Does digital data offer indicators that can be used to monitor marketing effectiveness and predict box office success even before awareness turns into intent? Moviepilot – which studies social data and box office trends – analyzes this weekend’s new movies across Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Google (the methodology behind the numbers is laid out in the appendix below) over the seven days leading up to their release, when marketing campaigns are at their peak.
“Captain America: Civil War,” Disney
Moviepilot Prediction: $208 million
With Warner Bros.’ “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” in the rearview, Marvel’s back with a superhero battle of its own, pitting the teams of Captain America and Iron Man against each other in “Captain America: Civil War.” Marvel is set to emerge victorious in the box office battle, with an opening of $200 million-plus this weekend.
The marketing for “Civil War” has played on the premise of the movie, urging fans to choose a side, reminiscent of the “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” campaign where people could lend their allegiance to the light or dark side of the force. Twitter has played a crucial role in this, encouraging fans to tweet their support for their favorite hero. Various celebrities, including WWE superstars, have thrown their weight between both heroes with endorsements. The cast even recorded personalized greetings for fans either lamenting or celebrating which side they chose. The cast also did a Q&A with Twitter Movies.
There has also been a healthy dose of real-world marketing with the WHIH Newsfront account tweeting updates as if the events in the Marvel Universe were happening in real life. The conflict at the centre of the movie hangs around the “Sokovia Accords,” which was introduced to fans in previous installments. This account has therefore worked to flesh out the background behind this plot-driving legislation.
The movie has already opened successfully overseas, and with record ticket pre-sales along with well over half a million tweets this week alone, “Civil War” is set to beat the $170 million “Dawn of Justice” grossed in its opening weekend and top $200 million for its domestic debut.
Tobias Bauckhage (@tbauckhage) is co-founder and CEO of moviepilot.com, a social-media-driven movie community reaching over 30 million Facebook fans and 16 million monthly unique users. Based on community data, Moviepilot helps studios to optimize their social media campaigns, identifying, analyzing and activating the right audiences. The company works with studios like 20th Century Fox, Focus Features and Sony.