×
You will be redirected back to your article in seconds

Digital Tracking: ‘Conjuring 2’ Scaring Up Box Office Victory

How Moviepilot sees this week’s wide releases shaping up on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Google

Does digital data offer indicators that can be used to monitor marketing effectiveness and predict box office success even before awareness turns into intent? Movie Pilot – which studies social data and box office trends – analyzes this weekend’s new movies across Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Google (the methodology behind the numbers is laid out in the appendix below) over the seven days leading up to their release, when marketing campaigns are at their peak.

The Conjuring 2,” Warner Bros
Moviepilot Prediction: $33 million

If ever a movie deserved a sequel in recent times, it’s James Wan’s smash hit “The Conjuring,” which scared audiences and critics alike, spawning spinoff “Annabelle” and now another movie of its own lineage. This time Wan revisits the case files of the Warrens and transports us to London to investigate “The Enfield Poltergeist.”

While sequels have been made to suffer this year, “The Conjuring 2” looks like it has the chops to fare well – it’s scored a deluge of tweets, trailer views and positive sentiments from both critics and fans, and it’s also the first big horror movie to open in quite some time. We’ve seen a lot of micro-budget hits, but nothing on this many screens. We wouldn’t expect “The Conjuring 2” to open too close to its predecessor, rather closer to the realm of “The Purge: Anarchy” and its cousin “Annabelle,” which both topped $30 million.

Wan has built quite the name for himself over the past few years, partly thanks to his success with the original movie, and he’s put his full social media weight behind this project. Wan has taken part in a Twitter Q&A alongside countless personal appearances and Instagram posts. The digital campaign also sought to get fans involved with the #ConjureYourScare activation, where fans could share their own reactions to the trailer’s scariest moments.

Warcraft,” Universal
Moviepilot Prediction: $28 million

Warcraft” has already had a monstrous start overseas, amassing almost $200 million so far and dominating in China – that alone goes to demonstrate the massive popularity of the Blizzard Entertainment video game on which the movie is based.

Success abroad alleviates some of the pressure on the domestic performance and it’s interesting to see how things will pan out for this adaptation as gaming audiences are hard to motivate to come out to theaters. “Hardcore Henry” heavily targeted gamers earlier this year, but came in under modest expectations. After “Warcraft” there are plenty of video adaptations on the horizon, including “Assassins’ Creed” from 20th Century Fox. So far, things are looking good in this department.

Aside from hardcore gaming fans, it’s younger, family and fantasy audiences who will help make or break “Warcraft,” as shown by a heavy presence on Snapchat where younger audiences can be readily engaged, and a real life “capture the flag” battle on YouTube. “Warcraft” started strongly last night and could top our expectation of a $28 million opening.

Now You See Me 2,” Lionsgate/Summit
Moviepilot Prediction: $25 million

This week’s second sequel is “Now You See Me 2,” looking to build on the surprise success of the original from three years ago. Again, while it has been a tough year for most sequels without spandex-clad heroes, “Now You See Me 2” looks like it should hold up well.

The heart of the digital effort has been the #LookCloser campaign, featuring visual tricks and an in-depth look at the art of magic, alongside a contest encouraging fans to upload their own magic tricks. The coolest element of the campaign was the  “NYSM2 Mobile Magic” mobile app, which isn’t just an app, but also stands on its own as an augment reality interactive feature, a real sleight-of-hand instructional video resource (created in partnership with magic experts and NYSM2 consultants Theory 11) and a fun 3 card monte mini-game.

Super fans were rewarded with an immersive experience on the official site, scrolling through to gradually unfold more content pieces. They were also able to enter a contest by engaging with the trailer through a Shazam integration, and they need no encouragement to play with the movie’s Snapchat lens which went live on Thursday. Buzzfeed also produced a cool video showcasing amazing kid magicians.

Most of the cast members return and there have been some new additions, including Dave Franco. Daniel Radcliffe took part in a Q&A as a “Now You See Me 2” Twitter Moment, while others stars like Mark Ruffalo have been DubSmashing the film’s best lines. All in, “Now You See Me 2” will likely pull in a total in the mid-20s.

_____________

Phil Walden is Director of Digital Strategy at Movie Pilot, a social media driven movie community reaching 15 million users every month. Based on community data, Movie Pilot helps studios to optimize their digital media campaigns, identifying, analyzing and activating the right audiences. The company works with studios like Focus Features, 20th Century Fox, Sony and A24.

More Digital

  • BURBANK, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 18: (EDITORIAL

    Dax Shepard, Bobby Bones, 'Breakfast Club' Among iHeartRadio Podcast Awards Winners

    iHeartRadio launched its first ever Podcast Awards on Friday (January 18) in Los Angeles. Among the winners in 22 categories were “Whine Down with Jana Kramer” (Best Entertainment TV Podcast); “Armchair Expert with Dax Shepard (Breakout Podcast); “Bobbycast” (Music Podcast); and “The Breakfast Club” (Best Multicultural Podcast). The winners were determined by iHeartRadio listeners. Taking the top prize of Podcast [...]

  • Velvet Buzzsaw trailer

    Netflix Original Movies: What to Look Forward To in 2019

    Following the biggest fourth-quarter worldwide subscriber gain ever and some controversy around increased prices in the U.S., Netflix looks to keep its momentum going into 2019. From Jan. 18 through March, the streaming site will release 10 original films, including action-packed thrillers, a post-apocalyptic sci-fi, quirky comedies, inspirational dramas, an artistic horror movie and a viral [...]

  • The Beatles Eight Days a Week

    Imagine's Documentary Arm Sets First-Look Pact With Apple (EXCLUSIVE)

    Brian Grazer and Ron Howard’s Imagine Documentaries has set a first-look pact with Apple to develop non-fiction features and series. The deal comes as Imagine is investing heavily in the premium non-fiction arena. The company in June recruited RadicalMedia veteran Justin Wilkes to head Imagine Documentaries as president. The deal suggests that Apple sees docu [...]

  • Walt Disney HQ LA

    Disney Unveils Financial Data for DTC Unit, Sets April 11 for Investor Presentation

    Disney has rejiggered its business segments for earnings reporting to make room for the new unit housing its global streaming operations. Disney on Friday released restated earnings for fiscal 2018, 2017 and 2016 to give investors and financial analysts better visibility into its spending on the launch of the Disney Plus, ESPN Plus and other [...]

  • Facebook Logo

    Release of Docs to Reveal How Facebook Made Money Off Children

    Documents related to a 2012 lawsuit against Facebook in which children, sometimes unwittingly, spent their parents’ money on games via the social site will be unsealed, according to a Monday ruling from the United States District Court. The court gave Facebook ten days to file unredacted documents in accordance with the ruling. The 2012 lawsuit [...]

  • Facebook Logo

    Facebook Sets Up New Product Group for AR Glasses (Report)

    Facebook has restructured its augmented and virtual reality research division and set up a new group tasked with building augmented reality (AR) glasses, according to a new Business Insider report. Facebook acknowledged the move in a statement given to the publication, saying that the move affected “a few hundred people.” The group has already built [...]

More From Our Brands

Access exclusive content