: Apocalypse/Fox | $361,889,064 | |||
15. | Kung Fu Panda 3/Fox | $358,066,215 | |||
16. | The Revenant†/Fox | $332,986,761 | |||
17. | Ice Age: Collision Course/Fox | $329,055,753 | |||
18. | Your Name≈/Japan/Funimation | $316,217,502 | |||
19. | Star Wars: The Force Awakens†/Disney | $304,930,719 | |||
20. | Independence Day: Resurgence/Fox | $274,089,439 | |||
21. | Now You See Me 2/Lionsgate | $260,582,570 | |||
22. | Jason Bourne/U | $244,009,300 | |||
23. | The Angry Birds Movie/Sony | $233,952,873 | |||
24. | Alice Through the … Glass/Disney | $216,829,835 | |||
25. | The Legend of Tarzan/WB | $199,214,394 | |||
26. | Moana*/Disney | $194,527,863 | |||
27. | Miss Peregrine’s … Children/Fox | $188,182,975 | |||
28. | The Monkey King 2≈/China/China Lion | $185,817,720 | |||
29. | Bridget Jones’s Baby/UK-Ireland/U | $185,045,005 | |||
30. | The Conjuring 2/WB | $184,392,860 | |||
31. | Inferno/Sony | $178,253,470 | |||
32. | … Vegas to Macau III≈/HK/Asia Releasing | $175,954,957 | |||
33. | Trolls/Fox | $175,922,688 | |||
34. | Operation Mekong≈/China/Well Go USA | $173,137,278 | |||
35. | Star Trek Beyond/Par | $170,042,178 | |||
36. | The Great Wall*/U | $157,845,108 | |||
37. | Time Raiders≈/China/Asia Releasing | $145,721,484 | |||
38. | Teenage Mutant Ninja … Shadows/Par | $144,477,961 | |||
39. | Me Before You/WB | $141,746,431 | |||
40. | The BFG≈/Disney | $140,981,043 | |||
41. | Skiptrace≈/Multiple | $134,345,427 | |||
42. | Ip Man 3†≈/HK/Well Go USA | $130,772,602 | |||
43. | London Has Fallen≈/UK-Ireland/Focus | $130,536,484 | |||
44. | Alvin and the … Road Chip†/Fox | $119,379,748 | |||
45. | … Mr. Right 2≈/China/Asia Releasing | $118,903,184 | |||
46. | I Belonged to You≈/China/China Lion | $117,556,929 | |||
47. | Gods of Egypt/Lionsgate | $112,973,396 | |||
48. | The Huntsman: Winter’s War/U | $112,667,823 | |||
49. | Cold War 2≈/HK/Well Go USA | $111,364,991 | |||
50. | Train to Busan≈/S.Korea/Well Go USA | $111,192,504 | |||
51. | Divergent Series: Allegiant/Lionsgate | $109,492,675 | |||
52. | Sing*/U | $105,084,799 | |||
53. | Storks*/WB | $101,364,223 | |||
54. | Sully*/WB | $99,532,910 | |||
55. | Mechanic: Resurrection/Lionsgate | $96,757,505 | |||
56. | Ghostbusters/Sony | $95,947,461 | |||
57. | The Girl on the Train/U | $94,781,280 | |||
58. | The Hateful Eight†/Weinstein | $93,961,269 | |||
59. | Line Walker≈/HK/Asia Releasing | $90,627,572 | |||
60. | Jack Reacher: Never Go Back/Par | $83,627,558 | |||
61. | Big Fish & Begonia≈/China/Multiple | $81,827,374 | |||
62. | Central Intelligence/WB | $81,500,697 | |||
63. | Hacksaw Ridge*≈/Australia/Lionsgate | $80,116,472 | |||
64. | The Good Dinosaur†/Disney | $79,597,976 | |||
65. | Shin Godzilla≈/Japan/Funimation | $79,277,989 | |||
66. | Railroad Tigers*≈/China/Well Go USA | $78,511,934 | |||
67. | The 5th Wave /Sony | $70,994,942 | |||
68. | Passengers*/Sony | $70,138,668 | |||
69. | Lights Out/WB | $68,532,157 | |||
70. | Detective … Nightmare≈/Japan/Multiple | $67,303,533 | |||
71. | I Am Not … Bovary≈/China/Well Go USA | $67,292,317 | |||
72. | One Piece Film: Gold≈/Japan/Funimation | $66,589,094 | |||
73. | Bad Moms/STX | $64,558,312 | |||
74. | Sultan≈/India/Yash Raj | $64,465,705 | |||
75. | See You Tomorrow≈/HK/Multiple | $64,012,279 | |||
76. | Violent Prosecutor≈/S. Korea/Dreamwest | $63,592,088 | |||
77. | Pete’s Dragon/Disney | $63,023,710 | |||
78. | Don’t Breathe/Sony | $62,963,391 | |||
79. | The Magnificent Seven/Sony | $62,340,975 | |||
80. | How to Be Single/WB | $60,630,428 | |||
81. | The Shallows/Sony | $59,901,171 | |||
82. | Ben-Hur/Par | $58,673,155 | |||
83. | Dirty Grandpa≈/Lionsgate | $57,615,154 | |||
84. | Arrival*/Par | $56,857,296 | |||
85. | Age of Shadows (Mil Jeong)≈/S. Korea/CJ | $56,030,036 | |||
86. | L.O.R.D: Legend of … /China/Lionsgate | $55,254,999 | |||
87. | The Accountant/WB | $54,640,759 | |||
88. | Chongqing Hot Pot≈/China/China Lion | $54,196,084 | |||
89. | Deepwater Horizon/Lionsgate | $53,851,477 | |||
90. | The Big Short†/Par | $53,754,850 | |||
91. | Chinese Odyssey … End≈/China/Multiple | $52,890,135 | |||
92. | Tunnel≈/S. Korea/Well Go USA | $52,431,558 | |||
93. | Doraemon: Nobita and … ≈/Japan/Multiple | $51,991,295 | |||
94. | Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising/U | $51,277,247 | |||
95. | Luck-Key≈/S. Korea/Dreamwest | $50,318,046 | |||
96. | Daddy’s Home†/Par | $49,827,001 | |||
97. | Money Monster/Sony | $49,769,015 | |||
98. | The Bodyguard≈/China/Multiple | $49,521,624 | |||
99. | Spotlight†≈/Open Road | $49,211,690 | |||
100. | Operation Chromite≈/S. Korea/CJ | $48,815,605 | |||
*Still in release †release in 2015; B.O. for 2016 only ‡USA Distributor or multiple distributors ≈Unofficial Cume Source: comScore/td> | |||||
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