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Golden Globes Predictions: Which Films Will Be Nominated?

The Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. will be announcing nominations in film and television categories for the 74th annual Golden Globe Awards next week. Frequently striking a balance between following the season’s script and going their own unique way (while, of course, being wooed this way and that by the studios in play), the organization puts on the biggest show in town next to the Oscars. So naturally, everyone wants a piece of that promotional action.

Which films will score with the group this year? Even with just around 90 members, it can be tricky to nail it down; a membership that small means a movie or performance could miss by mere votes despite appearing strong anecdotally. Here’s a best-guess assessment. Find out how right (or wrong) we are next week.

Click here for thoughts on the TV races.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
The best bet here is “Moonlight,” which is a strong contender to win. After that, “Hacksaw Ridge” and “Manchester by the Sea” have their champions, but a few detractors as well. Both should rally enough support for nominations. “Hidden Figures” was a late favorite, while there is a focused group of “Nocturnal Animal” fans in the HFPA trying to drive that through. Finally, Harvey Weinstein always finds a landing for his films, so expect “Lion” to turn up as well. Other films with support include “Hell or High Water” and “Captain Fantastic.”

Predictions:
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hidden Figures”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
alt. “Hell or High Water”

BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY or MUSICAL
“La La Land” is a lock and probably the overall favorite film in the group. After that, in the distance, are “Florence Foster Jenkins” and “20th Century Women” fan bases. They could get Warren Beatty on the show with a nomination here or in best actor, but members were so strapped for quality comedies that they may just grant it passage here. Peripheral possibilities include “The Edge of Seventeen,” “Hail, Caesar!,” “Love & Friendship” and “Sing Street.”

Predictions:
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“Hail, Caesar!”
“La La Land”
“Rules Don’t Apply”
“20th Century Women”
alt. “Love & Friendship”

BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Denzel Washington and Casey Affleck are the strongest contenders here, as they are in the Oscar race, with Andrew Garfield right in the thick of it, too. Many were delighted by “Captain Fantastic,” and that adoration could certainly show up here with a nomination for Viggo Mortensen. Tom Hanks, Jake Gyllenhaal and Brad Pitt, meanwhile, are among the names that could tickle the HFPA’s celebrity fancy. Also, “The Founder” was a focused Globes push for the Weinstein Co., so keep an eye on Michael Keaton.

Predictions:
Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”)
Andrew Garfield (“Hacksaw Ridge”)
Tom Hanks (“Sully”)
Viggo Mortensen (“Captain Fantastic”)
Denzel Washington (“Fences”)
alt. Michael Keaton, “The Founder”

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Amy Adams and Isabelle Huppert feel solid, along with Natalie Portman. Again, “Hidden Figures” was a hit with the group, which ought to bode well for Taraji P. Henson. Stars like Emily Blunt, Jessica Chastain and Marion Cotillard are lurking, and though “Loving” wasn’t a favorite across the board, Ruth Negga could capitalize on a category bereft of Oscar contenders like Annette Bening, Emma Stone and Annette Bening.

Predictions:
Amy Adams (“Arrival”)
Taraji P. Henson (“Hidden Figures”)
Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”)
Ruth Negga (“Loving”)
Natalie Portman (“Jackie”)
alt. Emily Blunt (“The Girl on the Train”)

BEST ACTOR – COMEDY or MUSICAL
Here is where a Warren Beatty mention feels the most likely, and of course Ryan Gosling (who could even double-dip in the category with “The Nice Guys”) is a lock. Hugh Grant received lead placement for “Florence Foster Jenkins” here, despite being a supporting Oscar player, and should glide in as a result. Stars like George Clooney and even Ryan Reynolds are in play, and a number of members liked “War Dogs,” so a Jonah Hill surprise could be floating around.

Predictions:
Warren Beatty (“Rules Don’t Apply”)
Robert De Niro (“The Comedian”)
Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”)
Hugh Grant (“Florence Foster Jenkins”)
Ryan Reynolds (“Deadpool”)
alt. George Clooney (“Hail, Caesar!”)

BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY or MUSICAL
Emma Stone and Annette Bening are the sure bets. Given that Meryl Streep is receiving the group’s Cecil B. DeMille Award, there’s a possibility they pass over her here. There’s a relatively deep bench to pull from, with Kate Beckinsale, Sally Field, Hailee Steinfeld and Renee Zellweger all possible.

Predictions:
Kate Beckinsale (“Love & Friendship”)
Annette Bening (“20th Century Women”)
Emma Stone (“La La Land”)
Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”)
Renee Zellweger (“Bridge Jones’s Baby”)
alt. Hailee Steinfeld (“The Edge of Seventeen”)

See below for predictions in all other film categories. Nominees will be announced Monday, Dec. 12 at 5:15am PT.

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”)
Jeff Bridges (“Hell or High Water”)
Kevin Costner (“Hidden Figures”)
Dev Patel (“Lion”)
Michael Shannon (“Nocturnal Animals”)
alt. Ralph Fiennes (“A Bigger Splash”)

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis (“Fences”)
Naomie Harris (“Moonlight”)
Nicole Kidman (“Lion”)
Helen Mirren (“Eye in the Sky”)
Michelle Williams (“Manchester by the Sea”)
alt. Janelle Monae (“Hidden Figures”)

Best Director
Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”)
Clint Eastwood (“Sully”)
Mel Gibson (“Hacksaw Ridge”)
Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”)
Martin Scorsese (“Silence”)
alt. Tom Ford (“Nocturnal Animals”)

Best Screenplay
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“La La Land”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
alt. “Nocturnal Animals”

Best Motion Picture – Animated
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Moana”
“My Life as a Zucchini”
“Sing”
“Zootopia”
alt. “Sausage Party”

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
“Afterimage”
“Elle”
“Land of Mine”
“Neruda”
“Toni Erdmann”
alt. “Julieta”

Best Original Score
“Arrival”
“Jackie”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
alt. “The BFG”

Best Original Song
“Runnin'” from “Hidden Figures”
“City of Stars” from “La La Land”
“How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana”
“Go Now” from “Sing Street”
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from “Trolls”
alt. “Faith” from “Sing”

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