Does digital data offer indicators that can be used to monitor marketing effectiveness and predict box office success even before awareness turns into intent? Movie Pilot – which studies social data and box office trends – analyzes this weekend’s new movies across Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Google (the methodology behind the numbers is laid out in the appendix below) over the seven days leading up to their release, when marketing campaigns are at their peak.
“Finding Dory” arrives 13 years after the beloved “Finding Nemo” delighted audiences and is set for a jaw-dropping total. The film is ready to overtake “Shrek the Third” ($121 million) as the biggest animated movie opening of all time.
As always, the target for animated pics is families, so marketing has targeted parents and children. A selection of influencers have been posting their tours around Pixar studios on Twitter, Instagram and Snapchat. The movie has had its own Dory Snapchat lens, as well as a selection of quotes to mime along to on Dubsmash.
With more than half a million tweets, “Finding Dory” has really cooked up a storm of nostalgia and looks to top $130 million for the weekend.
“Central Intelligence,” Warner Bros
Moviepilot Prediction: $38 million
The big draw of “Central Intelligence” is the mega popular duo heading up the cast: Kevin Hart and Dwayne Johnson. The two are at the height of their popularity and there isn’t a bigger hitting partnership in the social media game.
Snapchat has been a central pillar of the campaign and Johnson and Hart participated in the first ever Snapchat HQ fan Q&A. The event was broadcast via Johnson and Hart’s Snapchat accounts and highlighted in the Los Angeles story, alongside a sponsored filter on release day. They also joined Twitter’s HQ in New York as National Best Friends Day ambassadors. The duo kicked off a Twitter Q&A with a live Periscope video inviting friends to ask questions, as well as live streaming intros to fan screenings around the country.
Finally, a custom mobile game was launched titled “Central IntelliDASH” in addition to a custom gif creator. Fans were encouraged to share and challenge friends to the “Central Intelligence” mobile game experience while playing as either Johnson or Hart. They were also able to insert themselves into clips from the movie via the “Central IntelliGIF” creator.
While families will go see “Finding Dory,” everybody else should flock to “Central Intelligence” so this should earn up to $40 million this weekend.
Phil Walden is Director of Digital Strategy at Movie Pilot, a social media driven movie community reaching 15 million users every month. Based on community data, Movie Pilot helps studios to optimize their digital media campaigns, identifying, analyzing and activating the right audiences. The company works with studios like Focus Features, 20th Century Fox, Sony and A24.