Disney/Pixar’s second weekend of “Finding Dory” will handily win at the U.S. box office with about $67 million, topping Fox’s opening of “Independence Day: Resurgence” at around $48 million, early estimates showed Friday.
“Dory” will see a 50 percent drop from its opening weekend, but will wind up with a robust 10-day total of more than $280 million. Should it top $70 million this weekend, it would be only the 12th title to do so in its second frame.
Blake Lively’s shark adventure “The Shallows” is projected to bring in about $13 million for Sony with a $6 million opening day on Friday. Matthew McConaughey’s “Free State of Jones” should see something in the $7 million to $8 million range for STX.
Fox’s “Independence Day: Resurgence,” had been forecast for an opening weekend of $50 million at 4,068 locations. It’s heading for an opening day of around $18 million.
“Independence Day: Resurgence,” directed by Roland Emmerich, carries a $165 million price tag. Emmerich brought back original cast members such as Jeff Goldblum and Bill Pullman, and added newcomers like Liam Hemsworth and Jessie Usher to the mix.
The original “Independence Day,” starring Will Smith, was an immense success two decades ago. It was the biggest movie of 1996 with a $306 million U.S. total and $817 million worldwide.
“Free State of Jones” had been expected to take in around $12 million at 2,815 locations but is likely to do significantly less. “Jones” stars Matthew McConaughey as the leader of an armed rebellion against the Confederacy. The film cost $50 million to make with STX bringing in partner IM Global to handle international rights.
Sony’s “The Shallows” follows Lively’s character as she battles for survival against a shark. It carries a $17 million price tag and had been looking at an opening of $7 million when it debuts on roughly 2,800 screens, but it looks likely to double that projection.
“The Shallows” will probably finish fourth behind the second weekend of New Line/Universal comedy “Central Intelligence,” which should wind up somewhere above $15 million.
Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at comScore, said the overall prospects for the weekend are decent.
“The summer and year to date box office got a nice boost last weekend with the massive success of ‘Finding Dory’ and this weekend aspires to keep the ball rolling with a strong second weekend for the money making forgetful fish and three very different wide release debuts including the two decades in the making follow up to ‘Independence Day’ that will all try to get attention in a very crowded start to the important Fourth-of-July corridor,” he noted.