Does digital data offer indicators that can be used to monitor marketing effectiveness and predict box office success even before awareness turns into intent? Moviepilot — which studies social data and box office trends — analyzes this weekend’s new movies across Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Google over the seven days leading up to their release, when marketing campaigns are at their peak.
“God’s Not Dead 2,” Pure Flix
Moviepilot Prediction: $12 million
Most movies are running for cover from the box office destruction caused by “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” last weekend, but “God’s Not Dead 2” is one title that is daring to take on the caped crusader and Clark Kent’s alter-ego. The original opened to a very successful $9.2 million in 2014 and led a stream of faith-based movies that did well at the box office, including “Heaven is for Real” and “War Room,”
“God’s Not Dead 2” stars Melissa Joan-Hart and Jesse Metcalfe in the lead roles, and has followed the usual tactic of repeatedly hitting religious communities with ads. While there have been several other movies targeting this audience recently, a wide release on over 2,000 screens and positive sentiment from the last movie should see “God’s Not Dead 2” take well over $10 million for the weekend.
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Tobias Bauckhage (@tbauckhage) is co-founder and CEO of moviepilot.com, a social-media-driven movie community reaching more than 29 million Facebook fans and 30 million monthly unique users. Based on community data, Moviepilot helps studios to optimize their social media campaigns, identifying, analyzing and activating the right audiences. The company works with studios like Focus Features, 20th Century Fox and A24.