Open Road’s romantic comedy “Mother’s Day” should gross almost $4 million Friday and finish the weekend around $11 million, with New Line’s Key and Peele action-comedy “Keanu” following closely with a $3.5 million Friday and a $10 million weekend. Gramercy’s “Ratchet & Clank” will earn about $1.8 million on Friday for a $7 million weekend.
Meanwhile, Disney’s “The Jungle Book” will decline by only 40% and finish the weekend with a 17-day domestic total in the $245 million range. If it hits $36 million this weekend, it would be the 10th-highest third weekend haul of all time, replacing “Iron Man 3” at $35.8 million.
The weekend is something of a prelude to what’s widely expected to be a massive domestic opening on May 6 for “Captain America: Civil War” with forecasts of nearly $200 million. Disney-Marvel’s superhero tentpole took in an impressive $37.8 million from 30 international markets within two days.
Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst with comScore, said moviegoers are already focused on “Civil War.”
“This weekend truly is the calm before the proverbial storm that is ‘Captain America: Civil War’ and as such, three wide release newcomers will jockey for position before the tsunami wave of attention and interest that the kick off film of the summer movie season will create in the marketplace,” he added.
“‘Mother’s Day,’ ‘Keanu’ and ‘Ratchet & Clank’ offer three very different movie experiences, each with a different MPAA rating and all chasing different audiences and, along with the continued success of ‘The Jungle Book,’ should power a fairly solid pre-summer weeken,” he said.
“Keanu,” starring Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key, showed some traction at Thursday night previews with $560,000, while “Mother’s Day” was soft with $225,000. “Keanu,” which opened the South by Southwest festival last March, had been forecast to finish the weekend with $10 million to $12 million at 2,658 sites. Reviews have been positive, earning it a 79% “fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
“Mother’s Day,” starring Jennifer Aniston, Julia Roberts and Jason Sudeikis, and directed by Garry Marshall, is relying on star power. The ensemble also includes Timothy Olyphant, Margo Martindale, Shay Mitchell, Britt Robertson, Héctor Elizondo, Jack Whitehall and Jon Lovitz.
Reviews for “Mother’s Day,” which opens at 3,035 sites, have been overwhelmingly negative with a 7% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
Expectations have been muted for Gramercy’s launch of “Ratchet & Clank,” based on the 14-year-old video game franchise, that’s opening at 2,891 locations.
With the box office nearing the end of the first third of the year, year-to-date domestic grosses were $3.5 billion as of Wednesday, according to comScore. That’s up 7.6% over the same point in 2015, due to a trio of films — “Deadpool” with $360 million, “Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice” at $320 million and “Zootopia” at $318 million — along with “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” taking in $284 million this year after grossing $651 million during the last two weeks of 2015.