×
You will be redirected back to your article in seconds

Digital Tracking: ‘Captain America: Civil War’ Set to Overtake ‘Batman v Superman’

How Moviepilot sees this week’s wide releases shaping up on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Google

Does digital data offer indicators that can be used to monitor marketing effectiveness and predict box office success even before awareness turns into intent? Moviepilot – which studies social data and box office trends – analyzes this weekend’s new movies across Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Google (the methodology behind the numbers is laid out in the appendix below) over the seven days leading up to their release, when marketing campaigns are at their peak.

Captain America: Civil War,” Disney
Moviepilot Prediction: $208 million

With Warner Bros.’ “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” in the rearview, Marvel’s back with a superhero battle of its own, pitting the teams of Captain America and Iron Man against each other in “Captain America: Civil War.” Marvel is set to emerge victorious in the box office battle, with an opening of $200 million-plus this weekend.

The marketing for “Civil War” has played on the premise of the movie, urging fans to choose a side, reminiscent of the “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” campaign where people could lend their allegiance to the light or dark side of the force. Twitter has played a crucial role in this, encouraging fans to tweet their support for their favorite hero. Various celebrities, including WWE superstars, have thrown their weight between both heroes with endorsements. The cast even recorded personalized greetings for fans either lamenting or celebrating which side they chose. The cast also did a Q&A with Twitter Movies.

There has also been a healthy dose of real-world marketing with the WHIH Newsfront account tweeting updates as if the events in the Marvel Universe were happening in real life. The conflict at the centre of the movie hangs around the “Sokovia Accords,” which was introduced to fans in previous installments. This account has therefore worked to flesh out the background behind this plot-driving legislation.

The movie has already opened successfully overseas, and with record ticket pre-sales along with well over half a million tweets this week alone, “Civil War” is set to beat the $170 million “Dawn of Justice” grossed in its opening weekend and top $200 million for its domestic debut.

————

Tobias Bauckhage (@tbauckhage) is co-founder and CEO of moviepilot.com, a social-media-driven movie community reaching over 30 million Facebook fans and 16 million monthly unique users. Based on community data, Moviepilot helps studios to optimize their social media campaigns, identifying, analyzing and activating the right audiences. The company works with studios like 20th Century Fox, Focus Features and Sony.

Popular on Variety

More Digital

  • Verizon Stream TV

    Stream TV Review: Verizon’s New Streaming Device Is One Odd Duck

    Verizon has an answer to Roku, but it’s not talking much about it: The mobile carrier quietly released a new streaming device this week that promises to bring services like HBO, Hulu and YouTube to your TV. Dubbed Stream TV, the device is a solid streamer based on Google’s Android TV platform, albeit with a [...]

  • Hulu With Live TV Full Channel

    Hulu Hiking Price of Live TV Service 22%, to $55 per Month

    Hulu is implementing its second price increase in less than a year for its Hulu With Live TV product — with the base package of 60-plus live channels increasing 22%, to $54.99 per month. The price hike on the monthly base price of Hulu With Live TV will go into effect Dec. 18 for all [...]

  • Hulu With Live TV

    Hulu Live TV Tops Sling TV as No. 1 Streaming Pay-TV Service, Analysts Estimate

    Hulu With Live TV has edged out Dish Network’s Sling TV to take the crown as the biggest virtual pay-television service in the U.S., according to new analyst estimates. They were among the only winners amid the cord-cutting carnage that slashed through the sector in the third quarter. As of the end of the third [...]

  • Mubi India

    Mubi Launches Two VoD Channels in India

    Film specialist streaming platform Mubi launched on Friday in India with two channels, Mubi India and Mubi World. The channels are available together for an introductory offer of INR 199 ($2.75) for three months. Thereafter the channels will cost INR 499 ($7) a month or INR 4788 ($66.75) annually. For Mubi India, a channel dedicated [...]

  • U.K. Producer Barcroft Studios Sold to

    U.K.-Based Producer Barcroft Studios Sold to Future in $30 Million Deal

    Barcroft Studios has been bought by Future in a £23.5 million ($30.1 million) deal. The U.K.-based production outfit specializes in factual fare for channels and platforms, and its own branded channels on the likes of YouTube. Future is a U.K.-listed print and online publishing and events business. Sam Barcroft will stay on as CEO at [...]

More From Our Brands

Access exclusive content